With a POD no earlier than 1980, how could Yugoslavia have experienced a less violent (or even peaceful) breakup than it did IOTL?
Even by Eastern Front standards there was a great deal of really sick shit going on inside Yugoslavia in WW2. Everybody killed everybody else with no mercy.
The one thing I can think of is Croatia, Slowenia and Bosnia securing the local arms depots before the Army(=Serbs) can empty them and blockade the barracks until the Army departs without its heavy weapons. That could make Croatia, Slowenia and Bosnia well enough armed to make Serbia cautious.
The problem is that Croatia in Bosnia have indigenous ethnic minorities who wouldlook to their mother country. So even if new central gov't has the weapons locals may not want to be part of this new state.
There are 3 ethnic groups in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Croats, Muslims and Serbs.
Members of all 3 groups woud have the Teritorial Defence weapons.
It means that, if no sparks from Serbia, Croatia woud be perfectly pleased to break from Yugoslavia, Serbs and Croats in B&H to get a good constitutional status in independent Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Muslims to get a independent state of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
![]()
That would require less nationalist regime in Serbia, which could in turn reduce separatist tendencis and prevent breakup.
That would require less nationalist regime in Serbia, which could in turn reduce separatist tendencis and prevent breakup.
As for each group having weapons, that opens door for somalisation/Lebanonisation. Everybody has weapons and is willing to use them to prevent/enforce will of the new central gov't.
Thing is, I don't really see a Serbo-Croat alliance existing in the first place, what with the horrific bad blood between Serbs and Croats.
In that case you must devise a way that, by using Any Means Necessary, keeps the West's envoys out of the whole thing.There's an infamous rumour of an agreement stipulated on a napkin between Croat and Serb leaders on dividing Bosnia between them. Of course, it could be a lie, but knowing the personas involved it's entirely possible it actually happened before Western intervention torpedoed it.
One way would be to have Croatia and Serbia partition Bosnia, as was planned. Croatia takes Herceg-Bosnia and some surrounding territory, Serbia takes most of modern Republika Srpska. International pressure causes Serbia to sign a treaty with a Bosnian Muslim rump state. The Serbs of Krajina are not ethnic cleansed because Serbia and Croatia are allied, Vukovar isn't destroyed and there isn't a war in Kosovo because we assume a less nationalist leader than Milosevic.
The outcome would be a bigger Croatia and a bigger Serbia, both countries on good terms. Bosnians, of all ethnic groups, would face less casualties because a combined Serbo-Croat force would quickly crush any Bosniak resistance. The war would be over before a large number of atrocities on any side could take place.
The Bosniak state would be the side of about 1/4 of modern BiH and would be located in the center of the country. Its very existence is kind of optimistic, as I can't see why the Serbo-Croat alliance would allow it to exist...
^
You'd be surprised. Despite the horrific Jasenovac genocide of World War II, Serbian and Croatian officials initially cooperated in the conflict. With a POD around 1980, it is very possible to have Serbia and Croatia form a pact to partition Bosnia. Even after war erupted and the Krajina Serbs were fighting the Croats for independence, war songs echo the sentiment that if the Serbs and Croats partitioned Bosnia, that the war would stop.
An alliance? Maybe not, but co-belligerence is certainly possible. Serbia and Croatia leave each other alone and partition Bosnia-Herzegovina between them.
There's an infamous rumour of an agreement stipulated on a napkin between Croat and Serb leaders on dividing Bosnia between them. Of course, it could be a lie, but knowing the personas involved it's entirely possible it actually happened before Western intervention torpedoed it.
It seems to me that you have forget chetnik genocide over Croats in WW2?
BTW. chetnik attrocities against of Croats began 10. 4. 1941., LONG before Jasenovac crimes...
![]()
If anyone had made plans for dividing of B&H, the most talented guys tor that business were Western envoys.