Agha Mohammad Khan Qajar Not Assassinated

What if Agha Mohammad, the Great Qajar Conquerer was not assassinated in 1797?

They say he was assassinated because on his way to combat the Russians in Georgia for a third campaign when he realized no Russian aid would come. As he was trying to sleep before continuing the campaign, two servants of him (one Georgian) were causing a lot of noise while arguing, and so he said they would be executed. Sadeq Khan, an Emir trusted by the Khan protested, he only agreed to postpone the execution by 24 hours, as it was the Islamic holy day. They were told to continue their jobs as servants but decided to assassinate the man who would kill them. While the Shah was sleeping, the two, including a fellow servant friend, killed the Shah in his sleep, and stole all the jewels in his chamber, and fled the scene.

So let's say, they never cause a disturbance, and the Khan can sleep peacefully, and he doesn't die.

What would he have done if he was not killed? How long will he have ruled? And How does Qajar history change from this? And what is his stance on Napoleon's French courts to Persia?
 
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Sidenote: Does anyone know any scholarly sources, books, or sources I could use to learn more about Agha Mohammad Khan Qajar? If so, please show me.

Don’t know much about the man, so I can’t offer much speculation but as to sources, the Oxford and Cambridge series’ on Iranian History will at least offer some info on him. If I were you I’d check the “Bibliography” section at the bottom of his Wikipedia page, as they cite sources of information on him there. Also, check out his Encyclopedia Iranica page if you haven’t already.
 
Don’t know much about the man, so I can’t offer much speculation but as to sources, the Oxford and Cambridge series’ on Iranian History will at least offer some info on him. If I were you I’d check the “Bibliography” section at the bottom of his Wikipedia page, as they cite sources of information on him there. Also, check out his Encyclopedia Iranica page if you haven’t already.

I've checked out every single of the sources I could find, from Iranica, to Volume 7. I have a pdf of it if you'd like to see it. I also do have a list of all Qajar Shah's listed in the Iranian Oxford handout. I'm just very interested in Qajar History, and 1800s Persia, as that to me is one of the most understudied Persian studies.
 
I've checked out every single of the sources I could find, from Iranica, to Volume 7. I have a pdf of it if you'd like to see it. I also do have a list of all Qajar Shah's listed in the Iranian Oxford handout. I'm just very interested in Qajar History, and 1800s Persia, as that to me is one of the most understudied Persian studies.

I’ve always found Persian history to be quite interesting, I’m more of a Sassanid-Buyid-Seljuq guy myself but I’ll definitely have to check out the Qajar era since my knowledge of it is minimal.
 
Qajar Persia will have a better chance to hold the Caucasus without the Russians in Georgia. But I don't think Russia will give up the region for good. Without Georgia the Russia conquest might be delayed post-Napoleon. In this case around 1820s to 1830s for a new war with Russia.
 
Qajar Persia will have a better chance to hold the Caucasus without the Russians in Georgia. But I don't think Russia will give up the region for good. Without Georgia the Russia conquest might be delayed post-Napoleon. In this case around 1820s to 1830s for a new war with Russia.

Oh definitely. With the Russian withdrawal, the Agha will do the third Caucasus campaign, and annihilate the Georgians again. He'll probably take more of Azerbaijan like Baku. Although Paul I's politics will most likely actually be more heavily focused on the Caucasus, as with him still a threat, the Caucasian border is never safe. He will most likely live through the entire Napoleonic wars, placing his reign in a very important sphere of influence. He will most likely ally with France as a way to continue curb stomping the Russians. With the Ottomans in turmoil, they can't and didn't intervene in the Iranian reunification. I believe during the Wahhabi sack of Karbala, Agha Mohammad Khan would march his southern army to Karbala, and take it from both Wahhabi, and Ottoman hands, legitimizing the Qajar rule in the Shia world.

After defeating the Georgians, he most likely will conquer Herat, as he was actually planning an attack on the Afghans before the 1796 Russian Expedition to Persia began.

Agha Mohammad Khan surviving would lead to a very active and important role of Persia in the Napoleonic Wars. I suggest he will most likely wish for more guns, and ESPECIALLY artillery and cannons, things the Agha specifically was worried about from the Russians.
 
Oh definitely. With the Russian withdrawal, the Agha will do the third Caucasus campaign, and annihilate the Georgians again. He'll probably take more of Azerbaijan like Baku. Although Paul I's politics will most likely actually be more heavily focused on the Caucasus, as with him still a threat, the Caucasian border is never safe. He will most likely live through the entire Napoleonic wars, placing his reign in a very important sphere of influence. He will most likely ally with France as a way to continue curb stomping the Russians. With the Ottomans in turmoil, they can't and didn't intervene in the Iranian reunification. I believe during the Wahhabi sack of Karbala, Agha Mohammad Khan would march his southern army to Karbala, and take it from both Wahhabi, and Ottoman hands, legitimizing the Qajar rule in the Shia world.

After defeating the Georgians, he most likely will conquer Herat, as he was actually planning an attack on the Afghans before the 1796 Russian Expedition to Persia began.

Agha Mohammad Khan surviving would lead to a very active and important role of Persia in the Napoleonic Wars. I suggest he will most likely wish for more guns, and ESPECIALLY artillery and cannons, things the Agha specifically was worried about from the Russians.

There are quite some butterflies though. With Agha Mohammed taking Georgia or vassalising it, the Ottomans are likely less frightened of Russian threats and thus less inclined to declare war on them in 1806. No war means less to no turmoil. Agha Mohammed cannot intervene in Iraq and Al Haasa without Ottoman consent or war. As you said, if Paul I is interested in the Caucasus the Russo-Turkish Alliance may live on longer. But to be honest, I doubt the interesr of Czar Paul I in the Caucasus. In OTL he ordered the expedition to Persia to return. If the butterflies do not affect his assassination there won't be a Caucasus campaign unless the Persians or Ottomans are stupid enough to start the war. Paul I and/or Alexander I still would keep an eye on Europe.

Personally I think Agha Mohammed would secure Azerbaijan as much as possible and maybe with a bit of luck Easter Georgia as well. Like Fath Ali there would be an offer to help against the Wahabi's but not more and definitely no war.
 
There are quite some butterflies though. With Agha Mohammed taking Georgia or vassalising it, the Ottomans are likely less frightened of Russian threats and thus less inclined to declare war on them in 1806. No war means less to no turmoil. Agha Mohammed cannot intervene in Iraq and Al Haasa without Ottoman consent or war. As you said, if Paul I is interested in the Caucasus the Russo-Turkish Alliance may live on longer. But to be honest, I doubt the interesr of Czar Paul I in the Caucasus. In OTL he ordered the expedition to Persia to return. If the butterflies do not affect his assassination there won't be a Caucasus campaign unless the Persians or Ottomans are stupid enough to start the war. Paul I and/or Alexander I still would keep an eye on Europe.

Personally I think Agha Mohammed would secure Azerbaijan as much as possible and maybe with a bit of luck Easter Georgia as well. Like Fath Ali there would be an offer to help against the Wahabi's but not more and definitely no war.

While the Russo-Turkish war at the time was a major Ottoman turmoil point, it is not the only one they have considering the Jannisary conflict, and recent turmoil years ago.

Yes Agha Mohammad taking Karbala would be an act of war, but I definitely see Agha Mohammad wanting Karbala under its control, and with his military knowledge, care, and numbers, he could potentially do it.

His withdrawal from the campaign wasn’t really a lack of interest, but that the expedition was bogging down, and was poorly equipped to free Georgia.

Paul I would still be assasinated, however, Alexander I will definitely have a Persian Expedition in mind when the war with Napoleon is over, as Persia could potentially ally with Napoleon to advance in the Caucasus and Caspian.

Agha Mohammad would definitely be able to take eastern Georgia. Considering the sack of Tiflis, and massacres in Georgia and Azerbajian against Christians and Muslims alike, they would ask for peace to end the violence.

I think Agha Mohammad would ask, but could justify declaring war, or sending help regardless of the Ottomans decline.
 
While the Russo-Turkish war at the time was a major Ottoman turmoil point, it is not the only one they have considering the Jannisary conflict, and recent turmoil years ago.

Yes Agha Mohammad taking Karbala would be an act of war, but I definitely see Agha Mohammad wanting Karbala under its control, and with his military knowledge, care, and numbers, he could potentially do it.

His withdrawal from the campaign wasn’t really a lack of interest, but that the expedition was bogging down, and was poorly equipped to free Georgia.

Paul I would still be assasinated, however, Alexander I will definitely have a Persian Expedition in mind when the war with Napoleon is over, as Persia could potentially ally with Napoleon to advance in the Caucasus and Caspian.

Agha Mohammad would definitely be able to take eastern Georgia. Considering the sack of Tiflis, and massacres in Georgia and Azerbajian against Christians and Muslims alike, they would ask for peace to end the violence.

I think Agha Mohammad would ask, but could justify declaring war, or sending help regardless of the Ottomans decline.

Agha Mohammed is a smart guy considering how he conquered Iran and Azerbaijan from the Zands, Afshars and other locals. Invading Iraq is totally different than invading small Khanates in Azerbaijan. If Paul I truelly has interests in the Caucasus let alone Alexander I, the Caucasus might be divided among the Russians and Ottomans. And that is if Agha Mohammed goes for Karbala anyway.

If the Ottomans and Russians are at war then it is likely he will intervene in Iraq and considering the timing he might have to fight Mehmed Ali Pasha there which would be... interesting... :)
 
Agha Mohammed is a smart guy considering how he conquered Iran and Azerbaijan from the Zands, Afshars and other locals. Invading Iraq is totally different than invading small Khanates in Azerbaijan. If Paul I truelly has interests in the Caucasus let alone Alexander I, the Caucasus might be divided among the Russians and Ottomans. And that is if Agha Mohammed goes for Karbala anyway.

If the Ottomans and Russians are at war then it is likely he will intervene in Iraq and considering the timing he might have to fight Mehmed Ali Pasha there which would be... interesting... :)

Invading Iraq would be different then those experiences, going against a far more coherent army, however fighting between the Persians and Ottomans would be a far more grounded fight, and if Persia invades first, secures Karbala, sets up a strong defense near the city's area, I doubt the corrupt Jannisaries will be able to do much to counter the Persians, especially with many Ottoman soldiers rebounding from the French campaign.

The Ottomans and Russians will most likely go to war, as tensions for the war started in the Danubian Principalities, meaning conflict in the Caucasus would also likely come, mainly being a Persia would be having favorable relations with Napoleon, attacking Russia to help with his war in Europe.
 
Qajar Persia will have a better chance to hold the Caucasus without the Russians in Georgia. But I don't think Russia will give up the region for good. Without Georgia the Russia conquest might be delayed post-Napoleon. In this case around 1820s to 1830s for a new war with Russia.

But at that time Russia did not have a serious interest in Georgia or in Caucasus in general: Catherine II pretty much ignored the fact that Georgia (or rather Kingdom of Imeretia, part of Georgia controlled by Russian ally/vassal) was taken back by the Persians because she had different priorities and because the whole region was of a very limited economic or any other value.

OTOH, for the Russian army of that or later period conquest of the Persian territories was much more logistical than military issue. Persian Expedition of 1796 led by inexperienced 24-years old Valerian Zubov within 2 months overrun most of Azerbaijan and was stopped only by Catherine's death.

As for the Napoleonic factor, in OTL Russian - Persian War of 1804 - 1813 continued during the Napoleonic wars and even in 1812 none of the troops involved had been recalled to the main theater. Never more than 10,000 had been committed on the Russian side and still they managed to defeat Persians (with a ration allegedly 1:5) and make a favorable Peace of Guilstan by which they got Daghestan, eastern Georgia, most of Azerbaijan, and parts of northern Armenia.
 
But at that time Russia did not have a serious interest in Georgia or in Caucasus in general: Catherine II pretty much ignored the fact that Georgia (or rather Kingdom of Imeretia, part of Georgia controlled by Russian ally/vassal) was taken back by the Persians because she had different priorities and because the whole region was of a very limited economic or any other value.

OTOH, for the Russian army of that or later period conquest of the Persian territories was much more logistical than military issue. Persian Expedition of 1796 led by inexperienced 24-years old Valerian Zubov within 2 months overrun most of Azerbaijan and was stopped only by Catherine's death.

As for the Napoleonic factor, in OTL Russian - Persian War of 1804 - 1813 continued during the Napoleonic wars and even in 1812 none of the troops involved had been recalled to the main theater. Never more than 10,000 had been committed on the Russian side and still they managed to defeat Persians (with a ration allegedly 1:5) and make a favorable Peace of Guilstan by which they got Daghestan, eastern Georgia, most of Azerbaijan, and parts of northern Armenia.


One of the reasons proposed as to why Catherine didn't respond was because Ivan Gudovich underestimated the power of the Persian army and that he viewed that the Russian guarantee of Georgian protection enough would deter the Persians.

Zubov overran most of Azerbaijan, that is true, however, his expedition was a pretty substantial failure on the logistics side. He said he would reach Esfahan by September, but past September, he made nowhere close that far, and he got bogged down repeatedly. Not only that, but he had resistance from local Muslim rulers. Three khans planned to assassinate him, and when he found out and asked to reconsider, only 2 dropped out on the deal, and the other one fought for a good amount of time. Derbent, on the other hand, was a two-month-long siege from the Russians, and a battle they mainly won due to moral on the other side winding down. Yeveren was not going to be captured by Russia, mainly because the expedition was far too under-equipped to win, and it would provoke the Ottomans.

The main difference in that conflict to one like this is that Georgia remains under Persian rule and is not annexed. Agha Mohammad Khan was in many cases at the time, a better Shah because he had more experience. No one expected his assassination, and Fath Ali Shah was only 25 when he died, and was not hard trained.
 
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