AH challenge: expanding German & Italian unifications beyond the usual suspects

Eurofed

Banned
As we all know, making the German and Italian unifications more successful than IOTL is actually not that difficult. With a few appropriate PoDs and butterflies in 1848-49 or 1866-71, Germany may easily find itself with Austria, Bohemia-Moravia, all of Alsace and Lorraine, Luxemburg, and Slovenia, whileas Italy may find itself with Trento, South Tyrol, Gorizia-Gradisca, Istria, Dalmatia, Slovenia, Nice, Savoy, the Riviera, and Corsica. Been there, written or read TLs about it.

No, what I'm interested in here is how the German and Italian unifications could be plausibly wanked to include even more "Germanic" or "Latin" stuff or historical/geopolitical/irredentist claims, than the above list, respectively. The list is not exclusive but any means, but say any of Netherlands, Flanders, Denmark, Lodz area in Poland, or German Switzerland, for Germany, or Malta, Italian Switzerland, the Rhone area, the Balearic islands, Albania, or Montenegro, for Italy.
 
Last edited:
Hmm. Palmerstone was still talking about the "German Baltic" in the 1850s and planning to give it to Prussia as part of his plan to "shut Russia out of Europe", and the German grip on national life only really loosened in the 1880s with "Russification", which actually opened more opportunities for the ordinary people of Estonia and Latvia. Some whacky geopolitics resembling Palmerstone's fantasies transferring those provinces to a German state before Russification might be worthy of consideration.
 
No, what I'm interested in here is how the German and Italian unifications could be plausibly wanked to include even more "Germanic" or "Latin" stuff or historical/geopolitical/irredentist claims, than the above list, respectively. The list is not exclusive but any means, but say any of Netherlands, Flanders, Denmark, Lodz area in Poland, or German Switzerland, for Germany.
If you want a POD in the 19th century you need a Germany that is willing to conquer those areas, as they all had their own national identity. It is possible of course. You just need a very aggressive Germany that is either strong enough to beat any opposing powers (as it is very likely Britain France and Russia will oppose them) or an extremely skilled diplomatic force. Go back early enough and various regions become more likely, a POD during the middleages could prevent the Swiss or Dutch national identity (although go back early enough and you could easily butterfly away German unification).
 

Eurofed

Banned
If you want a POD in the 19th century you need a Germany that is willing to conquer those areas, as they all had their own national identity. It is possible of course. You just need a very aggressive Germany that is either strong enough to beat any opposing powers (as it is very likely Britain France and Russia will oppose them) or an extremely skilled diplomatic force. Go back early enough and various regions become more likely, a POD during the middleages could prevent the Swiss or Dutch national identity (although go back early enough and you could easily butterfly away German unification).

Well, a PoD during the Middle Ages can certainly prevent the Swiss, Dutch, and Czech national identities, as those areas are assimilated into the German polity. The easiest way to do this is to allow the Ottonians or the Hohenstaufens to turn the HRE into a successful centralized empire. Even better, this would prevent the division of Germany and Italy into separate nation-states. A fascinating subject, surely (one I hope one day to be able and do a decent TL about), but this is a bit beyond what I meant here.

Now, as it concerns a 19th century PoD, which optimally builds on my "more successful 1866" one, Napoleon III could be pushed to violate the neutrality of Belgium during the Franco-Prussian-Italian war (Italy joins Prussia ITTL), especially if the war involves Luxemburg, and this could lead Netherlands to intervene in the war, and accept the partition of Belgium, and some form of union with the German Empire. Total political union is unlikely, of course, short of German conquest, but the war could produce a feeling of "Germanic brotherhood", and they could form a confederation, after the war. As it concerns Denmark, could they intervene on the side of France out of revanchist feelings, giving Bismarck the perfect excuse to annex it.

Now, if this is timed to happen as a result of F-P-I war, France is powerless to oppose it, of course. Britain would not of course be amused too much at German control of Netherlands/Flanders, or German annexation of Denmark, but Russia is unlikely to care overmuch. And anyway, Germany can always win British or Russian approval by supporting or opposing Russian expansion in the Balkans. Probably annexation of Denmark is somewhat easier for London to swallow, than a German-Dutch-Flemish confederation.
 
Last edited:
I know we've had this discussion before, but I repeat: I remain very dubious about the Czechs conveniently vanishing because of Ottonians. The fact is, before the development of modern political nationalism there was no reason for anyone to care what language the peasants of Bohemia or Moravia spoke or attempt to change it (and how, before the railway, telegram, and public school, does one even go about such a scheme?), and we don't need Czech to survive until *nationalism as anything more than a peasent language, which it absolutely was in 1815. There's strong precedent, not only in Czech history, but in Slovakia and in Latvia and Estonia, for the vitality of the small nations. I'm not sure they can be never Germanised, but you assume it very casually. The Czechs aren't by any means in the category of the Swiss and Dutch.
 

Eurofed

Banned
I know we've had this discussion before, but I repeat: I remain very dubious about the Czechs conveniently vanishing because of Ottonians. The fact is, before the development of modern political nationalism there was no reason for anyone to care what language the peasants of Bohemia or Moravia spoke or attempt to change it (and how, before the railway, telegram, and public school, does one even go about such a scheme?), and we don't need Czech to survive until *nationalism as anything more than a peasent language, which it absolutely was in 1815. There's strong precedent, not only in Czech history, but in Slovakia and in Latvia and Estonia, for the vitality of the small nations. I'm not sure they can be never Germanised, but you assume it very casually. The Czechs aren't by any means in the category of the Swiss and Dutch.

There is not only Slovak, Latvian, or Estonian. There is also Sorbian and Breton. You are far too trusting that the OTL literary revival of Czech can survive eight or ten centuries of butterflies unscathed. This is far, far from guaranteed or even likely, in a state that would have a millennium of political and cultural unity of the ruling elites and urban trading middle classes. Without the literary revival, Czech is doomed to become a fringe linguistic relic like Sorbian and Breton, as German public schools first, mass media later would efficiently stomp peasant dialects out. Germanization of Bohemia-Moravia is not guaranteed, but it is the most likely and plausible outcome.

In a modern unitary HRE, the only almost sure constant is the survival of German and Italian linguistic areas, since they would be too balanced demographically and economically ever for one to prevail on the other. However, *German and *Italian might be somewhat different, since the "imperial dialects" that become their basis may easily differ.
 
Last edited:
There is not only Slovak, Latvian, or Estonian. There is also Sorbian and Breton.

Estonia, Latvia, and Slovakia are notable for not having a Charles' University or an ancient kingdom. Czechia is not exactly the same as any of these place and has advantages over pretty much all of them. I said I wasn't claiming Czechia couldn't be Germanised, and France looms large in my mind, but I think your views are politically skewed here.

You are far too trusting that the OTL literary revival of Czech can survive eight or ten centuries of butterflies unscathed. This is far, far from guaranteed or even likely, in a state that would have a millennium of political and cultural unity of the ruling elites and urban trading middle classes.

I really don't see what's so differant here from Slovakia. Again, I favour a maybe-maybe-not interpretation.

Without the literary revival, Czech is doomed to become a fringe linguistic relic like Sorbian and Breton, as German public schools first, mass media later would efficiently stomp peasant dialects out.

Which explains why Kovno and Vilna are Russian cities... wait...

There's no universal formula here. In Lithuania, all Muravyov's "Russian letters" did was make Lithuania a society with miserably poor literacy. There are lots of factors going on to do with industrialisation, which mean Czechia can go either way easily.

Germanization of Bohemia-Moravia is not guaranteed, but it is the most likely and plausible outcome.

Did Czech really have so much in its favour in 1815?
 

Eurofed

Banned
Estonia, Latvia, and Slovakia are notable for not having a Charles' University or an ancient kingdom. Czechia is not exactly the same as any of these place and has advantages over pretty much all of them. I said I wasn't claiming Czechia couldn't be Germanised, and France looms large in my mind, but I think your views are politically skewed here.

Well, I'm not claiming that Czechia would surely or necessarily be Germanized, either, but I tend to think that in a successful HRE that takes the road of France as early as the XI or XIII century, the assimilation pattern that France developed would mostly repeat itself, except for the fact that Italy is far too big and rich to ever be assimilated by Germany and viceversa. There may be exceptions, but I tend to think that the mindset that produced the 19th century literary revival of Czech, and saved it, alongside several other little nations' languages, would be butterflied away in the rather more universalist worldview created in Europe by a believable successor of the Roman empire existing for a millennium.

I really don't see what's so differant here from Slovakia.

Except that united Germany would dwarf Czechia rather more than Hungary did with Slovakia and its other minorities.

Did Czech really have so much in its favour in 1815?

The remarkable frailty of the Habsburg dynastic empire certainly counts.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Anyway, let's steer back to the original issue. Any comment or ideas about Denmark and the Low Countries becoming involved in the 1870 war ?
 
As we all know, making the German and Italian unifications more successful than IOTL is actually not that difficult. With a few appropriate PoDs and butterflies in 1848-49 or 1866-71, Germany may easily find itself with Austria, Bohemia-Moravia, all of Alsace and Lorraine, Luxemburg, and Slovenia, whileas Italy may find itself with Trento, South Tyrol, Gorizia-Gradisca, Istria, Dalmatia, Slovenia, Nice, Savoy, the Riviera, and Corsica. Been there, written or read TLs about it.

How much of Alsace-Lorraine? And how much of the parts not taken by Germany were German-speaking/identified?

Those are not asked in a sarcastic/hostile manner at all if they seem so-I'm genuinely curious.
 

Eurofed

Banned
How much of Alsace-Lorraine? And how much of the parts not taken by Germany were German-speaking/identified?

Those are not asked in a sarcastic/hostile manner at all if they seem so-I'm genuinely curious.

Actually, the 1871 border was very close to the etnolinguistic German-French divide. But here I'm assuming that Germans, for economic and strategic reasons, and annex pretty much all of the historical provinces of Alsace and Lorraine, which had belonged to the HRE up to XVII-XVIII century, up the Maas-Meuse river. The river is not the exact historical border, it went somwhat eastward in northern Lorraine, and westward in southern Lorraine. But I'm pretty much sure that the river is the natural border that the Germans would enforce, for obvious strategic reasons.

For pretty much the same reasoning, economic and strategic concerns, I assume that Italians could go beyond the claim of Italian-speaking Nice and annex all of the French Riviera, up to Hyeres.

That's how I have set up things in my "a different 1866" TL.

Italy gets a rather more efficient government in 1861-66 (either Cavour survives, or an ATL more talented statesman emerges). As a result, Italian economy and state-building are managed rather better, and Italy reaches 1866 with a much fitter military (mostly, a better high command, since the bulk of the army and navy were actually already rather good, although the Italian army gets shaped on the Prussian model, which definitely helps). They seek a strong alliance with Prussia against Austria. The 1866 war happens.

Italy wins decisive victories on land and at sea against Austria, as good as the Prussian ones. The Austrian army is effectively destroyed, the navy is decimated, and the Italians occupy Trento and Kustenland, and land in Dalmatia. They claim all of those lands at the peace table. Spurred by their ally's success, King Wilhelm and the Prussian generals get greedy and put irresistible pressure on Bismarck to get Prussia its hefty slice of Habsburg flesh. So Otto reluctantly claims Bohemia-Moravia.

Crying foul about the balance of power, Napoleon III threatens war. With their armies massed in the East, Prussia and Italy are forced to compromise on their claims, but they do not forgive nor forget. Prussia annexes Hanover, Saxony, Austrian Silesia, and the German-majority districts of northern Bohemia-Moravia (effectively, the Sudetenland, except the parts bordering German Austria), but leaves Czechia alone. Italy annexes Veneto, Trento, and Gorizia-Gradisca, but leaves Trieste, Istria, and Dalmatia alone.

Prussian-Italian alliance is confirmed and strenghtened, France is alarmed at their growing might, and seeks a pretext to cut down the upstart duo. Austria, utterly humiliated by the defeat, slips into growing domestic unrest.

The casus belli for France comes a couple of years later, when it unsuccessfully tries to annex Luxemburg, and is vetoed by Prussia, and Italian patriots overthrow the Pope, which France protects. War explodes between France and the Italo-Prussian alliance. Despite the overconfident expectations of the French, they get their butts handed them on a plate. Austria makes moves to join France, but resistance by Pan-German nationalist opinion brings it further on the brink of revolution, so it backs down.

Prussia unifies Germany, which annexes Luxemburg, Alsace, and Lorraine, up to the Maas/Meuse. Italy annexes Savoy, Corsica, Nice, and the Riviera, up to Hyeres, as well as eastern Algeria (Oran). After doing so well twice in a row, the German-Italian partnership is solidified into an irontight strategic and economic bloc.

In the next few years, Austria further spirals into domestic unrest, as the various nationalities fight for power between themselves and against the discredited Habsburg regime. Half-baked attempts at a power-sharing compromise between Germans and Magyars flounder. Revolution explodes in Austria, soon the Habsburg empire collapses completely and is partitioned. Germany gets Austria, Bohemia-Moravia, and South Tyrol, Italy gets Trieste, Istria, and Dalmatia, Slovenia is divided between Germany and Italy, Russia gets Krakow, Galicia, and Bukovina, Galicia, Hungary is set up as an independent kingdom with Slovakia, Transylvania, Voijvodina, and a federal union with Croatia.

(I have also made a variant where the Habsburg collapse happens immediately after the F-P-I war, Franz Joseph appeals to Russia for help as in 1848, Germany and Italy canot intervene as their armies are still in France, and Russian bayonets barely stabilize the Habsburg regime, even if Austria becomes a wholly authoritarian and centralized Russian vassal, Russia still gets Galicia for its trouble, and Magyar/Pan-German nationalism simmers under the surface. But this is not the outcome I use here).

The point of this thread is that I got curious whether it might be possible to insert further gains for Germany and Italy in this TL, such as Germany getting Denmark or Netherlands-Flanders as a result of the F-P-I war.

I suspect it may be possible for Denmark to misjudge the outcome of the war completely, join France seeking a revanche for its recent defeat in the 1864 war, and be quickly curbstomped by Prussia. This would give Bismarck the perfect excuse to annex it.

Getting Belgium and Netherlands in the fray seems rather more complex. Given that controversy over Luxemburg is one of the casus belli, it might be theoretically possible to have the war expand to the Low Countries, but it seems rather more difficult. Napoleon III is already facing a two-fronts war, even if he totally underestimates Prussia and Italy, even he may have pause before violating the neutrality of Belgium, which would alienate Britain. Maybe the involvement of the Low Countries would best be left for TTL's WWI, even if at that point Germany and Italy would be allied with Britain, which would have strong qualms about a German-Dutch-Flemish union.

Anyway, the TL continues with the onset of the attack of Russia to Turkey. The war is a success, and the Russians armies get in sight of Constantinople, but Britain, scared by Russian control of the Straits, threatens war, soon backed by Germany and Italy.

Bourbon France, which has a Carlist dynastic claim on the throne of Spain, sponsors a Carlist coup in Spain, and a French-Spanish dynastic union is formed.

An international conference is called in the Hague. As pretty much every power but Britain is burdened by war fatigue at this point, there is no great willingness to fight a general war, so reluctantly, a last-ditch compromise is reached.

Russia gains southern Bessarabia and the districts of Ardahan, Artvin, Batum, Kars, Olti, and Beyazit, Romania gets independence and northern Dobruja, Serbia gets independence and a northern slice of Kosovo, Bulgaria gets self-rule in OTL modern borders, Greece gains Thessaly and southern Epirus, Britain gets Cyprus, Italy gets a sphere of influence in Tunisia and Libya, Crete is put under the administration of the Great Powers, Bosnia becomes a self-ruling principality under a sovreign picked by the powers. Montenegro gets independent under an Italian protectorate. The Ottomans keep Albania, Macedonia, most of Kosovo, and Thrace, and they are bound by the powers to enact a strrong set of capitulations and internal reform for their Christian subjects. The powers proscribe every state and principality from enacting abuses on their minorities. France gets assent for its dynastic union with Spain.

France-Spain, slowly recovering from the defeat, and seeking support for revenge against the German-Italian bloc, signs the Dual Entente with Russia (and Austria in the variant TL), building a bloc of reactionary-authoritarian powers. Britain, still wary of Russian expansionism, makes the Quadruple Alliance with Germany, Italy, and Hungary.

I expect that German annexation of Denmark, if it happens as result of Danish intevention in the F-P-I war, would not trouble Britain overmuch. Its main strategic result is that Germany is even more able to keep Russia trapped in the Baltic, after all. German expansion in the Low Countries is a much more serious issue and could create long-term antagonism between Britain and the Italo-German bloc.

I'm not sure at all how Italo-German partition of Switzerland could fit in this TL.
 
Top