OK, here's the challenge. Create a situation in which Japan avoids a Pacific War by acting rationally across the board, to satisfy both American political needs and national honor. I know those two things were largely inconsistent - the IJA and the US China Lobby were diametrically opposed - but is there any reasonable POD you can come up with that would allow Japan to avoid war with the United States and also survive economically (ie, not run out of oil, steel, etc.)?
War with Britain/France/Dutch is allowed, if you can make it happen without drawing in the US. That war, at least, was winnable for Japan.
Does winding down China to placate the US, but replacing it with a "Go North" campaign to placate the Army, make any sense at all? That's all I can really come up with off the top of my head. Deploying the entire Kwangtung Army, and the bulk of the IJA in China, against the Soviet Far East at the same time as they were fighting the Germans should be a fairly winnable campaign for the Japanese, with the added bonus that even if Britain declared war in support of the Soviets, the Americans would probably be politically unable to do so.
War with Britain/France/Dutch is allowed, if you can make it happen without drawing in the US. That war, at least, was winnable for Japan.
Does winding down China to placate the US, but replacing it with a "Go North" campaign to placate the Army, make any sense at all? That's all I can really come up with off the top of my head. Deploying the entire Kwangtung Army, and the bulk of the IJA in China, against the Soviet Far East at the same time as they were fighting the Germans should be a fairly winnable campaign for the Japanese, with the added bonus that even if Britain declared war in support of the Soviets, the Americans would probably be politically unable to do so.