Some of the underlying trends from 1994 would remain, such as retirements, Southern voters moving to the Republicans, and various scandals and corruption in the House. If the Democrats push for another tax increase (after failing to provide their promised spending cuts from 1990) or a nationalized health care program, that could be enough to inspire the Contract from America. A different person in the White House won't change Newt Gingrich's desire to be Speaker.