Aftermath if GB was defeated in WWII?

Andre27

Banned
The bit in red is ASB. See below.

The bit just in bold points out how pointless this is - you need a PoD that changes the very nature of the German state, almost certainly about as far back as 1890 or so, to the point that WWI would go differently and Hitler almost certainly never rise to power. A German state can invade a British state in the 20th century using naval power. Nobody argues against that (although it would still be hard, because resisted amphibious invasions always are) but the Third Reich cannot successfully invade the United Kingdom if they start a war in the 1930s/1940s. Sorry, but that's the end of it.

And even in this situation, without a POD that changes the makeup of the Royal Navy during the Dreadnought race, the Germans still lose because the Royal Navy destroys their supply lines within two weeks.

Not really. Scapa flow was attacked and if Germany had managed to win the BoB then the RN could have been forced to a location even further away from German airfields.

Neutralization of the RAF would endanger anti submarine patrols in the canal and north sea.

In essence the RN could be forced back to a position where it could not effectively intervene in operation Sealion.

This is the essence why air superiority was key to any German plans for the UK.

As i said in my OP there are some butterflies needed, but not to the point of ASB.
 

sharlin

Banned
At the time of the BoB the Luftwaffe had no weapons capable of hurting a battleship and no air launched torpedoes, the LW could damage any british ships heading south and reduce the numbers of cruisers and destroyers as they lacked the protection of a Battleship but killing the smaller ships won't matter one iota if just one R class Battleship managed to get close to the invasion beaches and started blazing away, or worse yet (for the Germans) amongst the convoy carrying troops across.
 

Andre27

Banned
At the time of the BoB the Luftwaffe had no weapons capable of hurting a battleship and no air launched torpedoes, the LW could damage any british ships heading south and reduce the numbers of cruisers and destroyers as they lacked the protection of a Battleship but killing the smaller ships won't matter one iota if just one R class Battleship managed to get close to the invasion beaches and started blazing away, or worse yet (for the Germans) amongst the convoy carrying troops across.

Air dropped mines and destroying the facilities can cripple a fleet just the same as sinking ships.

Also the Ju-88 was a serious threat to any allied ship and if the Royal Navy wanted to go at the invasion beaches they would come in range of the Ju-87 Stuka as well. Without air cover the RN would get wrecked.

Not going on a RN bash or German wank, but anyone who claims that the RN could repel an invasion without air cover must have skipped a few chapters in aerial warfare.
 
Well, just going on the experiences of Germans trying to stop Royal Navy operations anywhere they never succeeded. They didn't prevent success of Dynamo, they didn't prevent evacuation of Crete, they didn't prevent RN operations in and around Norway. In all aforementioned cases, in spite of determined German intent to prevent RN from executing operations, they did not succeed. Yes, they did manage to sink an odd ship, here and there, but not to prevent the Royal Navy from executing their intended operations. It is hard to believe it would be any different in case of Sealion. Anything that British could get to sail would sortie to intercept invasion.

And in all probability, a destroyer or two in addition to a few waves would suffice to sink most of the barges. At least those that did not sink of their own accord.

Plus, it is certainly beyond physical capability of LW to totally eliminate RAF from the equation. Should losses prevent RAF from effectively engaging LW over southern England they would retreat to Northern England. They would return to interfere with Sealion if Germans were foolish enough to try it.
 

Andre27

Banned
Well, just going on the experiences of Germans trying to stop Royal Navy operations anywhere they never succeeded. They didn't prevent success of Dynamo, they didn't prevent evacuation of Crete, they didn't prevent RN operations in and around Norway. In all aforementioned cases, in spite of determined German intent to prevent RN from executing operations, they did not succeed. Yes, they did manage to sink an odd ship, here and there, but not to prevent the Royal Navy from executing their intended operations. It is hard to believe it would be any different in case of Sealion. Anything that British could get to sail would sortie to intercept invasion.

And in all probability, a destroyer or two in addition to a few waves would suffice to sink most of the barges. At least those that did not sink of their own accord.

Plus, it is certainly beyond physical capability of LW to totally eliminate RAF from the equation. Should losses prevent RAF from effectively engaging LW over southern England they would retreat to Northern England. They would return to interfere with Sealion if Germans were foolish enough to try it.

And the common nominator in all the examples you mentioned is that they didn't have full air superiority or sufficient assets in the area.

If Germany wins BoB then they'll have both. Germany air cover = Massive Royal navy exploration of bottom of the canal/north sea.

Winning the BoB Germany can dismantle British radar, damage both RN vessels and installations, deny RAF + coastal command anti submarine patrols and so forth. The butterflies to allow Germany to win the BoB are not large, but the implications of German air superiority over the North Sea, Canal and the UK is enormous.

Ranging from disrupting British industry, military build-up, extensive photo recon, restricting movement Royal Navy and so forth.

It's not like land warfare where a tie is enough.
 
And the common nominator in all the examples you mentioned is that they didn't have full air superiority or sufficient assets in the area.

If Germany wins BoB then they'll have both. Germany air cover = Massive Royal navy exploration of bottom of the canal/north sea.

One thing that is overlooked in your assessment of Germany winning the BoB, is that it would in all likelihood have been a pyrrhic victory. After sustaining high losses in its "victory", it may very well be in no position to offer adequate support for any offensive endeavors such as comprehensively attacking or threatening British naval assets let alone supporting the less likely unmentionable scenarios.
 
And the common nominator in all the examples you mentioned is that they didn't have full air superiority or sufficient assets in the area.

And how long could that state of affairs last if RAF does what they have planned to do in event they were about to lose the battle over Southeastern England? Namely, retreat to north, beyond German range, recuperate and engage LW as it attempts to cover the approach of thousands BARGES lumbering at 3-4 knots for 48 hours with little or no naval escort. Notice that period of 48 hours leaves most probably two night intervals during which RN navy can engage said barges without fear of LW intervention. Which I doubt would be efficient even during day time. And it is enough for a flotilla of destroyers to make short work of the barges. Their seaworthiness was almost non-existent.
 

Andre27

Banned
One thing that is overlooked in your assessment of Germany winning the BoB, is that it would in all likelihood have been a pyrrhic victory. After sustaining high losses in its "victory", it may very well be in no position to offer adequate support for any offensive endeavors such as comprehensively attacking or threatening British naval assets let alone supporting the less likely unmentionable scenarios.

I never said it'd be a walk in the park, but once the RAF is broken the UK will grow weaker from the destruction of it's civilian & military infrastructure while Nazi Germany had a lot more resources to recover from the losses.

Air Superiority is the first step needed for invasion. It's the step which is needed to destroy the support facilities for the British military.

The question is "Does Britain have resources left after continued onslaught by the Luftwaffe to counter an invasion". The UK was almost certain they couldn't hold a German invasion if they lost air superiority so it baffles me why so many people here believe otherwise.
 
I never said it'd be a walk in the park, but once the RAF is broken the UK will grow weaker from the destruction of it's civilian & military infrastructure while Nazi Germany had a lot more resources to recover from the losses.

Air Superiority is the first step needed for invasion. It's the step which is needed to destroy the support facilities for the British military.

The question is "Does Britain have resources left after continued onslaught by the Luftwaffe to counter an invasion". The UK was almost certain they couldn't hold a German invasion if they lost air superiority so it baffles me why so many people here believe otherwise.

Sorry, you really should look through the myriad threads on this site on this very subject. This is simply a replication of effort...
 
LW doesn't have the range to cover entire BI. So, Britsh could shelter their forces outside of range and within a month recover enough to challenge LW. They are producing more planes and their pilots were able to fight even if downed, provided they survive, of course. LW lacks the means to capitalize on their temporary capture of air superiority, which would, due to lack of fighter cover always extend only to the Southeastern England. The rest could only be bombed at night and that means nothing.
 
And the common nominator in all the examples you mentioned is that they didn't have full air superiority or sufficient assets in the area.

The Luftwaffe had undisputed air supremacy around Crete. While they took a toll of ships, they were still unable to prevent the RN from defeating the invasion convoys and then evacuating most of the troops.

One more point to consider. In September 1940 an R-class battleship was sent to shell the invasion ports. The Luftwaffe was powerless to stop it. Why? Because it was night.

Bad weather had a similar effect too.
 

Andre27

Banned
Sorry, you really should look through the myriad threads on this site on this very subject. This is simply a replication of effort...

Browsing through loads of dribble from armchair generals and take it as the divine truth.. seriously? If there's one thing for sure on this forum it's that people call ASB way too soon.

The consequences of losing air superiority over the British Isles are plain to see. The British during the BoB were very aware of those consequences.

Playing down the significance of the British victory during the BoB is like pissing on the grave of all the airmen who lost their lives.

Even if not all the airfields in the UK were in range of the LW, the factories who supplied part for the aircraft and the harbors needed to bring supplies were. Without air superiority the UK could simply not endure.

Not even taking into account the damage to moral. Winning the BoB gave the British confidence after defeat on the mainland. This is the same reason why the sinking of the Bsimarck was of importance.
 
Browsing through loads of dribble from armchair generals and take it as the divine truth.. seriously? If there's one thing for sure on this forum it's that people call ASB way too soon.

The consequences of losing air superiority over the British Isles are plain to see. The British during the BoB were very aware of those consequences.

Playing down the significance of the British victory during the BoB is like pissing on the grave of all the airmen who lost their lives.

Even if not all the airfields in the UK were in range of the LW, the factories who supplied part for the aircraft and the harbors needed to bring supplies were. Without air superiority the UK could simply not endure.

Not even taking into account the damage to moral. Winning the BoB gave the British confidence after defeat on the mainland. This is the same reason why the sinking of the Bsimarck was of importance.

My, but you've certainly read a lot into my post. The last thing I would ever do is underplay the British achievement in the BoB --and it was an achievement. Because I, like many others before on this site (and the military historians who have counterfactually gamed this out, as well) don't find your arguments (the same arguments that have been addressed too many times to count) convincing, you've gotten upset.
Just breathe.
You probably shouldn't assume you're right because you think we are nothing more than "armchair generals. You don't even know the backgrounds of your detractors.
 
Not really. Scapa flow was attacked and if Germany had managed to win the BoB then the RN could have been forced to a location even further away from German airfields.

Neutralization of the RAF would endanger anti submarine patrols in the canal and north sea.

In essence the RN could be forced back to a position where it could not effectively intervene in operation Sealion.

This is the essence why air superiority was key to any German plans for the UK.

As i said in my OP there are some butterflies needed, but not to the point of ASB.

What are the dominant Luftwaffe going to bomb the Navy with? They had fewer than 20 naval bombers in 1940 and Stukas will get swatted out of the sky and can't carry a significant enough payload to do damage. You can't just handwave 'the luftwaffe wins and the navy sinks' - Hitler tried that, and he lost.
 
The British winning the BoB was almost a forgone conclusion, they were replacing pilots faster than they were losing them, in contrast to the Germans who were losing pilots faster than they could replace them.

Also, saying that the rest of us are worthless because we're "armchair generals" is rather poor, since you're apparently relying on sticking your fingers in your ears and shouting to try to make your points. Now sod off and grow up.
 

Andre27

Banned
Now sod off and grow up.

I could very well say the same to you since i am not the one who's going personal.

Having a military background myself and being a student of history I'd like to think i have a decent idea of what i am talking about.

The tendency to call ASB is aggravating.
In OTL i agree that Germany simply did not have the capability to conduct an invasion of the UK. Lack of air superiority and lack of suitable landing craft are the main reasons.

However if the BoB had been a German victory and if had Germany had had sufficient landing craft (both significant butterflies, but not necessarily ASB) then failure of an invasion due to intervention of the RN is far from certain. I understand pride/confidence in the capability of the RN, but the way people go about projecting almost mythical properties to the RN is bordering ridiculous.

Another aspect is that with a German victory in the skies, Nazi Germany could slowly grind down the UK through destruction of its infrastructure + command and control. Add U-boats and how they managed to bring the British Isles on the verge of collapse and ASB moves further and further way.

This is alternate history and an integral part of that is looking beyond what's comfortable and known from the OTL.

Edit: Since it is clear that people refuse to take the possibility of a successful German invasion of the UK serious and go personal when someone does not agree with their comfortable pillow i've had it with this debate and I'll take my leave before i lose the last bit of respect for those posting here.
 
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I could very well say the same to you since i am not the one who's going personal.

Having a military background myself and being a student of history I'd like to think i have a decent idea of what i am talking about.

The tendency to call ASB is aggravating.
In OTL i agree that Germany simply did not have the capability to conduct an invasion of the UK. Lack of air superiority and lack of suitable landing craft are the main reasons.

However if the BoB had been a German victory and if had Germany had had sufficient landing craft (both significant butterflies, but not necessarily ASB) then failure of an invasion due to intervention of the RN is far from certain. I understand pride/confidence in the capability of the RN, but the way people go about projecting almost mythical properties to the RN is bordering ridiculous.

Another aspect is that with a German victory in the skies, Nazi Germany could slowly grind down the UK through destruction of its infrastructure + command and control. Add U-boats and how they managed to bring the British Isles on the verge of collapse and ASB moves further and further way.

This is alternate history and an integral part of that is looking beyond what's comfortable and known from the OTL.

I repeat: with what will the Luftwaffe bomb the navy, and how quickly and efficiently do your calculations suggest the defeat of the RN would come? How much of the RN's tonnage would end up at the bottom of the Channel and from which air squadrons and specific types of aircraft?
 
Look at the edit i made while you were posting.

That's a shame, I thought you'd want to try to convince us rather than take the odd position of 'I'm right and you're too stubborn to see it', which has a less than successful history in history and debate.
 
I could very well say the same to you since i am not the one who's going personal.
Actually you did:

"Browsing through loads of dribble from armchair generals and take it as the divine truth.. seriously?"

That's a personal statement aimed at a wide audience.

Having a military background myself and being a student of history I'd like to think i have a decent idea of what i am talking about.
Uh, no, you're positing outcomes the Germans never showed any ability to carry out OTL. sinking the RN for example, they sunk about 5 destroyers at Dunkirk, when they were basically just sitting there.

However if the BoB had been a German victory and if had Germany had had sufficient landing craft (both significant butterflies, but not necessarily ASB) then failure of an invasion due to intervention of the RN is far from certain.
Both the requisite issues require skimping elsewhere, and aside from an earlier shift to 24-hour production (which probably would not have happened without a change in leadership), the Germans were at about their limit to get done what they actually achieved OTL.

I understand pride/confidence in the capability of the RN, but the way people go about projecting almost mythical properties to the RN is bordering ridiculous.
No-one's giving the RN mythical powers, they're simply pointing out how profoundly incompetent the Luftwaffe was in targeting ships.

This is alternate history and an integral part of that is looking beyond what's comfortable and known from the OTL.
Only within reason, you can't suddenly go around positing dynamic (and often prescient) changes in one side while keeping the other as per OTL.

Edit: Since it is clear that people refuse to take the possibility of a successful German invasion of the UK serious...
You've never studied maths or logistics have you?

...i've had it with this debate and I'll take my leave before i lose the last bit of respect for those posting here.
That's alright, most people had lost their respect for you about your second post in this thread.
 
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