AH Challenge: A strong Spain

With a POD after 1900, make Spain a credible power in Europe by the time WW2 begins. It may or may not have been neutral in WW1, but I suspect it will have been because I dont think it has much to gain by entering that conflict. The idea is that by the time WW2 starts, Spain is strong enough that it is taken to be a serious potential ally/enemy of the major combatants. Bonus points if Spain controls Gibraltar post WW2 (peacefully or taken).
 

Glen

Moderator
With a POD after 1900, make Spain a credible power in Europe by the time WW2 begins. It may or may not have been neutral in WW1, but I suspect it will have been because I dont think it has much to gain by entering that conflict.

Agreed.

The idea is that by the time WW2 starts, Spain is strong enough that it is taken to be a serious potential ally/enemy of the major combatants.

It was. Hitler and Mussolini tried very hard to get them to join the Axis, but Franco was just a bit too smart for that.

Bonus points if Spain controls Gibraltar post WW2 (peacefully or taken).

NEVER!!!!;)
 
if it's after 1900's the key would be the SCW wouldn't it (spanish civil war), dunno much about the subject butif there was a successful coup could there have been a successful re-militarisation ala germany post ww1?

like i say dunno anything really about the SCW (apart from one guy was named Franco) and the only time that really stuck in my head after 1900
 

Glen

Moderator
if it's after 1900's the key would be the SCW wouldn't it (spanish civil war), dunno much about the subject butif there was a successful coup could there have been a successful re-militarisation ala germany post ww1?

like i say dunno anything really about the SCW (apart from one guy was named Franco) and the only time that really stuck in my head after 1900

Actually, you'd probably have to start pretty much around 1900 and build up a steady stream of small to medium sized divergences to the benefit of the Spanish economic and political situation such that by the time of the Spanish Civil War there's no compelling reason to go to war. Such a timeline would probably prevent the rise of Franco to control of the nation. Also would likely keep Spain out of the Axis camp anyway.
 
Being neutral in WWI is a must. OTL Spain had a steady economical growth during the war due to being able to trade with both sides. Two POD's:

a) José Canalejasis not murdered by an anarchist in 1912. With him in charge, Spain's fake constitutional democracy evolves into a real democracy and Spain can both profit from WWI and roaring 20's economic growth together with democracy to enter the 30's in a much better shape and enjoying at least a limited political stability. Butterflying away the complete clusterfuck thw Rif War was (the Annual Disaster in 1921 is considered the worst defeat a spanish army has ever endured) would also help.

b)General Primo de Rivera is a bit more decided and after his coup in 1923 he turns Spain on a true fascist dictatorship along italian lines instead of liberalizing his government in 1925 and finally stepping away in 1930, taking the king's prestige with him and making the Republic unavoidable.
 
It was. Hitler and Mussolini tried very hard to get them to join the Axis, but Franco was just a bit too smart for that.

I realise the Axis did in fact court Spain for entry into the war, but their contribution would have been limited. Besides capturing Gibraltar (which is a significant strategic asset), I do not think there is much more Spain could have done other then providing another front that will distract the allies.

The idea of this AH is for Spain to have the capacity to alter the outcome of the war (on either side) before perhaps the entry of Soviet Union or USA (Spain does not have the capacity for Superpower status). Perhaps a spain allied with France from the start, with a highly militarized border - I could imagine Hitler suffering Napoleans mistake of a 'running sore'. If Hitler failed to decisevly defeat Spain, it may make Mussolinni hesitate for entry pending its outcome.

Even a strong neutral Spain has interesting consequences for post-ww2, of course it depends on its government of the day. If a fascist government exists it may create a 'third way' between the cold war sides of Capitalism/Communism. In such a scenario if Italy didnt enter the war, she would be a member of such an alliance.

Thanks for your responses, my knowledge of history is confined to general outcomes and not statistics. I will write up a small timeline in the near future perhaps regarding this.
 
Being neutral in WWI is a must. OTL Spain had a steady economical growth during the war due to being able to trade with both sides. Two POD's:

a) José Canalejasis not murdered by an anarchist in 1912. With him in charge, Spain's fake constitutional democracy evolves into a real democracy and Spain can both profit from WWI and roaring 20's economic growth together with democracy to enter the 30's in a much better shape and enjoying at least a limited political stability. Butterflying away the complete clusterfuck thw Rif War was (the Annual Disaster in 1921 is considered the worst defeat a spanish army has ever endured) would also help.

My exact first thought (Why Oh Why do anarchists only kill the wrong people...?).

b)General Primo de Rivera is a bit more decided and after his coup in 1923 he turns Spain on a true fascist dictatorship along italian lines instead of liberalizing his government in 1925 and finally stepping away in 1930, taking the king's prestige with him and making the Republic unavoidable.
I'll say here Alfonso XIII refusing to give his aprobation to Primo's coup instead, and appearing like the liberal and reformer king he claimed to be at first instead of looking as a puppet in the hands of his own Mussolini. Not to mention that the people who benefited with the Dictablanda would not take the taste of power and stage the later coup against the republic.

Seriously, i've read that at first Primo's coup was so far from succeed that a simple police operation could have crushed it. It was Alfonso XIII's non-cooperative stance that seriously compromised the response of the president of the time, and made Primo de Rivera's success possible.
 
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