AH Challenge: A Confederate Victory at Gettysburg

bard32

Banned
I have a challenge for you. How would you have the Confederates win at Gettysburg? No Pickett's Charge, please.
 
That was a DEPRESSING book.:(

Yeah, but also a very good one (apart from the semi-insane CSAwank). I like how the protagonist is absolutely horrified by what he does, even though he's created a world that's vastly better in pretty much every way.
 
The confederates get to lil roundtop first. or a good author could have the confederates take the place by storm... if you ever get the chance the battle field today is a great place to see/visit, especially before some one develops the hell out of it
 
The secret for a Confederate victory at Gettysburg is not fighting there in the first place...


I should place a trade mark on that often stated line of mine
 
Very, Very, Very hard to do.... and if you want a war changing victory it's nearly impossible.

By the summer of 1863 the AOP was a very good army man for man, and Regiment for Regiment. The leadership Maj to COL, and Non_Comm was solid. And they understood, possiblity better than any Confederate other than Longstreet how to fight on a modern " rifled" battlefield.

Even the Cavalry, look at what Buford did to Heath on day one and Custer to Stuart on Day three.

Tthe majority of the division and Corp commanders were equal to their Confederate peers.

They were just waiting for a commanding general who understood how to use them, and not afraid to stay in the fight the moment Lee pulled a flanking moment.

So to give the Confederate at least a minor tactical victory, without Meade doing something stupid (ie Burnside or Pope), which Meade was to solid to do as long as Washington let him fight his battle or Lee listening to Longstreet and falling back to the ridge line west of town (Seminary Ridge), which wasn't going to happen with R.E. Lee in July 1863.

1. Day one, Have Heth push thru Buford and Reynolds (I Corp), quicker before all of I Corps arrives and deny the AOP Cementary Hill, Ridge and Culp Hill. The next defendable line is Rock Creek and it isn't great, and Hancock (senior after Reynolds is killed, till late Day One) isn't stupid. You get a series of AOP fall backs looking for "good" ground and staying between Lee and Virginia (as well as Washington*), small fights, AONV wins was loses men, eventually I suspect IVO Tanneytown, MD (which if I remember has good ridge lines) the AOP digs in, and we fights, bloodies the AONV to the point it has to advance to the rear (Virginia).

2. Day Two, The rounds tops fall, once again Meade and AOP fall back to Rock Creek hurt but in reasonable order (at this point no manner what Lee thought the majority of the Union Army wasn't going break and run. Longstreets Corp is too beat up taking the Round Tops to close the trap anyway. Once again minor victory for Lee, "He has the field," but so what the AOP beaten, one, maybe two Corps are out of the fight, there are still 5 others... Lee has to advance back to Virginia.

3. Day Three, it's over Lee has to win by Day Two.

So in the end, at most Lee get a tactical victory, I don't see the going any longer.
 

burmafrd

Banned
If the Confederates do not take the high ground the first day they do not win the battle. Simple as that. If they do then the AOP simple retreats so as to keep itself between the ANV and Washington. Lee was determined to attack and Meade was determined to defend against an attack. Outside of a MAJOR screw up by Meade its not going to happen.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
The Confederates occupy Little Round Top on day two. See Bring the Jubilee.

Does really work, there are only 2 gun positions facing north. During Pickett's charge the majority of the Union artillery on LRT didn't get into action because of the lack of gun positions (only 2 guns were in action).

One PoD is simply to have the attack on day 3 work. Have the CS fuses cut better or replace Pickett as DC, his decision to conduct a left oblique for 7 minutes a mere 500 yds from the Federal gunline was fatal, all the Federal guns got an uninterupted shoot at a constant range, each putting 14 rounds of canister into what was essentially a stationary target. The Divisions was prettymuch broken at that point, and those that reached the sunken lane (still out of rifle range) simply refused to advance any further.
 

bard32

Banned
The Confederates occupy Little Round Top on day two. See Bring the Jubilee.

In Newt Gingrich and William R. Fortschen's novel Gettysburg, they had
the Confederates take Chambersburg, which was part of the Union's supply lines and forcing the Army of the Potomac to live off the land, making the forces equal. Would that scenario have worked?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
On day one, Lee orders Ewell to take Cemetary Hill "at all costs." The Yankees cannot remain on the field and, during the night, they retreat to the south. And yes, the AoP can fall back to a more easily defensible position, but the political and diplomatic ramifications of a major Confederate victory on Northern soil are immense.
 

bard32

Banned
Very, Very, Very hard to do.... and if you want a war changing victory it's nearly impossible.

By the summer of 1863 the AOP was a very good army man for man, and Regiment for Regiment. The leadership Maj to COL, and Non_Comm was solid. And they understood, possiblity better than any Confederate other than Longstreet how to fight on a modern " rifled" battlefield.

Even the Cavalry, look at what Buford did to Heath on day one and Custer to Stuart on Day three.

Tthe majority of the division and Corp commanders were equal to their Confederate peers.

They were just waiting for a commanding general who understood how to use them, and not afraid to stay in the fight the moment Lee pulled a flanking moment.

So to give the Confederate at least a minor tactical victory, without Meade doing something stupid (ie Burnside or Pope), which Meade was to solid to do as long as Washington let him fight his battle or Lee listening to Longstreet and falling back to the ridge line west of town (Seminary Ridge), which wasn't going to happen with R.E. Lee in July 1863.

1. Day one, Have Heth push thru Buford and Reynolds (I Corp), quicker before all of I Corps arrives and deny the AOP Cementary Hill, Ridge and Culp Hill. The next defendable line is Rock Creek and it isn't great, and Hancock (senior after Reynolds is killed, till late Day One) isn't stupid. You get a series of AOP fall backs looking for "good" ground and staying between Lee and Virginia (as well as Washington*), small fights, AONV wins was loses men, eventually I suspect IVO Tanneytown, MD (which if I remember has good ridge lines) the AOP digs in, and we fights, bloodies the AONV to the point it has to advance to the rear (Virginia).

2. Day Two, The rounds tops fall, once again Meade and AOP fall back to Rock Creek hurt but in reasonable order (at this point no manner what Lee thought the majority of the Union Army wasn't going break and run. Longstreets Corp is too beat up taking the Round Tops to close the trap anyway. Once again minor victory for Lee, "He has the field," but so what the AOP beaten, one, maybe two Corps are out of the fight, there are still 5 others... Lee has to advance back to Virginia.

3. Day Three, it's over Lee has to win by Day Two.

So in the end, at most Lee get a tactical victory, I don't see the going any longer.

Custer was in a Michigan cavalry regiment at the time. Two years into the Civil War, the Army of the Potomac's cavalry was as good as, or better than,
that of the Army of Northern Virginia. Stuart was a good commander. Southerners, before the Civil War, made up the majority of the U.S. Cavalry.
 
A Confederate victory on Day 1 vis a vis Cemetary and Culps Hills is NOT equivalent to winning the battle. An east-west line can easily be formed from Power's Hill and McAllister's Hill on the right across wooded area to Cemetary ridge, then refuse the left back towards the Round Tops. No, it's not as good as in OTL, but Meade was pushed not only by Washington but by most of the corps commanders to at a minimum stand and fight.

However......the way to turn this into a Confederate victory, overall, is to have Lee make a virtually impregnable defensive position from Benner's Hill to Culp's to Cemetary Hill to Seminary Ridge, top rimmed with artillery. This is taken evening of July 1 by Ewell, via Early, and the arriving Johnson.

July 2 sees most of the entrenchments dug. By this point, Ewell is on the left (east), Hill on the right (west), with Johnson and Anderson holding the main line. During the day, Lee just cannonades the Union army as it assembles, easily repels any direct attacks, and Meade is not about to flank him. Meanwhile, Longstreet arrives during the day, and Stuart finally comes gallavanting in by sundown.

To win the campaign, as opposed to the battle, during the night Lee starts his army on the march NE-ward. Ewell leads, followed by Hill. Longstreet and Stuart stay behind as the 'rear guard', even though it is not a retreat. Using a combination of the Carslile road, the Harrisburg Road, and others, Lee strikes hard into Pa, soon capturing Harrisburg because he is now totally north and north-east of the Union army, finally re-united with Stuart, who can now guard his flanks. As long as he keeps moving, with the Union army behind him, the invasion of the north can continue unchecked.
 
Top