AH Challange: Surviving Ostrogoth Kingdom

How can we make the Ostrogoth Kingdom survive until the present day? (Must be a direct successor state, with a noticeably Gothic culture and language, but can include as much Romance influence as necessary.)
 
The idea of "Reconquest" of the West had been around for some time in New Rome. In 468 the East and West Roman Empire went on their last combined expedition, attempting to retake Africa from the Vandals. They suffered a massive defeat. Fear of a second defeat actually meant that there was some opposition to Justinian's expedition. Belisarius nearly lost two battles during the Vandal Campaign, and the Vandals were caught wrong-footed when he invaded, with most of the Vandal army crushing a revolt in Corsica or Sardinia. Belisarius then invaded Italy and quickly took over the penisula nearly intact, having used a ruse to get the Ostrogothic nobility to surrender to him by pretending to accept their offer of the Kingship. Justinian suspected Belisarius of treason and recalled him, and without Belisarius the Goths were able to nearly retake all of Italy, beginning the cycle of back and forth that destroyed Italy and the Goths. Following the Lombard invasion in the late 6th century the Ostrogoths basically ceased to exist as a group.

So a few ideas for a continued Ostrogothic Kingdom:
1- Kill Belisarius. The man was a genius and when reading the history of the period one realizes that the East Romans didn't really win battles or wars without him commanding the army.

2- Have Theodoric's son-in-law Eutharic survive. The Goths nearly won the war against the Romans several times, all with a competent adult King at their head. Eutharic pre-deceased Theodoric by about a year, and was the father of Theodoric's successor Athalaric. If Eutharic is alive and well, even with the successful invasion of Africa, then I think that invading Italy does not look like a good idea. OTL the Italy that Belisarius invaded was politically divided and weak. With Eutharic carrying on the policies of his father-in-law, then Italy would be anything but weak.

Quick point. In the early 530's Theodoric's other grandson, the King of the Visigoths in Spain, was killed while fighting off a Frankish invasion. He appears to have been a weak and disliked King. If he still gets killed off in a timeline where Eutharic lives, then Eutharic could drive off the Frankish army and get himself elected King of the Visigoths. In OTL Theodoric's grandson's successor was a Goth noble who got the Franks to leave, because the man had no sons. In ATL, Eutharic is elected King with a Ostrogothic army behind him, and formally unites the Gothic thrones. Eutharic will be the first "King of the Goths." With the united strength of Spain and Italy, behind a competent and popular I think Justinian may settle for Africa.
 
How can we make the Ostrogoth Kingdom survive until the present day? (Must be a direct successor state, with a noticeably Gothic culture and language, but can include as much Romance influence as necessary.)
Does it have to be a kingdom as such? I do have a nice idea about a demi-Greek/Tatar Prince-Bishophoric surviving in the Crimea....

HTG
 
Keep 'em East, and don't send 'em West. Then have some huge super Gothic-barbaric kingdom in the Crimea and the Ukraine which eventually goes on to conquer the Moon.
 
Keep 'em East, and don't send 'em West. Then have some huge super Gothic-barbaric kingdom in the Crimea and the Ukraine which eventually goes on to conquer the Moon.

Problem is the Huns are coming and if you manage to butterfly them away there will be later steppe invaders. Until the development of gunpowder and modern military organisation the steppe powers were always too great a threat for a major settled state in this region. Furthermore, if you don't have the Huns pushing westward and driving the Goths and others ahead of them what happens in Rome. If the empire survives because of less pressure it could also be a fatal threat to the Gothic state.

How about have Belisarius genuinely switch sides. He seems to have been far too honest for his own good and loyal to the paranoid Justinian. However if say he has a different wife or a trusted advisor who gains evidence that Justinian is about to sack him it might be possible. As Matthias says he was a genius and could well have maintained a powerful state, campaigning in the Balkans to protect Gothic lands there. Justinian will be enraged but having lost an army and his best general he could face problems both internally and in the east. Also, given the difference between the gallant and honourable Belisarius and Justinian's tax-gatherers you might well see revolt in Africa as well. If the Vandals joined with the Ostrogoth kingdom and quickly rebuilt their naval dominance the two would be pretty safe and very wealthy. If you wanted you could have a later intervention against the Franks to aid their Visigoth cousins seeing Frankish power largely driven from the Med basin.

Difficult to say how much of a Gothic culture could survive since I think the vast majority of the population was still Italian and Roman culture still held in very high esteem. However a strong element could survive as a clear culture in the peninsula. [More difficult to see a continuous successor state given your talking about 1500 years in a pretty exposed area. However something should be possible].

Steve
 
Actually, if you have them convert to Catholicism early, and the Franks stayed Arian, then the Goths could be the power that the Franks were. Not, mind you, that modern France has a lot of visible connexion to the Franks aside from the name of the country.
 
Actually, if you have them convert to Catholicism early, and the Franks stayed Arian, then the Goths could be the power that the Franks were. Not, mind you, that modern France has a lot of visible connexion to the Franks aside from the name of the country.

The fact the Goths were Arian, as were most of the other Germanic invaders was a big problem for them. However I think the Franks went straight from paganism to Catholicism, which was probably an easier step than from a different Christian sect. [Possibly the single biggest advantage the Franks had over their rivals as they were able to pose as liberators for the bulk of the population that remained Catholic].

Steve
 
Problem is the Huns are coming and if you manage to butterfly them away there will be later steppe invaders. Until the development of gunpowder and modern military organisation the steppe powers were always too great a threat for a major settled state in this region. Furthermore, if you don't have the Huns pushing westward and driving the Goths and others ahead of them what happens in Rome. If the empire survives because of less pressure it could also be a fatal threat to the Gothic state.

If the Goths stay in the Ukraine they'll be destroyed. Before gunpowder the steppe peoples were going to beat settled peoples on the steppe, period.

How about have Belisarius genuinely switch sides. He seems to have been far too honest for his own good and loyal to the paranoid Justinian. However if say he has a different wife or a trusted advisor who gains evidence that Justinian is about to sack him it might be possible. As Matthias says he was a genius and could well have maintained a powerful state, campaigning in the Balkans to protect Gothic lands there. Justinian will be enraged but having lost an army and his best general he could face problems both internally and in the east. Also, given the difference between the gallant and honourable Belisarius and Justinian's tax-gatherers you might well see revolt in Africa as well.

These are good reasons for him to leave Justinian's service, but go over to the Goths is a whole new step. I think that if Belisarius was disloyal you would see the treacherous general turn his loyal and victorious army on the Empire, and take the Purple by force. Which, btw, would be the first such coup d'etat in Byzantine history.

If the Vandals joined with the Ostrogoth kingdom and quickly rebuilt their naval dominance the two would be pretty safe and very wealthy. If you wanted you could have a later intervention against the Franks to aid their Visigoth cousins seeing Frankish power largely driven from the Med basin.

I think that this would happen without a Byzantine attack on the Ostrogoths.

Difficult to say how much of a Gothic culture could survive since I think the vast majority of the population was still Italian and Roman culture still held in very high esteem. However a strong element could survive as a clear culture in the peninsula. [More difficult to see a continuous successor state given your talking about 1500 years in a pretty exposed area. However something should be possible].

OTL Lombardy could be Gothia, and some part of Spain could bear the same name. Also, the barbarian tribes that were left standing in the wake of the Justinian's Reconquest and its knock-on effect (thinking of the Lombard invasion and the rise of the Franks) largely created the crowns that Europe's monarchy system was based on. Different tribes mean different borders.

Another thing that I noticed was that Theodoric was very careful to make clear that he ruled Italy essentially as a vassal of the Byzantine Emperor, and the same is true of Visigoth King. They were Kings of their own tribe, but their position as rulers of the territory they were in was descended from Imperial authority. If there is no invasion of Italy by the Byzantines, then this would continue. If you leave the Goths in Italy and Spain, then I think that they will start to get involved in Byzantine politics, in their roles as Imperially designated rulers of their territories. So maybe a few generations later, for instance during the Arab invasions, a Gothic Emperor saves the battered East with the resources of the revived West.
 
Top