AH Challenge: America gets curbstomped

Realistically you'd need a limited but humiliating conflict ala Russo-Japanese War to fufil this challenge.

Say the R-JW never happens (or is delayed for a while), the Tsar's not a total dunce, whatever.

Japan looks into the East Indies/Pacific to expand in the early 1900s. The American-Philippines War is still raging and although the guerillas aren't getting to far its an unpopular conflict and dragging on. Japan decides it wants the Philippines for itself (they might be happy to accepts a client state which would certainly look good coming from an Asian power against the apparently backstabbing westerners), stars funding and arming partisans.

A naval build-up begins in Japan, which people assume is aimed at Russia. The USA's foreign policy has turned back to Latin America.

Finally in 1906-1907, a full scale Japanese invasion begins on the Philippines. The small naval squadron and relatively poorly armed American colonial garrison is no match for the IJN and IJA, aided by a large scale uprising in the name of Philippine freedom. At this point the US Army still has its one-shot Jorgensen rifles and gatling guns while the IJA has mausers and maxim guns. An island hopping campaign through the former Spanish islands is relatively easy going.

Finally the US Pacific Fleet steams out of San Francisco towards Hawaii, with word of an invasion of the islands rampant. Using the Midway atoll as ad-hoc supply base the Japanese throw everything into decisive naval engagement. Let's say they get lucky, the yanks are confident (if they can beat Spaniards a few Nips is nothing right?), remember outside of China the Japanese haven't shown their military ability yet, so the weathers on their side, they get the jump on the US fleet, which is pretty easy to spot in its blazing white and gold colours and cripple it (though it still be no cakewalk like in the R-JW).

With no Panama Canal and a confident US expecting the Pacific Fleet to be more than capable, there's a realisation no decent naval reinforcements can arrive for a month or two. The Japanese take the Hawaiian islands in a bloody assault which instills the image of the fearless banzai horde in American eyes.

Japanese forces begin to land in the Aleutian islands, which shocks and enfuriates many but there is little than can be done as the Japanese dominate the Pacific.

American plans call for a large shipbuilding campaign before bring the fight with overwhelming odds, however the fall of Anchorage, Alaska is a humiliation, while attempts to send reinforcements are dangerous as superior Japanese naval strength now has basis in Alaska. Canada, under major pressure from a Britain trying to court Japan as an ally, refuses any use of its territory to aide America's war effort.

Finally with public outrage building, but the Navy refusing to send the entire Atlantic fleet halway round the world, a large squadron is sent before new ships can rebuild USN numbers. As the squadron crawls up the South American coast, word easily spread to the Japanese and they pull off another bloody 'Trafalgar', almost bordering on pyrrchic.

Word leaks that Japan will settle for a 'free' Philippines (by now they're terrified of renewed American strength and are trying to appear louche about the whole affair), and Prime Minister Banner-Campbell in London is happy to settle the issue.

With the mighty American Empire of Liberty so lauded over for the past decade reduced for all intents and purposes once more to the Californian coast, such an idea gains popularity while Roosevelt, although a stirring war leader can't ignore the string of defeats, not to mention Democratic and even Republican critics of his lack of preparedness in the Pacific as well as a feeling he is using his last year in office to push his will over those of growing anti war activists.

After an attempt to move several warships overland through the Panama Canal Zone (seems so ballsy and strange Teddy would do it) proves a costly failure, Roosevelt is disgaced and Congress votes to accept peace talks.

----------------------------

Thats all i can think of, and even thats reliant on a lot of luck and my total ignorance of pre-WWI naval size, strength and ranges :rolleyes:
 

Baskilisk

Banned
Stevep,



[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In 1914-1915 an Anglo-German alliance would have definite Naval dominance over the USA. If you add Japan (Guam, The Philippines, Hawaii?) to the mix things looks very bad for the USA on the seas. If Teddy Roosevelt were elected a more jingoistic US foreign policy might lead to a clash. Fashoda going hot in 1898 could account for the UK tilting towards Germany.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The US peacetime army is not that large in 1914. The UK could hold Ontario and Quebec until German reinforcements arrive. France and Russia could likely view this as an optimum time to move against Germany and Austria-Hungary. Under British pressure Belgium is likely to acquiesce to German requests for military access. The Von Schlieffen might well achieve it's 45 day objective.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Bosemacher[/FONT]
Exactly. In fact, i'm pretty sure the American Army was the smallest of all the allies when it started to mobilize. The European armies simply have a time advantage in that they have standing armies. A few, quick territorial gains in key places with maritime support could very well end up in an attritious war in favor of the German/British.


They, or at least their original nobilitiness that we know off, AFAIK. came from Habsburg (thus the name). Currently situated in Switzerland.

So I was right....

Marcus

I never said it would be easy to get such a conflict but might be possible. With a different Germany an Anglo-German bloc is not impossible. Getting that involved in a war with the US other than something like the Venezuela crisis, which leaves France and Russia in the allies rear, is more difficult.

Venezuela crisis is too soon, for sure. Anglo-German cooperation is definately plausible, yes, but not like that.

The USN is a lot smaller before ~1910-1915 but it would still be a serious threat to the defence of British interests in the western hemisphere, let along possible amphibious assaults against the US coast, simply because it has home advantage. Think trhe RN would be strong enough for much of this period provided no major threat elsewhere but a lot would depend on the relative leadership, plans and organisation and of course luck and whoever won in the end I could see a lot of iron on the bottom of the ocean.
A lot of this depends on if a Central American canal is built and who controls it. Obviously it would be an early war goal for Britian, and without it the USA is out of luck for defending the west coast; under no cercumstances is the navy going to free up considerable defenses in the developed east to save the wild west. The USN may have significantly increased in this time frame, but there is no possible power that could rival the RN, and it has absolutely no distractions (no Kaiser's invasion fleet) to keep it from throwing it's full weight along the eastern seaboard. The USN may give the British a major headache at first, but it's not going to take long for Britian to be a juggernaut on America's shores, especially with the German fleet at their fingertips.
 
Stevep,

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In 1914-1915 an Anglo-German alliance would have definite Naval dominance over the USA. If you add Japan (Guam, The Philippines, Hawaii?) to the mix things looks very bad for the USA on the seas. If Teddy Roosevelt were elected a more jingoistic US foreign policy might lead to a clash. Fashoda going hot in 1898 could account for the UK tilting towards Germany.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The US peacetime army is not that large in 1914. The UK could hold Ontario and Quebec until German reinforcements arrive. France and Russia could likely view this as an optimum time to move against Germany and Austria-Hungary. Under British pressure Belgium is likely to acquiesce to German requests for military access. The Von Schlieffen might well achieve it's 45 day objective.[/FONT]


[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Bosemacher
[/FONT]

Bosemacher

That's a possibility. Do it the other way around with a clash with the US 1st and then the Franco-Russian alliance step in but France gets curb-stomped 1st and Russia isolated. Under those circumstances I could see Italy definitely staying at least neutral and the Ottomans joining the allies. As you say the US army is pretty feeble early on and that would give time to defeat France and restrict Russia before British forces reinforce Canada, supported later by the Japanese and Germans. Would still be a long and tough war and likely to see some agreement made early on as in neither side's interests but if an issue or two makes both sides stubborn it could be a real pig. Given their greater resource base, especially in experienced manpower, I would say the allies would win in the end but could be fairly pyrrhic

Steve

[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
 
Exactly. In fact, i'm pretty sure the American Army was the smallest of all the allies when it started to mobilize. The European armies simply have a time advantage in that they have standing armies. A few, quick territorial gains in key places with maritime support could very well end up in an attritious war in favor of the German/British.

Quite possibly, provided they were relatively free of attack in Europe. That could be a big IF, which is why I was thinking of the conflict coming on the tail end of a quick European war. Plus that would mean that the allies are also moblised and have gained some useful experience of modern high intensity warfare.


Venezuela crisis is too soon, for sure. Anglo-German cooperation is definately plausible, yes, but not like that.

If the US got on a very high horse about its Monroe Doctrine and angered Britain enough I think Germany was prepared to fight on the issue so it could spin off from that. You might even see relative quiet in Europe this was as well. [Russia had only recently started linking up with France and France might either support operations to secure European debts, including its own or fancy Germany and Britain being tied up in a potentially long and expensive war]. Think this latter unlikely however.


A lot of this depends on if a Central American canal is built and who controls it. Obviously it would be an early war goal for Britian, and without it the USA is out of luck for defending the west coast; under no cercumstances is the navy going to free up considerable defenses in the developed east to save the wild west. The USN may have significantly increased in this time frame, but there is no possible power that could rival the RN, and it has absolutely no distractions (no Kaiser's invasion fleet) to keep it from throwing it's full weight along the eastern seaboard. The USN may give the British a major headache at first, but it's not going to take long for Britian to be a juggernaut on America's shores, especially with the German fleet at their fingertips.

That would be a big issue as without a canal its virtually impossible to defend the Pacific coast by sea. Think they would rely on railways to enable movement of forces that way if attacked. More likely however, even if Japan was also involved it would be a case of picking off US Pacific possessions rather than the mainland itself. Coupled with defending the Canadian heartland and as you suggest seeking to occupy part of the NE heartland and pounding US counter attacks until some peace is agreed.

Steve
 
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