POD 1895
Japan takes Hainan island along Taiwan.
1905
Due to holding Hianan, the Japanese have a bigger Navy including more Marines.
Wanting to get some more of the Fame & Glory, the IJN [Marines] invades Sakhalin. They gain control of the entire Island and remove the Russian Administrators, replacing them with Japanese.
In the Treaty of Portsmouth Japan gains control of the entire Island. This Helps US/Japanese relations, as the Japanese don't feel betrayed by the US.
26-Oct-1909
Korean emperor Gojong, (1852-1919), is accused of plotting the attempted assassination, by An Jung-geun's, of Hirobumi Ito, the first Japanese prime minister, who had just been appointed Resident General of Korea,
1910
Resident General Hirobumi Ito begins a extensive assumulation program for Korea, due to his prestige this will become the Official policy for Taiwan and Hianan also.
1914
Japan DoWs Germany. Japan Captures German Islands north of the Equator, Occupies German Concessions in China.
Included is a occupation of the Parcel & Spatley Islands. None of the Major Powers takes much notice of this occupation.
1915
Japan sends several Cruisers, along with a dozen destroyers to help Britian in the Med. These will be rotated thru several tours.
The Japanese participate in several Franco-Italian forays in the Adriatic.
This cooperation along with port visits in France, help diffuse the growing tensions over Japanese Hianan and French zones in south China.
1919
US requests Japan send 7000 troops to help the US rescue the Czech Legion,that is escaping along the Trans Siberian.
In a narrow vote the Diet turns down the Request. But, Before the Government can resolve the problem and reschedule the vote, the Army & Navy Ministers resign and bringing down the Government.
When The Diet learns the Navy Minister has sent in the Marines without the Diet's authorization, The minor problem expands into a major Constitutional Crisis.
1921
The February 26 incident was an attempted coup d'état in Japan, from February 26 to 29, 1921 carried out by 1,483 troops of the Imperial Japanese Army. Several leading politicians were killed and the center of Tokyo was briefly occupied by the rebelling troops. At that time, the incident was called the deplorable incident in the capital .
Most of the rebelling Army Officers ended being arrested by Naval Marines.
The rest of the year would be spend debating a new Constitution.
1922
A new Constitution is adopted. Very Liberal for the period. It insures full rites for/includes Sakhalin, Taiwan, Hianan, and Korea in the Constitution as part of Imperial Japan.
However it included stringent provisions limiting the political power/participation of the Military.
1928
In 1928 Chang Tso-lin Warload in Control of Manchuria, was growing less cooperative toward the Japanese army in Manchuria and he went to Beijing to make his submission to Chiang Kai-shek. He was killed as his train Derailed as he was returning to Shenyang having just handed over control of Beijing to the Kuomintang and Chiang Kai-shek.
It has long been rumored The derailment was a bomb. As part of a plot to secure nearly all parts of Manchuria beyond the South Manchurian Railway Zone, which was ceded to Japan after the Russo-Japanese War.
Whether the Rumor was true or not, The Civilian Government in Tokyo took no Chances.
Officers and NCO's were transferred around breaking up some units that had been part of South Manchurian Railway Zone since 1906.
The Japanese Government also opened talks with Beijing, over joint control of the South Manchurian Railway Zone, in the same way as China shared control with Russia over the North Manchurian Railway Zone.
1929
The Sino-Soviet conflict of 1929 was a minor armed conflict between the Soviet Union and the Republic of China over the Manchurian Chinese Eastern Railway.
When the Chinese seized the Manchurian Chinese Eastern Railway in 1929, swift Soviet military intervention quickly put an end to the crisis and forced the Chinese to accept restoration of joint Soviet-Chinese administration of the railway.
The Soviets Blamed the Japanese and their talks about joint Control for causing the Crisis.
1932
In 1932, when warlords Feng Yuxiang and Yan Xishan attempted to overthrow Chiang Kai-shek's Kuomintang government, Zhang Xueliang [warlord Manchuria] stepped in to support the Nanjing government against the northern warlords in exchange for independent control of the Chinese Eastern Railway and the customs revenues from the port city of Tianjin.
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Chinese_Eastern_Railway-en.svg]
over the next several years Zhang's Manchu troops will replace the Han Chinese troops in both the northern and southern railroad zones.
1934
Under pressure from the LoN - Britain, France, Portugal, Japan sign a Treaty with China giving up all claims of Extraterritorial Privilege.
In return China agrees to extend the Leases of the leased territories for 50 years,
1936
Japan replaces France as the 3rd largest investor in China [behind US and UK], However it is the largest investor in Manchuria.
Japan has Hired Farmers/Ranchers from Canada/US Great Plains to help set up large Farms/Ranches in Manchuria's Northern Plains.
Most of Zhang's Troops are being equipped by Japan, and being used to Fight Communists in Manchuria.
This is bringing them in conflict with the Russians in the North Manchurian Railway Zone.
[note -- there is no Zhang kidnapping of Chiang Kai-shek, to force Chiang to join a common front against the Japanese. So the Chinese Civil War continues]
1939
Germany invades Poland WW2 begins, Japan declares neutrality, cancels the latest rounds of Port Visits to France and GB. However Japan keeps the Port Visits to Italy and Turkey.
1940
Fall Gelb - Germany invades West, France, Netherlands , Norway falls. Italy enters war,
1941
Operation Barbarossa -Germany invades East.
Chinese Workers in the North Manchurian Railway Zone go on strike, backed by Zhang's Troops. After several Weeks Russia agrees to Give Russian share of Railroad to China.
1942
Large Free French force Invades Vichy Vietnam,
That most of the force was transported in Japanese ships, and the French Planes flew from Japanese Carriers goes unnoticed in newsreels, but not in Berlin and Rome.
In a Rage, Hitler declares War on Japan.
Japanese Ships join British ships in anti Sub Patrols in the Med & Atlantic.
1943
Japanese Ships transport Lend-Lease to Russia. The new Factories in Korea also produce Equipment/Supplies, to be sold to Russia.
1944
Despite millions spent by Japan in equipping the KMT, the Communists have gained control of most of the West of China.
1945
End of WW 2
Philippines gain Independence.
No Atomic Bomb. Tube Project continues.
1949
Communist sweep out of the west, Capturing most of the south as KMT troops tired of the Corruption, change sides.
Zhang's troops move south
Well trained and equipped by the Japanese, they manage to hold the coast as far south as Shanghai. [Japanese Navy helps Ally]
1950
Cease Fire in Chinese Civil War -- It will hold for the next 60 years [aka Korean cease fire]
Japanese giving full rights to Koreans is a potential tinderbox. I guess it could be gotten away with (there were a few million Koreans who moved to Japan for various reasons BESIDES forced labor or economic reasons), but it depends on how much Japan attempts to assimilate Korea (as in the early and late parts of the occupation period) or if they are far more lenient about cultural things, aka no soshi-kamei or related stuff).
Japan helping the ROC/KMT forces that extensively, could work, I guess the only reason I can see it working is assuming Japan as an empire is much more capable, more integrated, and can actually concentrate all their efforts against the Chinese Communists rather than the OTL WWII which is one of the reasons they got screwed so badly.
Interesting idea having China actually divided and maintain a ceasefire that long. Hell of a long DMZ if you turn the cease-fire Korea style like you had said.
Not bad