AH Challenge: European Russia Only

Starting with a PoD anytime during the reign of Ivan IV of Russia (Ivan the Terrible) create a world where "Russia" consists of lands west of the Urals only.

Can it be done with such a late PoV?
 
Failing to conquer Astrakhan and Kazan may do the trick. Better if coincided with early death of Ivan (no heirs) and some major civil war-like power struggle inside Russia.
It still very difficult to keep Russians out of Siberia completely at this point unless some European power gets there while Russians are busy.

There may be some more elegant PODs, but colonisation of Siberia was run mostly by people who fled from home in search of better life and this factor is very difficult to eliminate at tis time.
 
I think it would be all a matter of someone else getting there first. I have Mongols run them out of most of Siberia in my TL, but in OTL they were worried about other European powers getting access to Siberia through the White Sea. Some of the options raised I think have been the Netherlands, England and Sweden. Some whacky options? Denmark-Norway? Scotland?
 
A unified Scandinavia could squeeze Russia quite a bit. Alternativly, the borders of OTL need not be exactly replicated in a TL. The countries and areas that we percieve as Scandinavia can change a bit.

A Sweden/Norway/Finland entity could project considerable power along the northern coast into Siberia. Or imagine a situation where Sweden ends at Upsala, with some strong european power controlling the Balitc. In either case, move the border of Scandinavia to include the White Sea, and we squeeze Russia.

Still need something else to prevent eastern expansion in the south though.
 
For a POD after 1900, could western intervention in the Russian Revolution (intervention of any possible kind, I guess) have resulted in an earlier balkanisation of Russia? Maybe a split, so the reds control east of the Ural while a rump Tsarist/republican state controls the west with a military alliance with the west.

Probably implausible, but hey.
 
A strong Manchu state in east siberia can stop the expansion of Russia, you just need for the establishment of Qing Empire to fail.
 
Perhaps if the time of troubles lead to a fracturing of Russia into various principalities preventing them from expanding east?
 
Perhaps if the time of troubles lead to a fracturing of Russia into various principalities preventing them from expanding east?

Once they develop decent gunpowder armies, even substantially smaller Russian states could expand into Siberia, at least north of the Steppes: there just wasn't very effective local resistance. Of course, this may lead to a politically divided Siberia, or even an independent one.

Bruce
 
Hmm, what about Ming expansion to the west?

Or could native dynasties make things too hot for the Alt-Russians for a while? What if they could get more guns, then other European powers might be able to get footholds and that changes a lot for the Russians.
 
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You need to keep the Khanate of Sibir going, which requires them to either form a common front with Kazan and Astrakhan (and preferably the Nogai Horde as well) or accept the protection of a foreign Sunni power, most likely the Turks, Kazakhs or Uzbeks, though I guess Persia could work too if Sibir converts to Shiite Islam, as could the Oirats if they take an interest.
 
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I don't see it, really, or at least it isn't easy.

The colonization was done by freebooters hired by minor princes and wealthy merchants who already had some tenuous presense and yasak collection in the North and even across the Urals since the mid-14th c. at latest.

Once the Russians have access to the Urals/Perm and the Chusovaya basin, Sibir will fall, regardless of who they are allied with...unless someone powerful enough can take active interest in preventing the Russians from expanding, and has both the projection ability, the military prowess, and the determination to beat the Russians, and the Tsar is suitably scared and in control of his people.

Crimean Khanate+Nogays+Ottomans seem like a great choice, but the unfortunate thing is, it was tried, over centuries, to no apparent success, in OTL.

Abdul once explored the idea of Astrakhan instead of (rather than in addition to) Vienna. Provided everything goes very smooth for the Ottomans, this time they could beat the Russians and have their Tsar agree to cease expansion of the yasak-paying lands to the East, in favour of the Khanates. Since the Tsars managed to shut down the Mangazeya route when they wanted to, they could maybe do it.

Siberia could not develop rapidly without help from European Russia, at least initially. They all needed food and permanent garrisons to replace and augment the cossacks.

Even so, I cannot see this situation persisting forever. The profit of margin from fur taxes was too great and the opposition too sparse and often ineffective; for Persia or the Ottomans, the reverse is true. They cannot sell the furs easily, and it costs them a lot of effort to support weak allies to no apparent end.
 
You need to keep the Khanate of Sibir going, which requires them to either form a common front with Kazan and Astrakhan (and preferably the Nogai Horde as well) or accept the protection of a foreign Sunni power, most likely the Turks, Kazakhs or Uzbeks, though I guess Persia could work too if Sibir converts to Shiite Islam, as could the Oirats if they take an interest.

Am I the only one here thinking about EU2 of For the Glory when reading this? Yeah...probably...

I think to go along with this, one would need a reason for Muscovy/Russia to have more of an interest in Europe, along with affairs going differently among the Khanates. A more successful more exhaustive venture in the Muscovy company, encouraging closer ties with England, maybe.

A unified front would be beneficial, but given the differences in technology and the fluid nature of alliances, I can't see them holding as long as Russia is interested in expanding east. If nobody leading Russia takes a concerted look west toward becoming a modern European power until Pyotr Velikiy then they're going to be interested in expanding east... Give them a distraction in the west.
 
By that time, Siberia was certain to be colonized by Russia, however, it could still become separate later...

What if for a start the colonization is slower, or at least is mostly funded by and for private enterprises rahter than the state?

Could cossacks be just as (or more) invovled than in OTL despite less Czar influence?

More independent-minded Siberian settlers, who create and enforce own laws and obey Moscow only in name and don't need them for protection (a militia tp protect against mongol/turkic raiders, I assume it must've existed in OTL, but a much larger one?)

Then, during a war in european Russia (or better yet, many wars at the same time!), they'll just declare independence.

If the central government wasn't full of visions of "Russia's Peru", they'd not bother much with reconquer it, if they never had much control there from the start.

The fur hunt and caravans to China was of course an incentive to fight to keep Siberia, but remember that Siberia is not in a position to make a profit of those things without an acces to Europe, the least un-reliable such route is through Russia and the Czars could still take a lot of taxes and tariffs and stuff...

Perhaps the fur tax on the subject citizens of Siberia would be replaced by a fur tribute on the nation of Siberia?

That would lead to a Siberia associated with and subordinate to Russia, but separate and in the 19/20th centuary possible independent...
 
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