Aftermath of an Austrian victory at Sadowa

I want to clarify that I'm not too concerned as to how Austria achieves a victory at Sadowa, since a look at past discussions seems to indicate that it isn't ASB.

I'd like to know what the short-term results of such a battle are. Does an Austrian victory at Sadowa mean the end of the war? If not, what happens next?

In the medium-term, what affects does an Austrian victory have? Is a Grossdeutschland option still on the table, but with Austrian leadership? Perhaps one that leaves out Prussia is possible? I'll admit that my goal is to have an Austrian-dominated Germany by c. 1880 or 1890...how could this come about?
 
My history of this period is a little rusty, but an Austrian victory at Sadowa would eliminate the Army of the Elbe and the 1st Army, leaving only the 2nd Army as a viable Prussian force. The war can play itself out now with an Austrian victory. Prussia will be forced at gunpoint to renounce all treaties alliances etc within Germany proper, thus assuring informal Austrian domination and leadership of the German states. As an incidental sideshow, Austria will keep her italian provinces.

War with France is, however, almost inevitable now, Louis Napoleon is not going to accept an united Germany under Austrian leadership anymore than it did in OTL under Prussian . In a bizarre twist, France may well be joined by a resurgent Prussia and quite possibly Italy as well. Russia still rcovering from the Crimean War and mindful of Austrian fickleness will probably sit this one out and enjoy Austrian discomfort. The only possible ally left would be Great Britain, and tbh, I can't see GB supporting Austria, because of the traditional British policy of trying to prevent any ne power from dominating the European mainland.

As to how this would pan out, there are those on the board better qualified to comment than I, but, barring some significant reorganisations and modernisations, i'm not convinced of Austria's ability to fight all three powers simultaneously and win.
 
Austria and its allies wanted to dismember Prussia: Austria wanted most of Silesia, Saxony the areas lost in 1815, Württemberg Hohenzollern, Hannover parts of Westphalia and Bavaria parts of the Rhineland. And there's the Schleswig-Holstein question, of course.
 
I'll need to go and re-read some stuff, but I think Austria's dream scenario would be to the break Prussia (Silesia loomed large in the calculations) and reduce it to another Bavaria, which would then allow them to dominate a loose Germany and preserve it from foreign intervention as Metternich had intended in 1815. He had thought then that Prussia could be his loyal accomplice, but his dualistic system was tipped off balance by the industrial revolution, In the aftermath of 1848, Austria smacked down Prussia's kleindeutsch ambitions, but didn't break Prussia, which allowed Prussia's military-industrial supremacy to continue mounting.

But if, as I'm sure some military buffs will demonstrate, the Austrians did have another chance at ckecking this in 1866, I don't think some kind of big, loose Germany at all unlikely by 1900, coming about by economic integration and vague sentiment rather than swords being waved in the air in the Palace of Mirrors, and one might perhaps see some kind of resentful Prussia and a northeastern minibloc wondering off, becoming dependent on Russia, although this wouldn't be popular with the citizens, obviously.

But again, i must re-check sources.
 

Susano

Banned
War with France is, however, almost inevitable now, Louis Napoleon is not going to accept an united Germany under Austrian leadership anymore than it did in OTL under Prussian.
Austria didnt want to unite Germany, and formal Austrian dominance of the GC was officially enshrined by the Congress of Vienna. Thats not the problem. The problem is:

In a bizarre twist, France may well be joined by a resurgent Prussia and quite possibly Italy as well.
No bizzare twist about that. Nappy had planned to intervene on Prussian side, once it has been maueld by Austria. Problem was the Mauling happened the other way round. Nappy thought to appear as a mediator-in-force demanding of Austria to not dismantle Prussia - and in return France would gain the Rhine border from Prussia. After Königsgrätz that didnt work out IOTL, and its a main reason Bismarck had such a lenient peace with Austria: It had to come quickly, lest Nappy thinks of a new scheme.

Damnably, now we have Nappys scenario, so he can play mediator-in-force. However, Austria cannot very well just accept that, and ironically, neither can Prussia. Bismarck had played with fire before, that is German nationalism. Of coruse his credit with the German nationalists was all but soent when he moved to war with Austria, but nontheless... if either power sides with France, theyll be condemned in the public opinion of Germany. Depending on just how hamfisted Napoleon III acts, I could even see a white peace or almost white peace between Austria and Prussia to deal with France. The German Confederation gets restored yet another time after Prussia tore it apart (as IBC said, the first time was the aftermath of 1848), and things are returned to status quo ante, maybe with some minor territorial concessions of Prussia and its allies.

In the aftermath of 1848, Austria smacked down Prussia's kleindeutsch ambitions, but didn't break Prussia, which allowed Prussia's military-industrial supremacy to continue mounting.
Err, well, that woudl hardly have been possible. Prussia was in a position of strength back then after all, just not strong enough to prevail against both Austria and Russia...
 
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