Against our Expections: Russian Victory in the Russo-Japanese War

Thucydides

Against our Expectations

It was entirely against our expectations that we have unhappily come to open hostilities with Russia.
Japanese Proclamation of War, February 10, 1904

I

“Only vaulting ambition, which o’erleaps itself/and falls upon the other.”

Excerpt from “Distant Guns – The Russo-Japanese War” by B. Tuchman Random House Publishing, 1968

The Russo-Japanese War was one of the defining events of the 20th Century. It represented, in a way, the triumph of the old order. It proved that European nations still ruled the world, and with reason. The spectacular defeat of Japan at the hands of a seemingly ailing empire did not shock the world; it merely reaffirmed pre-conceived notions about European superiority.

Excerpt from “The Young Buck – Japan 1865-1905” by J. Calloway, Norton Publishing, 1990

Japan had seemingly gained the trust of the Europeans. The astonishing revival of the formerly medieval kingdom at the hands of the Meji had shocked the world. Japan had even participated in the suppression of the Boxer Rebellion with other European nations and the United States. Keep in mind this even was caused primarily by the killing of European missionaries at the hands of the boxers. Japan’s crushing victory over China in the 1890s had shown the world that Japan’s European styled military forces could do more than stand their own against the rest of Asia.

The involvement of Japan in the suppression of the Boxer Rebellion led to more harm than good however. Despite having shown the Great Powers that Japan could stand among them they seemed to turn a blind eye to Russian Expansionism in Manchuria. The Japanese, needless to say, were angry…

… Japan’s conduct in the Russo-Japanese War has been criticized by diplomats and military strategists alike. The Japanese cult of attack has been widely blamed for Japan’s failure on land, and the lack of such initiative at sea has been seen as leaving the door open for Russian Success. Over-reliance on massed infantry assaults caused Japan horrific casualties in attacks along heavily fortified Russian positions on the Yalu River. Japanese leaders were not content to sit on their hands, and this ultimately led to their defeat.

At sea Japan had the opposite problem. Indecisiveness during the initial strike at Port Arthur prevented Japan from dealing any real damage to the Russian fleet. Blessed by an extremely gifted admiral in Togo Heihachiro the Japanese did not have the economic power to back up a prolonged sea campaign. By the time Admiral Stepan Makarov took command of the Russian fleet and resumed the offensive in May, 1904 the Japanese fleet had, realistically, only about six more months of fight left in it.

Excerpt from “Distant Guns – The Russo-Japanese War” by B. Tuchman, Random House Publishing, 1968

The opening blow of the war was struck hard and fast, and yet failed to accomplish very much. Japanese Admiral Togo Heihachiro sought to cripple the Russian fleet at Port Arthur, thus leaving the seaways between Korea and Japan free from Russian raiding. His surprise attack was planned for February 9th, 1904, very early in the morning. Admiral Togo had not counted on the Russians being ready for him, and using the massive guns at Port Arthur to drive him away, the casualties on both sides were light, but the Japanese had failed. The Russians set in for a siege.
 

Thucydides

Thanks guys. Normally I'll put an update up every Monday night, but I'll put the second one up later tonight just to prompt discussion. That first one was really more of a teaser.
 

Thucydides

II

“A great army massing/crested helmets bristling for assault”

Excerpt from “Out East – A Soldier’s Memoir” by V. Stossel, Memuary Press, 1912

I will remember the night of May 1st for the rest of my life. The enemy lay upon us with such ferocity that I was genuinely contemplating how I would go about surrendering to them before I had even seen a Japanese soldier. Crouching in the trenches made for a terrible pastime and we could hear the enemy draw nearer, their artillery had already found us. Then came the order.

“Back!” was heard throughout the lines, and we withdrew to the hills. With the enemy at our heals and the whole battlefield enveloped in fog it made for quite the terrible morning. As soon as we had reached the hills we were ordered to dig more trenches, always an exciting prospect. I stood with my comrades in arms as we fought for our lives.

Suddenly, at about eight thirty, our own artillery began to open up. By this point we were fairly heavily dug in, and despite the terrible smell of battle that had managed to stick itself in my nose I found room in myself to feel joy. The Japanese mounted another assault. The tiny little dots of men attempting to cross the river below us would have been almost comical had it not been a matter of life and death. The Japanese died in droves and were repulsed fairly handily.

The battle of the Yalu was my first engagement, and after the victory I felt a patriotic joy that only one of such naivety as I could experience.

Excerpt from “Distant Guns – The Russo-Japanese War” by B. Tuchman, Random House Publishing, 1968

The war began in earnest on the night of May 1st, 1904. The Japanese Army in Korea had been massing for an assault for some time now, but had been waiting for favorable weather to cross the Yalu. As it turned out there is really no such thing as favorable weather when one is attempting to cross a river towards a fortified enemy position.

The Japanese relied on massed infantry assaults backed up by artillery bombardment. This type of warfare was the old European way, the tactics were practically Napoleonic and would not achieve victory in the 20th Century. Ironically it was the Russian’s relative lack of available manpower that allowed them to excel in the early battles along the Yalu. Understanding that Russia needed to preserve its army until reinforcements arrived high command gave explicit orders to stay on the defensive, and to dig in for a prolonged stay on the Yalu.

The initial Russian strategy, discounted by many and altogether ignored by some, yielded victory after victory during the summer and fall of 1904. By the time winter set in and the Japanese halted their offensives Russian reinforcements were arriving, and preparations were made to take Korea from Japan.

Excerpt from “Naval Warfare in the Age of Steam: War at Sea 1862-1920” by B. Ireland, Howell, 1999

The Russo-Japanese War, particularly at sea, is usually discounted as a war of waiting, sieges, and disease, a rather boring affair much like the Crimean War long before it. This could not be further from the truth. It is not arbitrary that there are several large monuments dedicated to Admiral Stepan Makarov all over Russia, for it was he that truly won the war for the Russians.

After his arrival at Port Arthur Makarov immediately took the offensive, ordering the Russian fleet out of port on April 10th. Makarov startled Togo with the rapidity of his movements (having previously scouted for mines) and moved towards the Japanese in a scattered line at almost 14 knots. Togo’s ships, which had been in a disorganized and rough blockade formation, quickly attempted to move further out to sea. Makarov’s force was superior numerically and gave chase immediately at the cost of destroying their formation.

Once further out to sea Togo reversed course and charged the Russian fleet. Attempting a maneuver similar to Nelson’s at Trafalgar did not fair as well with the new battleships participating in the battle. The Russian ships opened fire at six miles, scoring several hits on the leading two ships (Mikasa and Fuji) and eventually sinking Fuji. The Japanese fleet sounded retreat after the sinking of the Fuji and the armored cruiser Nisshin. The Russians had broken out, and now the war had really begun.
 

anon_user

Interesting concept - I'm looking forward to where it goes.
A few points:
1) Cutoff of 'Naval Warfare in the Age of Steam' is 1920 - is that the end of TTL's First World War?
2) It strikes me as a bit odd to have "large monuments" to Makarov surviving all the way to 1999.
3) I notice that you didn't mention the night-time destroyer attack on 2/8/1904 - does this not happen, does it get delayed, do the destroyers do worse?
4) How does Togo end up with a good reputation, given the relative failure of his ambush and attempted blockade?

I'm hoping to see Russian and Japanese postwar developments, among other things.
 

Thucydides

anon_user said:
Interesting concept - I'm looking forward to where it goes.
A few points:
1) Cutoff of 'Naval Warfare in the Age of Steam' is 1920 - is that the end of TTL's First World War?
2) It strikes me as a bit odd to have "large monuments" to Makarov surviving all the way to 1999.
3) I notice that you didn't mention the night-time destroyer attack on 2/8/1904 - does this not happen, does it get delayed, do the destroyers do worse?
4) How does Togo end up with a good reputation, given the relative failure of his ambush and attempted blockade?

I'm hoping to see Russian and Japanese postwar developments, among other things.
Click to expand...

Thanks for your interest! In answer to your questions.

1) If there is a first world war...
2) Not entirely sure why that doesn't make sense.
3) Yeah it doesn't happen ITTL.
4) Not to give anything away but he ends up as sort of a martyr to the cause of Japan, much like Makarov did for the Russians IOTL. Togo dies fairly early in the decisive engagement of the war and there is a lot of sentiment in Japan (much as there was in Russia about Makarov) that if he had survived he would have turned around the battle and kept the war going.

Also just a little fun-fact. Isoroku Yamamoto (then known as Isoroku Takano), who led the IJN in the Pacific theater of WW2 until his death in 1943, was on aboard the Japanese cruiser Nisshin during the battle of Port Arthur. The Nisshin was destroyed in the last update, along with Yamamoto.
 

anon_user

1) To be fair, it could also imply that the age of steam (with regards to naval warfare) ends in 1920, for some reason, or even that the author just wanted to only cover up to 1920. Still, it seems possible that there's some very convenient end point around then, and a war (or perhaps a naval arms limitation treaty?) seems like a good endpoint.

2) Basically, I think it doesn't make much sense because I would've figured the monuments would've been taken down, or that not that many (and none that were particularly large) were put up... but it's certainly plausible.

3) Why didn't the destroyer attack go through? Disputes with high command? Bad weather? Something else?

4) Incidentally, who is J. Calloway (the author of The Young Buck that cites Togo as being brilliant)? Is that a real person, like how I assume B. Tuchman is Barbara Tuchman?
 

Thucydides

anon_user said:
1) To be fair, it could also imply that the age of steam (with regards to naval warfare) ends in 1920, for some reason, or even that the author just wanted to only cover up to 1920. Still, it seems possible that there's some very convenient end point around then, and a war (or perhaps a naval arms limitation treaty?) seems like a good endpoint.

2) Basically, I think it doesn't make much sense because I would've figured the monuments would've been taken down, or that not that many (and none that were particularly large) were put up... but it's certainly plausible.

3) Why didn't the destroyer attack go through? Disputes with high command? Bad weather? Something else?

4) Incidentally, who is J. Calloway (the author of The Young Buck that cites Togo as being brilliant)? Is that a real person, like how I assume B. Tuchman is Barbara Tuchman?
Click to expand...

We'll find out won't we :).

Well, maybe it was exaggerated in regards to the Russo-Japanese War, but Makarov will play an important role later on in the timeline as well.

Mostly bad weather, Togo decided not to launch it because of the fog that night, thinking that too many ships would be lost in the confusion and it wouldn't be worth it.

No J. Calloway is not a real person. Although of the people introduced thus far he is the only fictional author (there will be more). B. Ireland is Bernard Ireland who wrote Naval Warfare in the Age of Sail which is a similar book to his ITTL, concerning the Royal Navy from 1756-1815. It was lying on the floor next to me when I was writing it and it was the first name that came to mind.
 

Sumeragi

Banned
Checkmate113 said:
What don't you understand about them?
Click to expand...
If you have Togo charging headlong at the Russian fleet, it's on the verge of pure fantasy since that goes directly against the strategies that Togo had thought up before the war happened. Togo studied not only Nelson, but Yi Sun-sin's tactics, which make use of flank hits to concentrate fire on the opponent. This is why I'm asking you how the naval battle went: Depending on how you do it, the entire TL would have to be written.
 

Thucydides

Sumeragi said:
If you have Togo charging headlong at the Russian fleet, it's on the verge of pure fantasy since that goes directly against the strategies that Togo had thought up before the war happened. Togo studied not only Nelson, but Yi Sun-sin's tactics, which make use of flank hits to concentrate fire on the opponent. This is why I'm asking you how the naval battle went: Depending on how you do it, the entire TL would have to be written.
Click to expand...

Well in OTL during the battle of the Yellow Sea Togo did miscalculate his speed during the battle allowing the Russians to escape. ITTL the Togo is caught off guard, just like IOTL only Makarov has a the aggressive instinct to push that advantage. Perhaps I did word it a bit excessively. What I mean was that Togo pulls something similar to OTL Tsushima where he orders his ships to turn simultaneously to head off the Russian fleet. Obviously this doesn't work as well as it did IOTL because of the vastly different circumstances.
 
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