This thread has wandered
WAYYY off-subject.
And to bring it back- my two cents is that the best chance for an ACTUAL Civil War would have been some time in the year 1800 due to it being the first transition of power in the history of the US.
Maybe Adams decides not to hand over the reigns so easily (unlikely, I don't think it was in Adams' character), maybe Adams wins (plausible- if the state of Maryland's assembly had stayed Federalist in the election just before 1800, they planned on going to the state legislature elects the presidential electors system, and thus, instead of a 5-5 tie, it becomes a 10-0 win for Adams, or a swing of 10 electors, meaning the final tally becomes 70-68 Adams. or numerous other examples.) and Jefferson decides that a new revolution is needed, (Again unlikely though considering Jefferson didn't wage war in 1796.) maybe Hamilton doesn't interfere and Burr and Jefferson end up in a Civil War against each other, or maybe Adams declares that due to the deadlock in the Senate caused by Hamilton not interfering, he is going to continue as President, which causes people to view him as a monarch and causes a war between Adams' supporters and Jefferson-Burr's supporters (unlikely because Hamilton would have rallied folks to vote for Jefferson then- he hated Adams at that point).
So I think those are the possibilities
1. Adams v Jefferson in a Jefferson win
2. Jefferson v Adams in an Adams win
3. Jefferson v Burr in a deadlocked Senate
4. Adams v Jefferson (v Burr) in a deadlocked Senate where Adams holds on to power.
And I think option 3 is more likely, just need a why for Hamilton not interfering. Also it's more exciting as it's the same party that has split and that has become different sides in the Civil War.
The other possibility is Jackson declaring war after 1824, but I think that's a 50-50 split between him seceding and forming a new country, and marching on Washington DC to seize the White House since he had the most electoral votes as well as the popular vote. While Jackson doing something hot-headed is a little boring, they are both of the same party, and if Jackson succeeds in his Civil War, I could then see New England seceeding from the Jacksonian America, with Adams as the President.