AH Challenge: Dutch Republic overrun in Thirty Years' War

It doesn't matter whether the Hapsburgs, France, or parties unknown do it. How can the Dutch Republic be thoroughly defeated and occupied in the Thirty Years War?
 

Rockingham

Banned
It doesn't matter whether the Hapsburgs, France, or parties unknown do it. How can the Dutch Republic be thoroughly defeated and occupied in the Thirty Years War?
France)
The Swedes achieve a major victory against Austria, thus defeat seems inevitable. The Spanish thus decide to make peace with Sweden, in exchange for keeping the entire Netherlands, they withdraw from the war. The French, fearing the maintenance of Spanish power in the Lowlands, and growing Swedish power, ally with Austria, and are promised the Lowlands including the Dutch Republic, as well as a division of Spain's Italian territories with the Austrian Hapsburgs.

Hapsburgs)
Simple. The Catholic alliance is victorious and and retakes the Republic.

Sweden)The Swedes are victorious, as Gustavus survives, and in the peace treaty, the Swedes are either establish their King as Holy Roman Empire, or create Protestant Empire in the north. The peace treaty assumes the Dutch will be a part of the (formal) empire, but the Dutch decline when made aware of that clause. Thus the Swedes invade to force them into the said empire.
 
France)
The Swedes achieve a major victory against Austria, thus defeat seems inevitable. The Spanish thus decide to make peace with Sweden, in exchange for keeping the entire Netherlands, they withdraw from the war. The French, fearing the maintenance of Spanish power in the Lowlands, and growing Swedish power, ally with Austria, and are promised the Lowlands including the Dutch Republic, as well as a division of Spain's Italian territories with the Austrian Hapsburgs.

Hapsburgs)
Simple. The Catholic alliance is victorious and and retakes the Republic.

Sweden)The Swedes are victorious, as Gustavus survives, and in the peace treaty, the Swedes are either establish their King as Holy Roman Empire, or create Protestant Empire in the north. The peace treaty assumes the Dutch will be a part of the (formal) empire, but the Dutch decline when made aware of that clause. Thus the Swedes invade to force them into the said empire.
I can only see the Spanish doing it in the early 1620s. After the 12 Years Truce had ended in 1621, they had some initial successes, but after Frederick Henry became Stadtholder, the tide turned and Spanish involvement in Germany meant resources in the Lowlands only decreased. Have Spinola be more succesful after taking Breda and march onto Holland and you have a chance.

If the French go for the Lowlands, Spain (which occupies the South) will ally with the Republic to kick them out. The French army at this time was also not as good yet as it would be some decades later. Their involvement in the Thirty Years War was initially limited to funding any enemy of the Habsburgs.

Sweden is just ASB.
If they try something, the Dutch fleet sails into the Baltic to kick Swedish ass. Say goodby to any Swedish Baltic commerce and with it funding for their army.
For all the vaunted GIIA and his army, the Dutch will have Maurice of Nassau and Frederick Henry as commanders, and a bigger and probably better army. It was certainly better funded.


The best chance would be with a Spanish attack of Spinola from the south with some major Imperial offensive from the east. Essentially the same procedure the French tried and almost succeeded in during 1672-1673
 

Rockingham

Banned
1)I can only see the Spanish doing it in the early 1620s. After the 12 Years Truce had ended in 1621, they had some initial successes, but after Frederick Henry became Stadtholder, the tide turned and Spanish involvement in Germany meant resources in the Lowlands only decreased. Have Spinola be more succesful after taking Breda and march onto Holland and you have a chance.

2)If the French go for the Lowlands, Spain (which occupies the South) will ally with the Republic to kick them out. The French army at this time was also not as good yet as it would be some decades later. Their involvement in the Thirty Years War was initially limited to funding any enemy of the Habsburgs.

3)Sweden is just ASB.
If they try something, the Dutch fleet sails into the Baltic to kick Swedish ass. Say goodby to any Swedish Baltic commerce and with it funding for their army.
For all the vaunted GIIA and his army, the Dutch will have Maurice of Nassau and Frederick Henry as commanders, and a bigger and probably better army. It was certainly better funded.


The best chance would be with a Spanish attack of Spinola from the south with some major Imperial offensive from the east. Essentially the same procedure the French tried and almost succeeded in during 1672-1673
1)I said Hapsburgs..... with the combined might of the Hapsburgs and the Catholic alliance, would it be so implausible?

2)Yes, this was assumed, but that doesn't mean the Spanish-Dutch would succeed. Spanish morale would likely be low, seeing as they had switched from the side of the Catholics to that of the Protestants.

3)Bigger army? Larger then the combined forces of Sweden and North Germany? A victory would be totally implausible then for the Swedes? Perhaps in alliance with the French(a division of the Dutch republic with those territories below the Rhine going to France may be plausible?



Anyway, I never claimed these scenarios to be likley. Thats why its a challenge.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Don't forget that in the Disaster year of 1672 the Republic was attacked by England, France, Munster and Cologne. In the end it was victorious.
 
1)I said Hapsburgs..... with the combined might of the Hapsburgs and the Catholic alliance, would it be so implausible?
In that case, I agree. My mistake, I should read better.:)
2)Yes, this was assumed, but that doesn't mean the Spanish-Dutch would succeed. Spanish morale would likely be low, seeing as they had switched from the side of the Catholics to that of the Protestants.
They would probably see it as switching from their own side to still their own side. At this time religion was more an excuse to pursue dynastic interests.
The odds for the Dutch/Spanish alliance are much better than they were in 1672 for just the Dutch.
3)Bigger army? Larger then the combined forces of Sweden and North Germany?
Maybe not immediately. But the North German states only drag the quality down. Also, the logistic are horrible for an attack from the east in this time. Most of the Dutch border regions are marshes with the few roads protected by fortresses. And then the Swedes have to take Groningen, which going by the siege in 1672, was a formidable fortress.
As an illustration, in the Eighty Years War, the spanish once sent an army of ~10,000 men to Groningen. It just DISSAPEARED in the marshes of Drenthe (the region south of Groningen). The armies of Munster and Cologne when they were laying siege to Groningen, also suffered heavily from diseases.
A victory would be totally implausible then for the Swedes?
It would be so improbable it would be close to impossible
Perhaps in alliance with the French(a division of the Dutch republic with those territories below the Rhine going to France may be plausible?
That would resemble the 1672 scenario, with Sweden (and Northern Germany) taking the place of England, Munster and Cologne and the French as they were.
But 1672 did not work and the French are weaker than in 1672, while the Dutch army is significantly larger as they are still at war strength, instead of 1672, when there had been several decades of peace.

In the Seventeenth Century, the Republic was a great power by virtue of its unparallelled wealth, which meant it could afford a very large army (~80-100,000 men) and navy (~80 SotL).
 
Top