How would international relations would look like. How about domestic politics? Would countries like the BeNeLux, Denmark, and Norway respond to a powerful Germany and Soviet Union?
have they guaranteed Poland per historical?
The latecomers in that are the British. You need a POD before 1920 to prevent the French-Polish alliance. This would mean the French don't try to counterweight Germany from the East, and they choose not to do that from the very ready-set moment after WWI - which is suicidal for the French, counter their age-old foreign policy principles, and going to upturn the diplomatic history of the 1920s-30s.
On this note a subversive answer the the original prompt might be "France somehow keeps diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union warm, so Germany ends up fighting a 2 front war later on" though I'm not sure how plausible such an alliance would be.
The latecomers in that are the British. You need a POD before 1920 to prevent the French-Polish alliance. This would mean the French don't try to counterweight Germany from the East, and they choose not to do that from the very ready-set moment after WWI - which is suicidal for the French, counter their age-old foreign policy principles, and going to upturn the diplomatic history of the 1920s-30s.
Well, the French had a defense treaty and pretty close relations with Czechoslovakia, too - and yet, somehow, they managed to be talked into throwing the Czechs over the side.
I'm not at all convinced that the same couldn't happen if London decided to not to make Poland a casus belli.
have they guaranteed Poland per historical?
yes, meant from the OP it was not clear if the UK had made explicit guarantees per historical.The latecomers in that are the British. You need a POD before 1920 to prevent the French-Polish alliance.
What I was replying to was the question whether Poland had not been "guaranteed" by either Western country, and the point I was making was that for France not to have already "guaranteed" Poland (or more exactly, allied with) you need a pre-1920 POD. I wasn't claiming that France being allied with Poland means they'll never throw Poland under the German bus.
Now, could the French convince the Poles not to fight?
(edited, expanded)How would international relations would look like. How about domestic politics? Would countries like the BeNeLux, Denmark, and Norway respond to a powerful Germany and Soviet Union?
Not least in that the Poles aren't stupid, and in a scenario where they never have a French/British guarantee their best bet (at least in the short-term) may well look to sign on willingly with the Reich as a satellite nation/ally/'protectorate' for whatever good conditions they can get out of it...
The publics in those countries were demanding war after all the appeasement had failed
None of those polls were from August 1939 on the eve of war. In 1938 or even spring 1939 was different than summer 1939 when Hitler was agitating for war with Poland. Offering the guarantee to Poland doesn't really contradict anything the polling said either."Demanding war." While public opinion was starting to shift, I think that's an excessively strong reading of public sentiment in France and Britain in 1939, at least if available polling (See here also) and newspaper lines are anything to judge by. Distrust of Hitler had rapidly grown (especially after he occupied Bohemia and Moravia in March 1939), as had support for fast rearmament and resistance to further demands by Hitler; but that was all still short of cries for war. Consider, too, that Chamberlain also had to take account of Dominion attitudes as well in any policy he pursued.
Chamberlain and Daladier probably still had the maneuvering room to decline to offer any guarantees to Poland, and in turn to decline to go to war if and when Hitler invaded Poland. But this would have to be accompanied by accelerated rearmamant and a tougher diplomatic line by London and Paris.
None of those polls were from August 1939 on the eve of war.
Offering the guarantee to Poland doesn't really contradict anything the polling said either.