AH challenge Delay colonization of the new world as long as possible

ar-pharazon

Banned
So without ASB intervention or any massive event such as widespread, plague, war or meteor strike have the colonization of the new world be delayed for as long as possible.

10 points for 1550.

20 Points for 1600

30 points for 1700

50 points for having the colonization of the new world begin no earlier than 1750.

100 points if you can delay it longer than that.
 
Ottoman Empire establishes a land route on Suez where you can trade your merchant ship for a similar sized “rental” on the other end. If they’re feeling optimistic, they could build a canal across Suez(I mean, it’s just desert). They charge a smallish fee and now people can get across Africa to get to the spice trade. Christopher Columbus has no reason to go around, and colonialism is not established until something happens to the ottomans.
 
Ottoman Empire establishes a land route on Suez where you can trade your merchant ship for a similar sized “rental” on the other end. If they’re feeling optimistic, they could build a canal across Suez(I mean, it’s just desert). They charge a smallish fee and now people can get across Africa to get to the spice trade. Christopher Columbus has no reason to go around, and colonialism is not established until something happens to the ottomans.

The Ottoman Empire didn't even control Suez in the 15th century. And even if that did exist, would it really deter the Portuguese from their expeditions which would have found Brazil sooner or later? Or fishermen who were sailing further and further into the Atlantic by the late 15th century?

And given the Mamlukes/Ottomans could close the canal at any time to enemy nations like Spain, the Spanish have plenty of reasons to want an alternative route.
 
For a 1550, it's probably sufficient to have something bad happen to Henry the navigator and his Group of maritime explorers - later development of caravels etc.

For 1600, I'd try a No Reconquista scenario, since the iberian Muslim states were interwoven in North-west african overland exchange and had little reason to sail around the Coast looking for, well, something.

Much later might require nerfing Europe and Northern Africa rather badly if what is required is really no colonization at all. Slower and much more superficial colonization is more doable until 1750 in many ways, though.
 
Strengthen and prolong both the Emirate of Granada and one central strong berber dynasty in Morocco/North Africa, ensure those polities have navies capable of holding back the Portuguese and the rest of Iberia. This competition will fuel naval tech and desire to navigate past parts of the world known to the Iberians at the time, but with stronger competition and a much stronger & closer threat may help delay things until the 1550s. Also stronger Ottoman support of Granada and Morocco.

So we have the Portugal-Spain-HRE bloc vs Ottoman-French-Granada-Morocco bloc in the 1550s.
 
Ottoman Empire establishes a land route on Suez where you can trade your merchant ship for a similar sized “rental” on the other end. If they’re feeling optimistic, they could build a canal across Suez(I mean, it’s just desert). They charge a smallish fee and now people can get across Africa to get to the spice trade. Christopher Columbus has no reason to go around, and colonialism is not established until something happens to the ottomans.

No need for the rental system if you can just get an ambitious city-state to get Capitulations to set up trading centers at both ends. Maybe as part of a POD that results in, say, Venice getting into a more permanent relationship with the Ottoman state as a tributary of sorts: they concede political control of their Med. and Adriatic possessions to the Sultan after a war but "buy" the right to maintain exclusive trade there and at other key points in the Empire in exchange for an annual tribute and doing "dirty work" as a banker and handling other affairs that are frowned upon by Islamic law. Or Ragusa; historically they were already in such a relationship and, if the Turks muscle out Venice in a more hostile state could be called in to fill the vacuum. Politically, this could work out as a move against the Portugese intrusions into the Indian Ocean trade and the security of the Hajj routes, as commerce development would make it easier to bring in naval stores and establish ship building/repair facilities needed to sustain a threatening warship presence in the region. Plus, if you cut Portugal's line of wealth, drive up her naval expenses, and force her to turn her attention back towards Africa you can shoot any expensive colonization of Brazil in the head.
 
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