AH Challenge: Colonial China

The challenge is simple: How can the Great Powers divide China into colonies, similar to what happened in Africa, not like the port cities that occurred in OTL?
 
World War 1 never happens, colonialism and Europeans' prestige still high enough they still play the Great Game and China becomes the fashionable new Africa to carve up.
 
World War 1 never happens, colonialism and Europeans' prestige still high enough they still play the Great Game and China becomes the fashionable new Africa to carve up.

I suspect not. The tide was already starting to move against colonialism, albeit not very obviously. Also for most of the last century Britain had been seeking to preserve the territorial integrity of China, since they had the most invested in trade in the region and as the only free-trade power had a lot to lose from any partition of the country. Coupled with the fact that China, even at its weakest, had a much stronger sense of identity than India, the only colonial area of similar size and population. As such even if the European/American powers agreed on a partition they might be able to force their will initially but, unless they get very rough I think it would be a losing proposition.

Steve
 
Also for most of the last century Britain had been seeking to preserve the territorial integrity of China, since they had the most invested in trade in the region and as the only free-trade power had a lot to lose from any partition of the country.

Britain had the same opposition to the carve up of Africa for much the same reason. It didn't matter much in the end. If Germany, France, Russia and maybe Japan are all set on carving out areas of influence there is little Britain can do to oppose them. Well, barring throw the RN against their combined navies. Even that won't stop Russia. Her best option becomes to ensure she secures (as in Africa) the lion's share of the spoils.
 
As such even if the European/American powers agreed on a partition they might be able to force their will initially but, unless they get very rough I think it would be a losing proposition.

Steve
Agreed, but they don't know that at the time. the European powers set up colonies in the Carbbean which paid off in the short term, but in the long term were a drain.

Perhaps a harsher peace after the Opium Wars, with Britain taking a chunk of southern China. This would show to the other Great Powers that China would be open game, and rush to get the key cities like Shanghai or Fuzhou.
 
I suspect not. The tide was already starting to move against colonialism, albeit not very obviously. Also for most of the last century Britain had been seeking to preserve the territorial integrity of China, since they had the most invested in trade in the region and as the only free-trade power had a lot to lose from any partition of the country. Coupled with the fact that China, even at its weakest, had a much stronger sense of identity than India, the only colonial area of similar size and population. As such even if the European/American powers agreed on a partition they might be able to force their will initially but, unless they get very rough I think it would be a losing proposition.

Steve
I might point out that the US was interested in a free-trade China as well, not least because they never had the power to do much otherwise.
 
My gut feeling tells me a nastier Boxer Rebellion could do the trick, but I don't honestly know enough about Chinese history to even say that's a possibility.
 
I've one - what about a later Ming collapse , coupled with Russian intrusions into Manchuria later in the 17th or early in the 18th Century ? With the Manchus preocupied with warding off Russian incursions , China is left unconquered , and hence Balkanises , ala Mughal style ( Now , there are many differences - like the fact that Chinese Balkanisations lasted no more than a few centuries.) During this period , Western Powers begin intruding and intefering with the internal affairs of the warring Chinese sucessor states.

As a result ," Oriental " or " Chinese " comapnies will be formed and run like East Indie Companies . The result - by the early 19th century , large parts of the Chinese coast have been contested ( and the napelonic wars might be butterflied away , and the French Revolution ... ) in various wars between Major European Powers like Spain , France , Britan and Russia ( in the Northeast) .

By the dawn of the 20th century , most of China , with the exception of several rump satallite states in Western Sichuan , Gansu ,Xinjiang and parts of Mongolia are under western colonial domination .

By the early 21st century , anti Colonist fanatics will be the Al quadea analouge of this ATL ( not in terms of ideology , but in actions,)
 
I might point out that the US was interested in a free-trade China as well, not least because they never had the power to do much otherwise.

Dean

True and if it gets into the 20thC then that would be a big factor. Not sure before 1900 however how much weight the US would have to throw about outside N America , how willing it would be to do it and how well it would work with Britain given the rivalry during much of the 19thC.

Steve
 
Britain had the same opposition to the carve up of Africa for much the same reason. It didn't matter much in the end. If Germany, France, Russia and maybe Japan are all set on carving out areas of influence there is little Britain can do to oppose them. Well, barring throw the RN against their combined navies. Even that won't stop Russia. Her best option becomes to ensure she secures (as in Africa) the lion's share of the spoils.

Earling

True, although other countries also had some of that view early on. However in Africa Britain's case was weakened by the fact it held substantial African territories, which expanded during the period. Also other powers had long held colonies there so it was noy as clear cut. Most of all China, even in the decay of the Manchu dynasty, was a lot bigger a meal for any conqueror. Even so Britain did manage to delay the carve-up of Africa for a while. [While that was partly morality it was also politics/economics in that while Africa was independent British merchants could trade fairly freely but once areas became colonies they were cut out].

Given how important China was as a potential market and also how important it would seem to be in power politics the most likely way that China might be colonised could be by the establishment of a British protectorate over the bulk of it after Russia possibly seizes more of Manchuria and the north. This might be seen as the least bad case for Britain, the Chinese government and possibly some other European powers who don't want to see China and its markets taken over by Russia but aren't willing to take an active role in defending it against them.

Such a situation would probably be unstable as British relative power declined and also hostility toward European domination would be directed more intensely at Britain as the clear controller of the country so probably not good for Britain in the longer run.

To a degree it might be said that this happened in that Britain established itself as the chief protector of Chinese integrity and controller of much of its resources. This worked for the Chinese government as well in that it received considerably more resources.

Steve
 
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