AH Challenge:Best Result for Germany 1914-1945

I've always had the idea in the back of my mind that WWI and especially WWII could have been relatively one-sided. In WWII, at least, it was the Nazis and the Italians in the European theater against other, relatively predominant powers with their luck screeching downwards the longer the war goes on.

What is the best possible result that the Germans can hope for from 1914 to 1945, or rather the beginning of WWI to the end of WWII (if you want to change dates)? All PODs or butterflies must be feasible and it cannot be a Naziwank or an Alliedwank.
 
I've always had the idea in the back of my mind that WWI and especially WWII could have been relatively one-sided. In WWII, at least, it was the Nazis and the Italians in the European theater against other, relatively predominant powers with their luck screeching downwards the longer the war goes on.

What is the best possible result that the Germans can hope for from 1914 to 1945, or rather the beginning of WWI to the end of WWII (if you want to change dates)? All PODs or butterflies must be feasible and it cannot be a Naziwank or an Alliedwank.

Well, Germany can expect to become the dominant economic power in Europe. This, actually, is just a matter of not screwing up their position instead of really expanding in Europe by 1914.

So, consider something where Kaiser Bill tells Austria that he wants justice for Franz Ferdinand, but he also wants peace--so Serbia receives demands to investigate the killing and decides that dishonoring those demands would be unwise.

Bismarck had called Germany a "Satisfied Power" after 1870, and some excellent conservative play would have seen a 1945 Germany emergent as an economic Titan. The plan is simple--Germany had the power to launch a war or not, and decides to avert WW1, to calm tensions between the competing alliances in Europe to safeguard their growing economic power (which means that time and peace favors them) and eventually, to hash out some kind of rapprochement with France in the 30s.

There could be another war in Europe--getting away from the WW1 system of competing alliances would be a formidable but possible goal. Kaiser Bill simply has to understand the benefits of peace exceed those of war for his country, and its quite possible that he could simply figure that out.

As Austria Hungary starts to fall apart, it begins to lean harder on Germany for its own survival, which means that Germany starts to politically dominate central Europe. A complete AH Collapse would probably see Austria joining Germany, as was desired post WW1.

So, the best result for Germany in WW1 and WW2 is not to fight either one. And that's not ASB at all.:D
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
If WW1 could be avoided (perhpaps no assassination in Sarajevo) thiongs could turn out differently. However WW1 was almost bound to happen at some point. In 1914 all European powers just sat waiting for an excuse to go to war.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Then just have the Germans win it quickly.

Yeah, there are no quick way to win a trench war, Germany could possibly beat Russia and France with no US intervention, but the UK would be a harder nut to crack, and even if Germany would win the war, they'd be in a bad situation due to poverty and starvation (the British blockade).
 

Neroon

Banned
I think the ideal thing would have been to "split the difference" regarding the options "win war" and "avoid war" into:
Delay WW1 until the opposing coalition breaks. A falling out between either Britain and France or Britian and Russia in the years after a warless 1914 would hardly be ASB territory. Still makes a quick victory in a Trench War quite unlikely, but any war against only two of those 2 can be won with smaller casulties than Germany had any hope of in the OTL setup.
 
Have Germany crush France in 1905, and Austria-Hungary Serbia in 1909 - and the CP are dominating Europe. Britain will stay hostile, but Russia most probably will appease (they are not intend on having their colonial empire in eastern Europe disassembled), which means that Britain can stay hostile until eternity and it doesn't matter.
If Austria-Hungary falls into parts, Germany and Russia can strike the old deal: western Balkans to German control, eastern Balkans as Russian clients. Germany helps Russia to access to the straits, while Russia tolerates German railway bridges above the straits and German influence in the Ottoman Empire/Turkey.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Give Franz Ferdinand another driver in Sarajevo, and WWI is avoided that year. In a year or two we will likely see a new Balkan War* and that will push the Great War a few years out in the future, and at that point the Social Democrats rule Germany will focus on interna l reforms, Austria has a few Emperor which also focus on internal reform, which turn them away from foreign adventures and will make Britain more pro-German. If we can keep WWI from happening for decade it's likely that it avoided completely.

*will likely include Italy.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Suppose the British do not enter the war in 1914- which was a distinct possibility. The Germans will beat the French into submission by mid-1915 at the latest and go on to force the Russians to make peace. This leaves Germany as the superpower of Europe, with an expanded African empire (at the expense of the French) and an economic dominance over the Continent. Its expanded influence in the Near East will result in rivalry with the British as the oil economic becomes important.

This, IMHO, will result in a world with Germany and the British Empire as the world's major powers, the France, Russia, Japan and the United States as secondary powers. Austria-Hungary will become a puppet of Germany and Italy is likely to be a faithful German ally.
 
Yeah, there are no quick way to win a trench war, Germany could possibly beat Russia and France with no US intervention, but the UK would be a harder nut to crack, and even if Germany would win the war, they'd be in a bad situation due to poverty and starvation (the British blockade).

There was a stage very early on in the war where it was still a war of movement. Lets say Kluck ignores Bulow and takes Paris (or something a bit more expert, my knowledge is limited. Germany could demand some reasonable concessions and the war would be over by Christmas. The UK would have bearly had a chance to take part.
 
I've always wondered why Germany wanted war so badly in 1914: Germany was doing quite well and the International System, at least in Europe, was highly favorable to it, and its long-term economic and strategic prospects looked good.

It actually wouldn't have been that hard for Germany to win in 1914: a large part of the force in the West was withdrawn to face the Russians who were invading East Prussia, but by the time they arrived, the Russians had already been soundly defeated at Tannenberg. These forces might have made a difference if committed at the Marne, or if they had been able to outflank the French during the Race to the Sea.

The critical error the Germans made, however, was that they underestimated the consequences of violating Belgium's neutrality. It was this action that brought Britain into the war.
 
I've always wondered why Germany wanted war so badly in 1914: Germany was doing quite well and the International System, at least in Europe, was highly favorable to it, and its long-term economic and strategic prospects looked good.

Because the long term military prospects were not looking so good. Since 1912 the Germans viewed they had a narrow window where they could hope to be able to conduct an offensive war, that window was to close in 1916 or so. The problem is Russia had at last recovered from its pounding in the Russo-Japanese war and was expanding its military. So Germany faced enemy offensives west and east.

Michael
 
Because the long term military prospects were not looking so good. Since 1912 the Germans viewed they had a narrow window where they could hope to be able to conduct an offensive war, that window was to close in 1916 or so. The problem is Russia had at last recovered from its pounding in the Russo-Japanese war and was expanding its military. So Germany faced enemy offensives west and east.

Michael

oh right, I forgot about the Russian recovery and infrastructure improvements. Still, I think Germany could have beaten Russia by fighting a defensive war in the 1916-1920 timeframe. Of course, nobody in Europe would have believed that in 1914.
 
Preserving Germany's position by not having the World Wars is of course a distinct possibility.
Winning a World War One - equivalent is IMHO also possible if Britain stays neutral and Japan becomes a CP-ally. The enmity between Germany and France is a given due to Germany's possession of Alsace and Lorraine and France's wish to regain these territories. The enmity between Austria-Hungary and Russia is also more or less a given due the rule of Austrians and Hungarians over Slavic nations and the Czar's need for Panslavic propaganda.

I think the German-British rivalry is far less of a given. If it is to be avoided, then of course the POD must be early enough. The earliest and best POD is probably in 1884 when Bismarck acquired the first German colonies. It would be best for Germany not to acquire colonies at all, first for financial reasons - the colonies nearly all cost more money than could be gained from them - and second to avoid a rivalry with Great Britain.
Some more points where Germany could easily avoid a conflict with Britain:
- Not errecting tariff barriers against British goods (Britain did not retaliate with similar barriers in OTL and was still wealthier than Germany. Since this can help to reduce costs of living and production costs, this does not need to be a sacrifice at all.)
- Kaiser Wilhelm II refrains from sending the Kruger telegram or making the remarks that led to the Daily Telegraph affair.
- Germany does not start to build a fleet that is as big as in OTL. Perhaps the Haldane mission of 1912 is the latest possible POD in this respect.
- Perhaps most important, Germany does not violate Belgian neutrality in 1914. This probably demands a POD well before August 1914, where the political and the military leadership of the Reich coordinate their actions better and an alternative to the Schlieffen plan is developed.
It would probably not be necessary to avoid all the points of conflict mentioned. IIRC, Churchill has written that avoiding only the violation of Belgian neutrality would have prevented Britain from entering the war. Of course it would take a very different sort of leadership at the top to avoid enough conflict points.

If Germany had had no colonies, or at least no East Asian or Pacific colonies, Japan could have reaped no possible benefits from entering the war on the Entente's side. Given the fact that Germany and Japan are quite distant countries but had at the same time the same powerful neighbor - Russia - a Japanese alliance with the Central Powers seems to be possible.
A few PODs to make this possible that come to mind:
- Germany had not been one of the powers (along with Russia and France) that gave Japan the so-called "friendly advice" not to annex the Liaodong peninsula from China in 1895.
- Germany gives Japan financial support during the Russo-Japanese war.
- Germany does not supply the Russian Baltic squadron with coal on its way to East Asia.
The French navy is both smaller than the British and has bases that are less well-situated to blockade the Central Powers. Britain's massive financial power is not brought to bear to prevent neutral countries from trading with the CPs. A weaker Entente and stronger Central Powers might have made countries who were "sitting on a fence" such as Italy and Romania join the Central Powers instead of the Entente as in OTL. I have doubts whether the war would really be over as soon as 1915, but with the arraignment of powers just described, a CP victory seems more likely than the opposite result.
In the East, a partition of the Russian Empire, just as in OTL's Brest-Litovsk, seems to be the logical outcome of a CP victory. To make the various new states that arise on the territory of the former Russian Empire viable, it is probably best to give them genuine independence and have a customs union or free trade zone as the only formal tie to Germany and Austria-Hungary. The Polish nation is of course a big problem for the CPs even in the case of a CP victory. If a Polish state is resurrected only on formerly Russian territory, this state will have large Irredentas in territory that belongs still to Germany or A-H. Perhaps Germany can give Poland the Poznan province in addition to the formerly Russian areas and compensate for this in the West, e. g. by annexing the ore basin of Longwy-Briey and Luxembourg?? Serbia will be "punished" by giving the Kosovo area to Albania.
Despite a CP-victory the various nations in the Austrian-Hungarian Empire will continue to struggle for independence. Of course a peaceful dissolution of this Empire would be the best for everyone concerned. It is quite likely that the German-speaking parts of the former Austria-Hungary would want to join Germany, just as they did in OTL after World War One.
 
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I've always wondered why Germany wanted war so badly in 1914: Germany was doing quite well and the International System, at least in Europe, was highly favorable to it, and its long-term economic and strategic prospects looked good.

While the long-term prospects might be favorable to Germany, they were even more favorable to Russia.

Indeed, I would bet that by 1970, sans WW1, the world belongs to America, Russia, and (maybe) Japan.
 
This, IMHO, will result in a world with Germany and the British Empire as the world's major powers, the France, Russia, Japan and the United States as secondary powers. Austria-Hungary will become a puppet of Germany and Italy is likely to be a faithful German ally.


The US, by 1914, has the world's largest economy, and does not have a heavy industrial sector dominated by cartels and trusts. It also has a much more active financial sector, and one of the world's best-educated populations.

It will not be second to Germany or Britain.
 

Typo

Banned
But they might remain isolationist without the WWs and been perceived as a secondary power.
 
The best result for Germany would be to be a wealthy liberal democracy containing virtually all the Germans in Europe who live in a single mass, (ie Germany and Austria but not the Volga or Balakns Germans) that is the centre of it's own large economic bloc and military alliance system.

The way to go about this is to win WW1 by 1917, since a short war is impossible, and control the breakup of the AHE. If nothing else the incorporation of Austria into the German state and the conquered and former AHE territories into a customs union will see Germany far wealthier and secure than at any time IOTL.
 
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