Aftermath/effects of a Conventional Non-Nuclear "Sino-Soviet War" in the 60's-70's

The POD is basically if the 1969 Sino-Soviet border conflict turns ugly which results in either party issuing a declaration of war on eachother.

Let's say this war lasts from 1969 to 1975 in which the conflict badly mauls China but the Soviets do not come out unscathed either.

The real question here is what is the aftermath after this deadly war?

How badly is the Soviet economy damaged after this war?, I figured China's economy would be nonexistent after this war.

Would Nixon secretly funnel weapons to the Chinese to make the Soviets bleed?

How does the communist bloc react to this massive conflict between two of the biggest communist powers?, would some take sides or would they try to meditate/resolve this conflict?

Any questions?, comments? Or answers? Feel free to discuss this topic.
 
Last edited:
I am not certain how the war would last more than a week, as it is impossible to defeat either country with just conventional weapons.
Exactly.
The Soviets would be stupid to try to conquer China on a man-man basis, especially when they have such an overwhelming massive superiority in nuclear (and other) weapons.

OTOH, if China tries to e.g. seize Siberia or something, then I could see the Soviets defending with conventional weapons. Maybe.

It depends on whether it's a glorified border skirmish (not much worse than '69 OTL) or something more. If the latter, and it looks like the Chinese are actually making real progress, then the nukes fly.

In 1970, the Chinese had 75 nukes or so https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_nuclear_weapons_stockpiles_and_nuclear_tests_by_country
and the DF-3, the first IRBM that could hit any of European Russia wasn't in service yet.
So how the Chinese would USE any of those weapons (except tactically, I suppose), I'm not sure.

In other words. The only way I can see a non-nuke conflict is if China attacks, and is so severely mauled by Soviet tanks/jets, etc. that the Chinese attack fails miserably. The Soviets would probably demand China dispose of its nukes and ballistic missiles (not wanting a rerun with a better armed China), which would mean the Chinese attack would have had to be a REALLY, really miserable failure.
 
I know this conflicts with the POD, but wouldn't Soviet intelligence give them enough time to use tactical nuclear weapons at the boarder?
 
Very timely for this thread to come considering that there's already a TL in the works and I'm just considering having the conflict erupt as the POD for my ever so in development TL.
 
I'll just quote me.

Ignoring the nuclear and American elements for a moment, the problem the Soviets face is actually similar to what the Japanese did in the 30's: they can smash the field armies the Chinese throw at them, but trying to occupy a tremendous country with a giant population that potentially hates you is a quagmire waiting to happen. The Soviets realized this and tried to tailor their plans around it but they ultimately recognized that any war with China contained considerable risk. There were two basic variations for Soviet war plans in a conventional conflict with China. The first variation was to seize a buffer region in Manchuria and Chinese Central Asia to conduct a largely defensive war until China sues for peace. The second variant was a lightning strike at Beijing deep operations style. The offensive would be structured with the goal to induce the pro-Soviet elements of the Chinese government to seize control and make peace.

Both variants have their advantages, both plans have their flaws. The first variant prevents the problems that would arise from Soviet forces getting stuck deep within China. It has the obvious flaw of guaranteeing a prolonged war that would be a big drain on the Soviet economy. The second variant has the advantage that it offers a way to end the war quickly. It has the flaw that in the case that it fails... well, large Soviet forces would be stuck deep within China.
 
When it comes to a Sino Soviet War, there's a difference between one starting in 69 and one in 79; both sides have more nukes in 79 than in the former, especially the USSR.
 
Top