AH challange: make operation jubilee (aka raid on the Dieppe) work

mats

Banned
make op. jubilee work, what would be the response of the germans? would it become a fully fleged invasion after there was surprising succes?
 
make op. jubilee work, what would be the response of the germans? would it become a fully fleged invasion after there was surprising succes?
This would probably be a total disaster!

One reason that Dieppe happened was to show the US that 'land a bunch of guys on the beach and seize a harbour' wouldn't work.

If Dieppe 'succeeded', then the US would absolutely insist that the invasion of France happen in '43, without all the work that made Overlord successful.

While it's true that German defenses were weaker in '43 than in '44, the Allies were weaker yet.

I'm not saying that an Normandy invasion in '43 would necessarily fail. It would, however have a strong chance of failing, ESPECIALLY if Dieppe 'proved' that all the logistical innovations (massive numbers of landing craft, Mulberry harbours, PLUTO, hedge cutting tanks, etc., etc.) are necessary.

Even if the WAllies do get a foothold, the fight will be long and bloody and any advance would be MUCH slower than OTL.

A failure could mean the WAllies try elsewhere - like an invasion up through Greece. Which would mean the Soviets own most of Germany - and probably half of France.

My two cents worth.
 
make op. jubilee work, what would be the response of the germans? would it become a fully fleged invasion after there was surprising succes?

It's impossible as it's still not clear what the goals of operation Jubilee were. :p

It was too big a force for a raid and too small a force for an invasion.
There was absolutely no follow-up planned, so an invasion is out.
The British had just had a few raids which were successfull (in Norway) by small forces, so probably the thinking was that if a small raid was successfull a huge raid would be even more successfull.

First thing to do if you want to get (slightly) more successfull is landing part of the force on different beaches, use more naval support then a handfull of (heroic) small destroyers and use the paratroopers as originally planned.


See Neilland's "Dieppe Raid" for more.

One reason that Dieppe happened was to show the US that 'land a bunch of guys on the beach and seize a harbour' wouldn't work.

If Dieppe 'succeeded', then the US would absolutely insist that the invasion of France happen in '43, without all the work that made Overlord successful.

Although this is often given as a reason for Dieppe AFAIK the timeline alone indicates it is not correct.

Already before the Dieppe raid it was decided there wasn't going to be a invasion in France in '43.
 
make op. jubilee work, what would be the response of the germans? would it become a fully fleged invasion after there was surprising succes?

Can't say what it would take to make it work ("change every single decision made" might be a step in the right direction...), but no, it wouldn't become a full-fledged invasion. Dieppe was always intended to be a raid - the troops were supposed to stay about a day, IIRC, before making an orderly retreat. If they'd captured the port and accomplished all of their objectives easily it would have been a successful raid, which might have been repeated, and would have let to costly mistakes in the real invasion.
 
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