AH Challenge: Bavaria, not Prussia, unites Germany into the German Empire

Valdemar II

Banned
Send Bismarck to the Bavarian court.

That wouldn't do it, it's no accident that Prussia unified Germany, from 1815 it had 3-4 times the population of Bavaria and it was only growing through the 19th century, in the 2nd Reich Prussia had 70% of the population.

We need a POD at the very least before Vienna, and a pre-French revolution would be best. Bavaria did have potential like the later Prussia it had possesion in both the east and west, and it own some of the areas along the Rhine which would later become the centre of German industrialisation. Bavarias problem was that it need to both win over Prussia and Austria. The best case would be that they ended up in a conflict there they took each other out or one of them collapsed.
 
OK, this is just some seat-of-my-pants stuff, but there's a couple big geopolitical and economic problems Bavaria has to get over if it wants to be the unifier of Germany. The first is agriculture. Bavaria is, quite famously, hilly and mountainous, and so has never been able to support huge populations. Austria, though also largely rugged, had the super-fertile Danubian plain to support its armies. Prussia had a similar problem for much of its history, insofar as much of its land consisted of very poor, cold, dry, sandy soil. It later turned out that this extremely well-drained and cold soil was perfect for growing potatoes, which can get by fine on poor soils but which have problems with fungal rots (not just potato blight, either; potatoes are very susceptible to fungal infections) if the soil gets too wet and too hot for too long. And so you had the 18th and 19th century Prussian potato population explosion, which allowed it to become the militarized kingdom we all know and love.

Secondly, there's the problem of expansion. Frankly, Prussia and Austria both got a lot of their power by expanding eastward, before trying their hand at uniting the 10,000,000 densely populated, extremely paranoid German principalities. Without Silesia, East Prussia, and its sundry Polish provinces, Prussia would have had a very hard time amassing sufficient power to be able to challenge Austria. Similarly, without Bohemia-Moravia, Hungary, Galicia, etc., Austria would have had a very hard time amassing sufficient power to be the sort of nation you needed to challenge in the first place. Bavaria doesn't really have that much room for expansion. I mean, look around them - to the West is France, which during the times Bohemia is going to need to be expanding was the preeminent European land power. To the South is Switzerland and Italy, and we saw how well that turned out for the Medieval Holy Roman Emperors. To the East is Austria, and if Bavaria takes them on early enough to count as 'expansion' rather than 'unification' then we're gonna be talking about a very, very weird (though interesting!) European history. And to the North are the aforementioned 10,000,000 densely populated, extremely paranoid German principalities; for the results of trying to conquer them, just look at the 30 years war.

So looking at things, I guess what you want is for Bavaria to do some tricky dynastic maneuverings and get control of Austria at some point in time, like Tobit suggested with his War of the Austrian Succession pointer. And you really want to do it as early in history as possible, as, IIRC, from the 30-years war on, almost all the major long-term economic and population trends in Germany were marginalizing Bavaria*. I mean, even in the best of cases, a lot of the real heavy lifting will be done by Bavaria's, er, non-Bavarian provinces; but the longer you wait, the more likely the scenario becomes an Austrian-led German unification but with a non-Hapsburg dynasty in charge of Austria.

So, yeah.

*Shit, I'm just making this stuff up based on vague memories of how big a role Bavaria played in wars of the eras. If I'm wrong, please, please call me on it, will you?
 
In order for Bavaria to unify Germany you need a PoD as early as the 14th century. Back then the Wittelsbacher controlled Bavaria, Brandenburg, Tirol, parts of Holland and if memory serves me right Friesland.
If they can hold on to those areas, Prussia will not be a rival, as it isn't even in Germany and without Brandenburg - now still in bavarian hands - it will propbably become part of Poland until it returns as part of Bavaria when Austria, Russia and (now) Bavaria slice Poland in pieces at the end of the 18th century

If, in the 15th century, the Fugger put their money behind the rulers of Bavaria instead of the Hapsburgs they will become rulers of the HRE and stay on the throne until Napoleon. And why shouldn't they, they are Bavarians after all ;).

Now the 30 year war is a problem as Holland, Brandenburg and Friesland are protestant.
Let the war end in a similar fashion, and Bavaria loses their parts of Holland which gains independence, maybe Friesland as well, but it must keep Brandenburg - perhaps they do what the Hapsburgs did in Bohemia and make the country catholic again. Tirol is not in danger anyway.

Let the War of the Austrian succession end just like in OTL with a victory. I don't think that Bavaria would be interested in Silesia - to far away.
They would however love the get their hands on Bohemia.

Napoleon is tricky. Bavaria would not be supporting him this time around, will be beaten and most likely split. Brandenburg-Bohemia will get one of Napoleons brothers as King. Bavaria-Tirol stays as it is.
With the end of Napoleon the time for Bavaria has come.
It gets everything back, plus half of Saxony and possible all or at least parts of Wuerttemberg - punishment for supporting Napoleon - dependig on how good they get on with Metternich.

In 1848 when the crown of Germany is offered in Frankfurt the King of Bavaria needs only to say yes - unlike his Prussian counterpart in OTL who felt that it was beneath him.
There is a different mentality between South and North Germans and I dare say a South German would have taken it.
The aggressive OTL alternative is also an option, but seems less likely to me.

There are some interesting sidelines.

Austria without Tirol, might not get parts of Italy or lose them pretty fast and would perhaps look even more to the East for land.
The Hapsburgs would not be leaders of the HRE, there would be no tradition that they would have a need to honour.
This could mean that their interest in "Germany" is low enough to let the Bavarians have it. They are mentaly and as a society similar to the Bavarians, unlike the Prussians who are everything the Austrians are not, not even catholics for Christ sake :D

Both major German powers are catholic. Perhaps a third protesant - Hannover ? - could immerge with support from outside - Holland, England - but this is hard to tell. With Brandenburg being catholic the protestants might emigrate en masse to America, leaving the north of Germany depopulated. Which means that a Bavarian Germany does not have the manpower a Prussian Germany had.
But it also means that there are a lot more Germans in the USA...

With Bohemia in Bavarian hands they would be part of Germany.
 

Redbeard

Banned
I think we can do with a PoD as late as October 1813. On 30-31st of October 1813 a Bavarian led Austro-Bavarian Army at Hanau near Frankfurt am Main tried to block Napoleons retreat from Leipzig, but was brushed aside.

The Austro-Bavarians had a bad hair day, they thought they only had stragglers in front of them, and instead they met Napoleon himself and the Old Guard, and as if that wasn't enough they had left their ammo train at Würzburg and ran out of ammo at the climax of the battle!.

With a better hand on logistics and with better intelligence on the French the Austro-Bavarian army would however have been strong enough (50.000 and with plenty of artillery) to stop the relatively disorganised French forces retreating. Dropping the siege at Würzburg a little earlier and taking up a blocking position at Schlüchtern a few miles to the east of Hanau would mean that the French would have to go up a narrow pass against more than 100 guns backed by 50.000 men. But even at the OTL location at Hanau I'll claim that Napoleon could be defeated - I've done it many times in wargames :D

Next have Napoleon fall to a stray cannon ball or even better be captured, and the Bavarians under their political ambitious leader Wrede will be the big heroes of the Liberation Wars, and Prussia will have a much harder time snatching all the territories she got in OTL.

By 1813 Bavaria clearly had ambitions about dominating southern Germany, and we would probably need somekind of clash between Bavaria and Prussia later in the 19th century (won by Bavaria) to have Bavaria feel ambitions to lead all of Germany. Anyway French revanchism and a Napoleon III would probably mean that the strongest of the German states is expected to take the lead, and if that is Bavaria you probably have your Germany unified under Baviarian leadership, but I doubt it will be as centralised as the Prussian version.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 

Typo

Banned
Bavaria gets the Rhineland at Vienna, Prussia regains it's part of the Polish partition
 
Bavaria gets the Rhineland at Vienna, Prussia regains it's part of the Polish partition

Best way is if Napoleon is more generous to Bavaria in the early 1800s, giving it the Kingdom of Westphalia and finding somewhere else for Brother Jerome. Maybe he thinks that a Germany divided three ways is easier to control. Come 1813, the Bavarians show their gratitude by defecting to the Allies at the first opportunity, so at Vienna they are on the winning side and can't be dispossessed, but keep their ill-gotten gains or an equivalent. Austria will insist on getting Tyrol etc back, so Bavaria gets the Rhineland as compensation, and maybe part of Belgium as well.

I'm not so sure about the Polish partition. Trouble is, if 1812/13 has gone anything like OTL (which it must for Napoleon to be defeated) then Tsar Alexander is in possession of the Duchy of Warsaw. He seems to have been determined to keep it, and can't be dislodged except by war. My guess is that Prussia has to look elsewhere, maybe getting all of Saxony instead of half. Tough on the King of Saxony, but it's his own fault for not abandoning Napoleon sooner.:D

This leaves post-1815 Germany essentially run by a triumvirate of Habsburgs, Hohenzollerns and Wittelsbachs. No one else really counts. Things jog along until 1848, and then the fun really starts. Ludwig 1 probably abdicates as OTL, and is succeeded by his more intelligent son, Maximilian II. The following year, after the King of Prussia refuses the Imperial Crown, it is offered to Maximilian. He is inclined to accept, but in the face of an ultimatum from Russia and Prussia (Austria concurs but is still too distracted to do much) he backs down, while making it plain that he does so under duress - a bit like Charles Albert in Italy. Unlike CA, he firmly refuses to abdicate, and the powers don't push it. In the 1850s, he is ostentatiously more liberal then the other two German powers, and sends a contingent to the Crimea, along with Sardinia. This technically breaks the law of the German Confederation, but nobody dares make an issue of it. Max has too many allies at the moment.

His big chance comes in 1859. When Austria and France go to war, Max sends an ultimatum to Vienna, calling for drastic reforms of the Confederation, including an elected German Parliament. Franz Josef refuses, whereupon Bavaria denounces the Confederation and declares war. Austria is crushingly defeated - much more so than in OTL's 1859 - and with Franco-Bavarian forces at the gates of Vienna, Franz Josef abdicates. Austria (now ruled by Archduke Max as Regent for an infant Emperor Rudolf) makes a disastrous peace/ losing Venice as well as Lombardy. Bavaria puts in a claim to Tyrol and several other Austrian provinces, but waives it in return for Austria's formal renunciation of the German Confederation.

Meanwhile, the other powers have been dithering. Wilhelm, Prince Regent of Prussia, orders a general mobilisation, but this reveals so many problems and inefficiencies that he is unwilling to fight. The Tsar, whose Empire is still recovering from defeat in the Crimea, feels the same way. In the end, they look on while a new "West German Confederation" is formed, led by Bavaria, and with a directly elected Reichstag. Prussia is invited to join, but refuses.

An uneasy peace follows, but in 1863, The Schleswig-Holstein question erupts. Max II recognises the Duke of Augustenburg as Duke of S/H, and war breaks out between the WGC and Denmark. At this point, Prussia makes a fatal error, entering the war on the Danish side. The Prussians confidently expect Austria to join them against the Bavarian upstarts, but Archduke Max surprises everyone by allying with his namesake. He hasn't forgotten the latter's chivalrous behaviour in 1859, nor the way Prussia had, as he saw it, left Austria in the lurch. He joins the "German" side, and raises further eyebrows by giving command to the capable Arthur Gorgei, a Hungarian rebel whom he had amnestied four years ago. The combined Austro-German forces meet the Prussians near Erfurt and decisively defeat them. Their Danish allies, who arrived too late for the battle, hastily fall back and take up a defensive position in Schleswig.

Wilhelm I abdicates, and the new King, Friedrich III, sues for peace. The terms initially offered are severe, including restoration of the old Saxon Kingdom, but are quickly moderated when King Friedrich, who always favoured German unity, though wishing it to be under Prussia, indicates a willingness to join the Confederation. In the end, Prussia loses only Upper Silesia to Austria, and pays the Confederation's war expenses, but is otherwise left intact despite the protests of the old Saxon Royal House. Denmark, now isolated, is pushed back into Jutland annd forced to surrender S/H. A few weeks later, Maximilan II is proclaimed Emperoro of the Second German Reich.
 
Kind of a late POD, but shortly after the Napoleonic wars, in 1817 the reigning dynasty of Baden found it's self nearly extinct in the legitimate line; the only two remaining men was the Grand Duke, and his childless uncle, Ludwig. A series of agreements provided that the King of Bavaria would inherit Baden if the line went extinct, as he was married to the Grand Duke's sister. Bavaria secured an agreement in Austria in 1816 to secure their rights to Baden; The Grand Duke of Baden chose to legitimize a morganatic branch of the dynasty and put them into the succession. You could see Baden become part of Bavaria, but a union of the two countries still wouldn't stand up to Prussia, unless there were some other butterflies...
 

Susano

Banned
Bavaria gets the Rhineland at Vienna, Prussia regains it's part of the Polish partition

That isnt enough. Prussia IOTL extremly lucked out and hit the cash point when it became apparent they had all three major German coal reservoirs, but ITTL theyd still hold one (Upper Silesia), and besides this simply wasnt what Prussias Great Power status was based on. Prussia had been a Great Power since the 7 Years War, if thrown back during the Napoleonic time. It had a political and military tradition upon which its great powe rstatus rested - Bavaria simply doesnt.

So if Bavaria gains the Rhineland, including Saar and Ruhr, then most likely we will see a decaying Prussia and a rising Bavaria, ending up with neither being a great power, but both being strong middle powers. In the end, that would only help Austria...
 
Bavaria gets the Rhineland at Vienna, Prussia regains it's part of the Polish partition

And why would they give them that?
When Prussia did not get all of Saxony - there was talk of war over this - then why would the Prussians let the Bavarians have the Rhineland?
If you give Bavaria the Rhineland then you have to give Prussia all of Saxony.
Plus why would the Bavarians want the Rheinland as this means trouble with the French who at the time still believed in the Rhine border.
Also keep in mind that because Prussia had the Rhineland it had to grow West, INTO Germany.
Take the Rhineland away from Prussia and give the Saxony and parts of Poland instead and they lose interest in Germany as they industrialise in the other direction. (You might end up with three German states; Austria, Prussia and West-Germany)

Yourworstnightmare and my option of a unified Wittelsbacher Kingdom has the underestimated benefit that Prussia does not exist at all, as it was not part of the HRE und never will, as Brandenburg remains with Bavaria and there is no inheritance in 1618.
This leaves Prussia a Duchy in the Kingdom of Poland and out of German history books ;)
 

Valdemar II

Banned
And why would they give them that?
When Prussia did not get all of Saxony - there was talk of war over this - then why would the Prussians let the Bavarians have the Rhineland?
If you give Bavaria the Rhineland then you have to give Prussia all of Saxony.
Plus why would the Bavarians want the Rheinland as this means trouble with the French who at the time still believed in the Rhine border.
Also keep in mind that because Prussia had the Rhineland it had to grow West, INTO Germany.
Take the Rhineland away from Prussia and give the Saxony and parts of Poland instead and they lose interest in Germany as they industrialise in the other direction. (You might end up with three German states; Austria, Prussia and West-Germany)
I West Germany (which would likely include Thuringia and maybe even Belgium) would likely be named Germany to, It's not like OTL Germany are called North Germany even through it lacks South East Germany.
 

Typo

Banned
And why would they give them that?
When Prussia did not get all of Saxony - there was talk of war over this - then why would the Prussians let the Bavarians have the Rhineland?
If you give Bavaria the Rhineland then you have to give Prussia all of Saxony.
Plus why would the Bavarians want the Rheinland as this means trouble with the French who at the time still believed in the Rhine border.
Also keep in mind that because Prussia had the Rhineland it had to grow West, INTO Germany.
Take the Rhineland away from Prussia and give the Saxony and parts of Poland instead and they lose interest in Germany as they industrialise in the other direction. (You might end up with three German states; Austria, Prussia and West-Germany)

Yourworstnightmare and my option of a unified Wittelsbacher Kingdom has the underestimated benefit that Prussia does not exist at all, as it was not part of the HRE und never will, as Brandenburg remains with Bavaria and there is no inheritance in 1618.
This leaves Prussia a Duchy in the Kingdom of Poland and out of German history books ;)
Prussia wanted Saxony/Rhineland as compensation for losing the Polish partition. So it's not so much a question of Prussia letting Bavaria having Rhineland as it is Russia letting Prussia getting its territory back.

French opinion on the Rhine border is pretty irrelevant since they can't force the issue anymore
 
When Prussia did not get all of Saxony - there was talk of war over this - then why would the Prussians let the Bavarians have the Rhineland?

I originated that idea. I was presupposing a situation where most of OTL's "KIngdom of Westphalia" became Bavarian instead. That makes it a choice between Bavaria and the Netherlands as the Rhineland's new ruler, and Bavaria is by far the likelier since it will need to be compensated for losing Tyrol etc back to Austria, and probably some bits of Westphalia back to Hanover.
 

Susano

Banned
And why would they give them that?
Historical claims: Ownership of Jülich and Berg, plus claims to the rest of the Clevian inheritance. Of course, Bavaria was amply compensated for that (way overcompensated in fact) with Franconia, but the link is there. It would however require quite a strange Congress of Vienna, thats true.

Mikestone8: I think the restauration of Hesse-Kassel and Brusnwick is inevitable, and between them and Hannover theres nothing of the misnamed Westphalia left. However, the napoleonic Uber-Berg, thats another story and is actually at the Rhine :p
 
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