AH Chain mk. 1: The Election of 1948

Who will you elect in 1948?

  • Harry S. Truman (Democrat)

    Votes: 12 21.4%
  • Thomas E. Dewey (Republican)

    Votes: 20 35.7%
  • Strom Thurmond (Dixiecrat)

    Votes: 14 25.0%
  • Henry Wallace (Progressive)

    Votes: 10 17.9%

  • Total voters
    56
Yeah, things are going to scramble like mad.

Just to make sure 1948 America isn't extremely modern-day liberal if Dewey wins, what is Dewey's platform?
 

HueyLong

Banned
Here is my map for a scenario where Thurmond does better in the South and Wallace acts as a spoiler in California and Wisconsin. (The likely outcome of this election)

California, Ohio, Wisconsin and Idaho fall to Dewey (They were close in OTL) Georgia is Thurmond's sole gain.

This is an absolute best- I don't see anywhere else for Dewey to make a crack in Truman's campaign.......

The electoral count is as follows:

Dewey 255
Truman 223
Thurmond 53*

*Including 3 faithless electors. 1 from TN, NC and TX

There is no electoral majority in this scenario, but the control of the House by Republicans and Truman's lower vote total sway this in favor of Dewey.

Thoughts?

pe1948whatif.gif
 

HueyLong

Banned
Republican Platform of 1948

-Reduction of the public debt
-Federal aid to states for slum clearance and low-cost housing
-Extension of Social Security benefits
-A federal anti-lynching law
-Federal civil rights legislation
-Abolition of the poll tax
-A crackdown on domestic Communism*
-Recognition of the state of Israel
-International arms control "on basis of reliable disciplines against bad faith".

*Dewey was against this one.

Pretty liberal, for the time.

As said, much of it will cause some cringing in Republican circles- whether they should pounce on segregation or back off and try to gain the South.
 

HueyLong

Banned
Well, at least it ain't modern liberalism.

Anway, is all right to give Thurmond NC and FL?

Probably NC. I don't know about FL. Its demographics have always been weird in comparison to the rest of the South (and still are)

Hmm... we need to start brainstorming a POD.... maybe some more race controversies in the months leading up to the Dixiecrat split?
 
Yeah that sounds nice.

anyway, I have added up the current numbers, 40 votes have been casted.

If we have 50, we can have the no. of votes have the amount of states each candidate won.
 

HueyLong

Banned
Yeah that sounds nice.

anyway, I have added up the current numbers, 40 votes have been casted.

If we have 50, we can have the no. of votes have the amount of states each candidate won.

Erm.... no. Horribly skewed.

As said at the beginning, the vote totals will not count for much. They will weigh in on the discussion, but the winner by plurality will be the winner and it will be decided from there.

We have to keep some historical plausibility.... besides which, there were 48 states.
 
Oh crap I remember now, thanks.

I just hope that Bob Dole will be elected in this game some time. But we will have to wait and see.
 
Something interesting to consider would be the influence of families that are important in politics. Many of these political families would remain in the parties they support regardless of where that party lies on the political spectrum. So the Kennedys would support a conservative Democratic party, the Bushes a liberal Republican party, etc.
What do you think?
 
berry, I seriously have to doubt that.

I don't see Bush getting along well with Liberals and Kennedy getting along well with Conservatives.
 
berry, I seriously have to doubt that.

I don't see Bush getting along well with Liberals and Kennedy getting along well with Conservatives.
Most of the politicians of the 60s and beyond are either children or young men in 1948, young enough to change their politcal alignement. If Dewey won the 1948 election, then the New Deal coalition will certainly break down, with unionists and minorities moving to the Republicans. This would leave the Democrats with white southerners like Strom Thurmond (his third party bid was never a serious attempt at the White House, merely a move to force the election to the House of Representatives and gain concessions from Dewey and Truman), anti-Communists like Joe McCarthy, and New England old money like Joseph Kennedy, Sr. In other words, this would make the Democrats a very conservative party.
 
Thus making conservatives like Bush, Reagan, Dole, Robertson, etc. be Democrats.
Reagan and Robertson, yes (In fact, Reagan was originally a Democrat who became a Republican due to the Korean War).
I don't know enough about Dole's life to make a comment, but George H.W. Bush's father Prescott Bush was a Republican who held many views we would consider to be liberal, like support of planned parenthood and civil rights. Prescott Bush was also a staunch opponent of Joe McCarthy. His son would have just graduated from Yale and would have finished moving his family to Texas, though he would probably support the same party his father does. George W. Bush is only two in 1948, so he might be a completely differnet person by 2008.
 
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Dole is like 20 something right now, but didn't get into politics until like 1969 (when he first became a Senator), so he likely to be a Democrat ITTL, looks like the Democrats will be the Conservative ones.
 
Dole is like 20 something right now, but didn't get into politics until like 1969 (when he first became a Senator), so he likely to be a Democrat ITTL, looks like the Democrats will be the Conservative ones.
Maybe. It's ultimately up to HueyLong to decide who will end up in which party and why.
 

HueyLong

Banned
Maybe. It's ultimately up to HueyLong to decide who will end up in which party and why.

Much of it is going to be collaborative effort, though I will have final say.

POLLING IS CLOSED.

Dewey is the winner.

I will post the electoral map of 1948 and the discussion thread at a more decent hour tomorrow.
 
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