I agree with the whole idea that the POD is the cutoff date for conceptions of OTL figures. However, nothing is stopping a similar (but not identical) person from being born, if they have the same parents. Many families, especially dynasties, love using the same names over and over.
I agree with the whole idea that the POD is the cutoff date for conceptions of OTL figures. However, nothing is stopping a similar (but not identical) person from being born, if they have the same parents. Many families, especially dynasties, love using the same names over and over.
butterflies properly mean only those effects where we can't actually trace the cause-and-effect relationship from the POD. They are the changes that happen either because history is re-rolling the dice and might get a different number than in OTL, or else they are cause-and-effect but chaotic and probably untraceable. I think that's how Sam is using it.
This forum sometimes uses butterflies to simply mean the cascade of consequences that a POD causes, most of them traceable. In that sense, any decent alt-history, whether its literary or explorative, has to take account of butterflies. But Sam is using the term more narrowly.
Does that reseeding expand faster than the speed of light?
If in OTL a gamble in New York rolled a 3 & 4 at 10:01:01
and then there is a POD in Berlin at 10:01:00 that will mean that the dice roll is changed (it may end up being the same but that is just Random)?
My take on the "Butterfly effect," well I guess Im pretty liberal in that matter also...
Let me quote myself on this subject:
Btw, there are several other threads about this subject floating around...![]()
Try not to speak with such an authoritive tone about a subject your text reveals you have quite a weak grasp off. A sperm on average survives at most a week after maturity (and the sheer billion to one odds make the one that made it OTL hitting the egg almost nil), and the egg up for bat changes every month. The person born in the alternate time line even days seperate from you will not be you, they will be a sibling (possibly one of the opposite sex), with anything from 50-100% homology of their genetic inheritance.
Unless you can honestly say your siblings are indentical to you in every respect and have taken up the same career path, I think you should see the problem. Why should the alt version of Reagan get into office when his OTL brother became an advertising executive.
And thats before we get into the shit you write about genetic predispositions to such subtle factors as gun-manufacture and free market ideals. GENETICS DOES NOT WORK THAT WAY.
Sam,
I agree to your initial posting almost completely and I am grateful that you made this point, in a comprehensive and stringent way I couldn't have done it.
Let me add a little thought: To me it doesn't make sense to choose one single scenario of possibilites as a TL, and claim everything would be a consequence of the PoD - and claim you know that for sure.
However, I think it makes a TL more lively if you vary small, perhaps even irrelevant details.
This is not only entertaining, but it illustrates the range of possibilites; moreover, it is a fair little reminder that "this is not real history".
I tried to cover the range of possibilities once by starting a time tree rather than a TL. This emphasizes the "case study" nature of this piece of work. But of course I couldn't include all possible states of the world, but I think my selection gives a good impression of what I thought was plausible.
There are two other reasons why I like little random changes in a TL:
It avoids the complete ignorance of interference. Keeping everything else the same can create absurd situations. Of course, if we are doing a serious case study this should not go as far as changing everything for the author's taste. If the TL is written for the sake of the story, however, this is also fine.
Finally, there might be several conflicts in the world with uncertain outcome. If your PoD is to change the outcome of one, and if the two are not linked in a clear and obvious way, then it makes sense to (ideally) consider two cases, according to the outcomes of the other conflict. I suppose this is what you mean by your "case study" type of AH.
As for the time tree theory of alternate history, and my general interest in alternate history, it comes from the fact that I believe in alternate history.
To sum up, I can find several reasons to depart from the ceteris paribus method.
However, we shouldn't put that down to butterflies, as we can't control them and they can't defend against the blame. We should just say "I want it that way."
I think you could explore the effects of specific butterfly after the PoD though.I agree with Sam all the way.
One point of order:
butterflies properly mean only those effects where we can't actually trace the cause-and-effect relationship from the POD. They are the changes that happen either because history is re-rolling the dice and might get a different number than in OTL, or else they are cause-and-effect but chaotic and probably untraceable. I think that's how Sam is using it.
This forum sometimes uses butterflies to simply mean the cascade of consequences that a POD causes, most of them traceable. In that sense, any decent alt-history, whether its literary or explorative, has to take account of butterflies. But Sam is using the term more narrowly.
If you're doing explorative alt-history, I have no problem with OTL historical figures being born instead of siblings with similar names or whatnot. In effect, you are saying that where OTL history rolled the dice, you are keeping the rolls the same to better explore the *necessary* effects of your POD.