You think Strom didn't believe he could get ABM and an increased Pentagon budget out of Ronald Reagan?* Not even as part of the traditional wrangling at the party convention?
Oh I imagine he could have…*but Nixon talked to him first, and at the time Reagan was staying out of the matter. Once Strom gave his word to Nixon that was that.
It wasn't a matter of finding the best deal for Strom, it was a matter of finding an acceptable deal. If Reagan had talked to him earlier he probably would have backed Reagan. But once he was on board with Nixon, that was that.
Additionally, post-Goldwater, Strom was worried that Reagan simply couldn't win the election. That was more or less acceptable to Southern delegates (they cared more about nominating the right man than winning, which is a key reason they'd abandon Nixon after the first ballot or if Strom wasn't the guy supporting Nixon), and somewhat worried the Northern delegates.
However Reagan would have the South plus California (and probably more) on the second ballot, which puts paid to Nixon and Rockefeller.
Anyway, what do you think about the dangers of Candidate Reagan running a militaristic presidential campaign in '68 similar to McCain '08? I think it's the elephant in the room, and it may be just what either RFK or HHH need to win.
Over at Counterfactual we discussed Viet Nam polling for a bit.
February of 1968 (post-Tet):
- 24% discontinue struggle
- 4% continue war, but cut back to key population centres only
- 10% continue war at present effort
- 25% gradually broaden and intensify our military operations
- 28% all-out crash effort, even if China or Russia get involved
- 9% no opinion
However, 56% would back a government led withdrawal.
I think Reagan could do just fine based on those numbers.
Or, rather, to phrase it in a question RE what did happen OTL: Why didn't Thurmond put out feelers to Reagan's camp about the Senator's policy agenda? Reagan was already outspoken on defence issues, I don't think it need have been done as part of a quid pro quo deal.
In the summer of 1968 Reagan was staying out of the contest, for a variety of reasons including the embarrassing homosexual that worked for him, office reorg problems, and duties of being the Governor.
Put simply—Reagan didn't talk to anyone. And when he finally did, at a fairly important Southern dinner he basically blew it off with a bad speech and wasn't very friendly. One of the few times the Great Communicator screwed up in that fashion.