Aftermath of a Argentinian victory in the falklands?

We have dozens of threads about how Argentina could have won the falklands war, even if pyrricaly, , so here something different

Let's say that Argentina won, what is the future for Argentina?
 
I'm pretty sure there are a dozen threads on this very topic too.

Without the humiliation of defeat I expect the junta will be in power a bit longer, but with their number one external threat to distract the masses now gone, maybe not too long. The seeds sown in the dirty war will eventually lead to their downfall. The delayed reckoning may mean that there will be far more violence this time round though, perhaps even a civil war,

The islands themselves will probably swiftly depopulate of Falklanders, mostly voluntarily whom got to Britain, Australia or Canada. There will be a few bitter enders who try to stay no matter what, but they will be quickly swamped by a heap of imported Argentine colonists. However as the economic situation worsens a lot of those Argentines will go back to mainland and the island's population will fall drastically, even with heavy subsidies from the mainland.
 
Could the UK and her supporters invoke sanctions against Argentina or have its assets frozen?
 
I'm pretty sure there are a dozen threads on this very topic too.

Without the humiliation of defeat I expect the junta will be in power a bit longer, but with their number one external threat to distract the masses now gone, maybe not too long. The seeds sown in the dirty war will eventually lead to their downfall. The delayed reckoning may mean that there will be far more violence this time round though, perhaps even a civil war,

The islands themselves will probably swiftly depopulate of Falklanders, mostly voluntarily whom got to Britain, Australia or Canada. There will be a few bitter enders who try to stay no matter what, but they will be quickly swamped by a heap of imported Argentine colonists. However as the economic situation worsens a lot of those Argentines will go back to mainland and the island's population will fall drastically, even with heavy subsidies from the mainland.

I can't improve on that.
 
That sounds probable.

Will a Falklands Liberatiin Front be brought a out?

I.... don't know what brought a out means :oops: english isn't my first language

If you want to know if a falkland liberation movement would be possible, I doubt, the argentinian dictatorship would simple crush it
 
That sounds probable.

Will a Falklands Liberatiin Front be brought a out?

More like a British Liberation Front fighting to end Argentine occupation of the British Isles. But really, maybe Britain is forced to leave HK earlier and some other countries like Spain get uppity about their disputes with Britain?
 
Some quick thoughts.

One potential impact might be to trigger a panic in Lisbon and London over Macau and Hong Kong. The Argentines were reportedly encouraged to attack the Falklands by the general quiet that attended India's capture of Goa in 1961.

Another impact might be to encourage the British to build up their military power, and especially their navy, considerably, particularly their carrier arm. There might also be downstream effects in Northern Ireland if the Army is expanded meaningfully.

Is there any retarding impact on development of close-in weapons systems for naval air defense if the thing does not become a shooting war?
 
I.... don't know what brought a out means :oops: english isn't my first language

If you want to know if a falkland liberation movement would be possible, I doubt, the argentinian dictatorship would simple crush it

Sorry, typing too fast on the phone. I meant to type about. My comment was not supposed to be serious. :)
 
A lot would depend on the manner of the victory.

If it arose because the invasion had been delayed until John Nott's defence review been put in place, and Britain's capability of retaking the islands had disappeared, that leads to one possible line.

If it arose because Operation Corporate failed dismally, which could have happened in a number of ways, that leads to another possible line.

A third possible line is if, for some reason, there isn't the political will to do anything about it. This could be because Kirkpatrick gets her way, and the USA basically backs Argentina over Britain, and tells Britain to accept the situation. That leads to another possible line.

In the first instance, British capability can be quickly restored, and we move to a situation where Corporate* goes in against much better prepared defences. However, Corporate* will also be better organised, rather than being quite such an ad hoc on-the-fly arrangement.

In the second instance, the British forces (myself included) are not merely not available, but have won for themselves the prize of a small corner of a foreign field. These resources are not easily replaced, and the experience has gone. British capability to try again, despite some of the more gung-ho suggestions I've seen kicking around in my time, is screwed big time.

In the third instance, British capability is unaffected, but the political consequences for NATO, for example, are immense.

So before one can give a convincing answer, one really has to decide how the victory was achieved.
 
The Argentinian military would be too busy shooting down all the flying pigs to enjoy the fruits of its glorious victory.
 
Could the UK and her supporters invoke sanctions against Argentina or have its assets frozen?
Well, presumably, that would be dealt in a cease-fire agreement/peace treaty.

Depending on how the victory was achieved, the Argentine Junta might decide to invade Chile for the lulz, which would be an unmitigated disaster.
 
Well, presumably, that would be dealt in a cease-fire agreement/peace treaty.

Depending on how the victory was achieved, the Argentine Junta might decide to invade Chile for the lulz, which would be an unmitigated disaster.

Quoting what someone else said

"They were insane, not dumb"

Argentina would already been exausted after taking the Falklands, and a victory in the invasion would give them just a small, momentaneous bust of popularity before the people began to riot asking for democracy
 
Well, presumably, that would be dealt in a cease-fire agreement/peace treaty.

Depending on how the victory was achieved, the Argentine Junta might decide to invade Chile for the lulz, which would be an unmitigated disaster.


Victory Disease ala Argentine Way. :biggrin:

Well that would certainly make the UK feel a little better.
 
Quoting what someone else said

"They were insane, not dumb"

Argentina would already been exausted after taking the Falklands, and a victory in the invasion would give them just a small, momentaneous bust of popularity before the people began to riot asking for democracy
Oh, no. They were literally criminally dumb enough to warrant the death penalty, but they got ten years instead and a presidential pardon way too soon.

It depends on how the victory is achieved. If it's achieved because @David Flin 's first or third scenarios, then the Argentine armed forces wouldn't have suffered casualties.

If it's a shooting war but Argentina gets incredibly lucky and wins by seriously damaging both carriers early on, then they wouldn't have suffered heavy casualties either.

Even if Argentina takes casualties, the important ones will be in the Air Force: The navy will cower in port, so it won't take serious losses. The army may take a thousand or two casualties between wounded and killed, but a war with Chile would easily cause casualties in the tens of thousands so, while not a drop in the bucket, it's not critical either. And given the limits on how many forces the army could deploy, all the armored divisions and most of the heavy artillery would be intact. It may be that a competent Argentine war effort means mountain troops get deployed to the islands and suffer casualties - that can be critical. As for the Air Force casualties, those are the most important, but IIRC the Chilenean Air Force was suffering from American sanctions (so was the Argentine, but to a far lesser degree) and was well behind the Argentine Air Force at the time. So even with fighter looses, the Junta might decide it had enough air power.
 
David Flin's comments were fascinating, thanks for writing this.

The bottom line is that either Thatcher or Galtiieri, whoever doesn't wind up with the islands, has to go. Whether the Tories go or the junta goes has big ramifications.

Bigger ramifications if the reason is the US government backing Argentina over the UK.
 
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