The Germans did have a lot of luck but except for the encounter with the Danish Merchant, which started the battle further South than would have occurred otherwise, the luck only started after my 18:00 POD. Beatty's signalling and gunnery was so consistently awful that it cannot be attributed to luck (unless having an incompetent commander of the British battlecruisers is added to the German luck).I thought the Germans already had a lot of luck during the battle. The Royal Navy must have broken a lot of mirrors before the battle, either that or Admirals Jellicoes black cat was drowned.
Fully agree! The British had Queen Elizabeth, Emperor of India and Dreadnought at home and were about to receive three more R class battleships and two battlecruisers. If loses were really heavy, they could ask the French to send some of their 7 dreadnoughts. The most significant immediate military effect might be a loss of superiority in battlecruisers which would allow more German raids, for example against convoys to Norway.I don't think that a truly decisive victory is very plausible, barring utter ineptitude on the part of the Grand Fleet. The british simply outnumber the germans by too much, can probably replace their losses far more rapidly than the germans, and will cut off the engagement if it seems that the High Seas fleet has an opportunity to anaihailate them.
However, a German victory would have likely consequences for Germany, Britain and other countries.
In Germany, there would be a strong temptation to try again. The German Navy would want its incomplete battleships and battlecruisers built as quickly as possible, which would delay U-boat building (and my battle would also favour destroyer building). They might not want war with America because the addition of an American squadron would restore their enemies' overwhelming superiority (they should not have wanted American involvement OTL but here the problems start quicker). If Scheer was not present for the victory (my suggestion), a voice in favour of U-boat warfare might be removed. I suspect that Hipper was politically more cautious (surprisingly sane for an admiral).
Looking to other powers, Romania might perhaps be influenced to avoid joining the war in 1916.
Looking to Britain, one consequence would be more effort on warship building (especially if U-boat warfare is slowed). Even if they survived, Jellicoe and Beatty would not have continued in command as no commision of enquiry could ignore Beatty's incompetence and Jellicoe would be blamed for his subordinates' errors. That has significant consequences postwar. For example, Jellicoe favoured fortifying Singapore and does not seem to have trusted the Japanese. A really interesting what if would have Pakenham rising to a more influencial position as he had close relations with the IJN (I hope to write that TL separately). If Britain is short of battlecruisers after Jutland, perhaps the diplomats will be sent to make concessions to Japan on China in return for the Kongos coming to the North Sea?