I would say 1809 is too early, as Finns of the day were a little more than "natives" ruled by Swedish barons with thin sprinkling of Swedish-speaking intelligentsia here and there. So, 1856, Krimean war continuing with Russia losing it badly (it is far from assured outcome, but let's suppose it did happen, nothing is impossible in a universe where OTL Russo-Ja[anese war happened) and losing Finland as part of peace treaty. Next possibility would be 1905 (basically OTL 1917 collapse happening earlier).