AH Challenge: Abrahamic Religions Minority.

Where do you find your numbers?
"At the height of Roman power in the mid 2nd century AD, conservative opinion is that the Empire was comprised of some 65 million people"
http://www.unrv.com/empire/roman-population.php
If we assume some 60-70, or at most 100 million of the Roman subjects, then 10% would mean 6 to 10 million Jews. It seems much more plausible, isn't it?

No, not really. 10% is not implausible because of absolute numbers but because of relative populations. Six million Jews out of sixty million inhabitants is as implausible as twenty million out of two hundred million.
 
No, not really. 10% is not implausible because of absolute numbers but because of relative populations. Six million Jews out of sixty million inhabitants is as implausible as twenty million out of two hundred million.
Why? There were 10% of Jews in population of Ukraine (up to 20% in some regions) and 15% of them in Lithuania and Belarus at the end of the 19th century. And it was so even without real Jewish homeland within borders of these countries. Roman Empire had a Jewish-majority province, as well as strong Jewish diaspora.
 
Why? There were 10% of Jews in population of Ukraine (up to 20% in some regions) and 15% of them in Lithuania and Belarus at the end of the 19th century. And it was so even without real Jewish homeland within borders of these countries. Roman Empire had a Jewish-majority province, as well as strong Jewish diaspora.

I don't think the evidence bears it out. Look at the comparison: in Ukraine and Poland you don't find a town without a shul, almost eery city has at least one rabbinic dynasty. There is very little evidence for synagogues in the Latin part of the Empire and very little for any presence ogf Jews at all. That is significant because we have this evidence in the East, and we hae good evidence for other minority religions in the west (e.g. Mithraism, the cult of Iuppiter Dolichenus or Isidianism). Also, look at the rabbinic tradition post-Temple. The writings are there, they surive in great quantity, and they come from Babylon, from Adiabene, from Alexandria, from Judaea, from Syria. There are no Talmudic writers in the Gallia Lugdunensis, in the Tripolis or in Spain. I would argue that is simply because the Jewish communities there are too small and comparatively isolated compared to the large and connected Jewish world of the old Aramaic oikumene. It just makes more sense than to assume a uniform Jewish population that somehow leaves more evidence of its existence the further East you go.
 

Jasen777

Donor
It wouldn't take much. They are only a slight majority.

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It wouldn't take much. They are only a slight majority.

Wouldn't take much? What POD/set of POD's would it take to reduce the number of people world-wide who identify themselves as either Christian or Muslim from their present level, a combined 54% of the world's population according to your pie chart, down to to a level of less then 10% combined, which is the OP is looking for?
 
Lets see, getting on topic here I propose:

1. Ceaser was not assassinated at the forum thus Constantine supports a Mithraseaum type religion instead of a Christian based one and prosecutes all other religions and ends up with a Pagan-Celtic Albion(See: Sideways in Crime: Running the Snake).

2. A more sucessful Sassaniad Persian Empire which allows it to overtake Mesopotamia and the Levent.

3. One of the other Mystery Religions, o Isis and Serapis, Mithras, Buddha, etc are just more popular then Judaism and Christianity.

4. Moses does not succeed to bring the Hebrews out of Egypt thus butterflying all of the Old Testament of the Exodus and afterward (See: Roma Eterna).
 
3. One of the other Mystery Religions, o Isis and Serapis, Mithras, Buddha, etc are just more popular then Judaism and Christianity.

Very much agreed. As far as I know, many of the early Christian missionaries were quite adept at twisted mystery cult teachings and local gods into Christianity. If the early missionaries failed at this, a catalyst in the form of a a prophet or organized priesthood for one of the cults might turn it into a major religion within the empire, either working against or entirely preventing/butterflying away Christianity and Islam.
 
Very much agreed. As far as I know, many of the early Christian missionaries were quite adept at twisted mystery cult teachings and local gods into Christianity. If the early missionaries failed at this, a catalyst in the form of a a prophet or organized priesthood for one of the cults might turn it into a major religion within the empire, either working against or entirely preventing/butterflying away Christianity and Islam.

Your understanding seems a bit askew to me. What primary sources are you basing this statement upon?
 
It wouldn't take much. They are only a slight majority.
Wouldn't take much?! :eek:
They're at 54% of global population. The second largest is non-religious, which is 38 percentage points lower. Until enough Christians or Muslims become nonreligious so as to make it more even (20 percentage point shift = 34% Abrahamic, 36% nonreligious), Abrahamic practitioners are going to have a strong plurality if not outright majority. Even if Abrahamic religions were followed by "only" 49% of the global population, they still would have a very strong plurality over any alternatives.
 
The POD could a bit later. One where Christianity gains ground early in the millennium but then looses it with the emergence of new faiths. Islam would need to be butterflied away.

I thought of developing an idea in which Pope Gregory the Great never comes into power and thus many of the reforms necessary for Christianity (or rather the Catholic Church) to survive the fall of the Roman Empire never come into being.

At this point most of Northern and Easter Europe still remained pagan; Pope Gregory I was the one who really made an effort to start missions there. And there is still chance for an Isis cult type of religion to emerge in North Africa. The idea would be to have a new religion emerge out of the paganism in Northern Europe and expand until it covered most of Northern Europe and Central Asia. And another religion to start in North Africa and spread south and Eastwards.

The cool thing about this is that there is still a chance for Islam to develop since Mohammed, although not preaching yet, had already been born. But if it does not develop enough momentum it might not spread as fast.

Also you do not necessarily need to butterfly Christianity or Islam. They can still be around as long they never make over 50% of the world population together.
 
For the sportive challenge of AH, I try to come up with an really late PoD,
and hopefully, plausible alternate assumptions. At least, I neither erase
existing religions nor invent new ones.

Assume that Djingis Khan does not just let Muslim, Buddhist, and Christian missionaries dispute at his court, but have him embrace Buddhism.
If (second divergence assumption) the Mongol Empire last for a bit longer,
or control is a bit more intensive, we might derive
(i) a Buddhist Moscow,
(ii) Buddhist Turkic empires
from here, an further from the latter
(iii) a Buddhist Persia, Baluchistan and Mumbai.

Even if I can fill in the details for this sketch, it is obvious that it does not yet
do the trick. But it may be a starting point.

It remains to say that with this massive expansion of Buddhism,
local variants will of course develop or even split beyond recognition.
The main problem with this timeline sketch is the fact that the Mongols
did not exert that much cultural influence on their subdued peoples,
despite all their military strength.


And yes, as far as I understood the initial posting, "minority" is not meant in the sense
"fewer than half" or "fewer than each other indiviual group", but in the sence "splinter group".
 
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