Realistically you'd need a limited but humiliating conflict ala Russo-Japanese War to fufil this challenge.
Say the R-JW never happens (or is delayed for a while), the Tsar's not a total dunce, whatever.
Japan looks into the East Indies/Pacific to expand in the early 1900s. The American-Philippines War is still raging and although the guerillas aren't getting to far its an unpopular conflict and dragging on. Japan decides it wants the Philippines for itself (they might be happy to accepts a client state which would certainly look good coming from an Asian power against the apparently backstabbing westerners), stars funding and arming partisans.
A naval build-up begins in Japan, which people assume is aimed at Russia. The USA's foreign policy has turned back to Latin America.
Finally in 1906-1907, a full scale Japanese invasion begins on the Philippines. The small naval squadron and relatively poorly armed American colonial garrison is no match for the IJN and IJA, aided by a large scale uprising in the name of Philippine freedom. At this point the US Army still has its one-shot Jorgensen rifles and gatling guns while the IJA has mausers and maxim guns. An island hopping campaign through the former Spanish islands is relatively easy going.
Finally the US Pacific Fleet steams out of San Francisco towards Hawaii, with word of an invasion of the islands rampant. Using the Midway atoll as ad-hoc supply base the Japanese throw everything into decisive naval engagement. Let's say they get lucky, the yanks are confident (if they can beat Spaniards a few Nips is nothing right?), remember outside of China the Japanese haven't shown their military ability yet, so the weathers on their side, they get the jump on the US fleet, which is pretty easy to spot in its blazing white and gold colours and cripple it (though it still be no cakewalk like in the R-JW).
With no Panama Canal and a confident US expecting the Pacific Fleet to be more than capable, there's a realisation no decent naval reinforcements can arrive for a month or two. The Japanese take the Hawaiian islands in a bloody assault which instills the image of the fearless banzai horde in American eyes.
Japanese forces begin to land in the Aleutian islands, which shocks and enfuriates many but there is little than can be done as the Japanese dominate the Pacific.
American plans call for a large shipbuilding campaign before bring the fight with overwhelming odds, however the fall of Anchorage, Alaska is a humiliation, while attempts to send reinforcements are dangerous as superior Japanese naval strength now has basis in Alaska. Canada, under major pressure from a Britain trying to court Japan as an ally, refuses any use of its territory to aide America's war effort.
Finally with public outrage building, but the Navy refusing to send the entire Atlantic fleet halway round the world, a large squadron is sent before new ships can rebuild USN numbers. As the squadron crawls up the South American coast, word easily spread to the Japanese and they pull off another bloody 'Trafalgar', almost bordering on pyrrchic.
Word leaks that Japan will settle for a 'free' Philippines (by now they're terrified of renewed American strength and are trying to appear louche about the whole affair), and Prime Minister Banner-Campbell in London is happy to settle the issue.
With the mighty American Empire of Liberty so lauded over for the past decade reduced for all intents and purposes once more to the Californian coast, such an idea gains popularity while Roosevelt, although a stirring war leader can't ignore the string of defeats, not to mention Democratic and even Republican critics of his lack of preparedness in the Pacific as well as a feeling he is using his last year in office to push his will over those of growing anti war activists.
After an attempt to move several warships overland through the Panama Canal Zone (seems so ballsy and strange Teddy would do it) proves a costly failure, Roosevelt is disgaced and Congress votes to accept peace talks.
----------------------------
Thats all i can think of, and even thats reliant on a lot of luck and my total ignorance of pre-WWI naval size, strength and ranges
Say the R-JW never happens (or is delayed for a while), the Tsar's not a total dunce, whatever.
Japan looks into the East Indies/Pacific to expand in the early 1900s. The American-Philippines War is still raging and although the guerillas aren't getting to far its an unpopular conflict and dragging on. Japan decides it wants the Philippines for itself (they might be happy to accepts a client state which would certainly look good coming from an Asian power against the apparently backstabbing westerners), stars funding and arming partisans.
A naval build-up begins in Japan, which people assume is aimed at Russia. The USA's foreign policy has turned back to Latin America.
Finally in 1906-1907, a full scale Japanese invasion begins on the Philippines. The small naval squadron and relatively poorly armed American colonial garrison is no match for the IJN and IJA, aided by a large scale uprising in the name of Philippine freedom. At this point the US Army still has its one-shot Jorgensen rifles and gatling guns while the IJA has mausers and maxim guns. An island hopping campaign through the former Spanish islands is relatively easy going.
Finally the US Pacific Fleet steams out of San Francisco towards Hawaii, with word of an invasion of the islands rampant. Using the Midway atoll as ad-hoc supply base the Japanese throw everything into decisive naval engagement. Let's say they get lucky, the yanks are confident (if they can beat Spaniards a few Nips is nothing right?), remember outside of China the Japanese haven't shown their military ability yet, so the weathers on their side, they get the jump on the US fleet, which is pretty easy to spot in its blazing white and gold colours and cripple it (though it still be no cakewalk like in the R-JW).
With no Panama Canal and a confident US expecting the Pacific Fleet to be more than capable, there's a realisation no decent naval reinforcements can arrive for a month or two. The Japanese take the Hawaiian islands in a bloody assault which instills the image of the fearless banzai horde in American eyes.
Japanese forces begin to land in the Aleutian islands, which shocks and enfuriates many but there is little than can be done as the Japanese dominate the Pacific.
American plans call for a large shipbuilding campaign before bring the fight with overwhelming odds, however the fall of Anchorage, Alaska is a humiliation, while attempts to send reinforcements are dangerous as superior Japanese naval strength now has basis in Alaska. Canada, under major pressure from a Britain trying to court Japan as an ally, refuses any use of its territory to aide America's war effort.
Finally with public outrage building, but the Navy refusing to send the entire Atlantic fleet halway round the world, a large squadron is sent before new ships can rebuild USN numbers. As the squadron crawls up the South American coast, word easily spread to the Japanese and they pull off another bloody 'Trafalgar', almost bordering on pyrrchic.
Word leaks that Japan will settle for a 'free' Philippines (by now they're terrified of renewed American strength and are trying to appear louche about the whole affair), and Prime Minister Banner-Campbell in London is happy to settle the issue.
With the mighty American Empire of Liberty so lauded over for the past decade reduced for all intents and purposes once more to the Californian coast, such an idea gains popularity while Roosevelt, although a stirring war leader can't ignore the string of defeats, not to mention Democratic and even Republican critics of his lack of preparedness in the Pacific as well as a feeling he is using his last year in office to push his will over those of growing anti war activists.
After an attempt to move several warships overland through the Panama Canal Zone (seems so ballsy and strange Teddy would do it) proves a costly failure, Roosevelt is disgaced and Congress votes to accept peace talks.
----------------------------
Thats all i can think of, and even thats reliant on a lot of luck and my total ignorance of pre-WWI naval size, strength and ranges