After the BoF and BoB: options for the Luftwaffe

If the intention was just to locate convoys and home-in U-boats then the FW200 would have been perfectly adequate if the Luftwaffe hadn't insisted on loading it down with guns and bombs. Logic might have suggested that, if enemy fighters were present then the FW200 was a sitting-duck and guns would do it little good, while if there were no fighters then the guns were unnecessary.

FW 200s scored a lot of successes against convoys that had no fighter protection. There was no need to make low-level attacks; freighters, unlike warships, are too slow to dodge. The AA guns on merchant ships were ineffective against high-level bombing.

The problem was severe enough that the Royal Navy resorted to CAMs (catapult air merchant ships). These ships carried a few Hurricanes, which could be launched with a combination of a catapult and rocket assistance when a FW 200 was sighted. The Hurricane could shoot down or drive off the FW 200, but would then have to ditch at sea. A desperate expedient, but the Kondors had to be stopped.

The Kondors had to be armed because they could encounter land-based aircraft flying from England over the Bay of Biscay and west of it.
 
Luftwaffe only allowed 1/2 of production CONDORS to fly maritime missions for KM during the war and yet they inflicted considerable .
going on NOMISYRRUC posted data....
Both Smith & Kay and Fenec & Dancey list Fw200C production from 1940 to 1944 as follows:
1940 - 26
1941 - 58
1942 - 84
1943 - 76
1944 - 8

So the number available to KM should be [ships sunk and damaged]

1940 - 13 [Historically 13 condors sunk 20 MV and damaged 37 more ]
1941 - 29 [historically 29 CONDOR’S sunk 58 MV and damaged 37 more]
1942 - 42 [Historically 42 condors sunk 4 MV and damaged 1 more ]
1943 - 38 [Historically 38 condors sunk 11 MV and damaged 11 more ]
1944 - 8
 
I think this proves my point that developing another long-range aircraft would have been yet another example of 'the best is the enemy of the good'. When defences were weak, the Condor was 'good enough', and when defences got stronger, no aircraft would have done particularly well, so setting up a production-line to turn out relatively small numbers of a new design was a waste of resources. The FW200 was far from perfect, but it was available and adequate, and looking at the historical record of German attempts to introduce new aircraft shows a huge number of failed projects, so there's no guarantee that the intended replacement would meet expectations.
 
Another thing I have read is that the Luftwaffe had a high non-combat loss rate. Some of that can be attributed to the decline in the quality of aircrew in the second half of the war. But in the first half of the war it was because flight safety wasn't taken seriously enough.

If it is true would introducing an effective flight safety programme after the Battle of Britain might have provided enough instructors (by reducing the losses of skilled aircrew) for the expanded training programme that we have been discussing.
 
Another thing I have read is that the Luftwaffe had a high non-combat loss rate. Some of that can be attributed to the decline in the quality of aircrew in the second half of the war. But in the first half of the war it was because flight safety wasn't taken seriously enough.

I think I saw another poster claim (on a "How do the Germans win the BoB" thread) that the Germans tended to treat "cause unknown" losses as non-combat, and so undercounted combat losses. Always take care with statistics.:)
 
I think this proves my point that developing another long-range aircraft would have been yet another example of 'the best is the enemy of the good'. When defences were weak, the Condor was 'good enough', and when defences got stronger, no aircraft would have done particularly well, so setting up a production-line to turn out relatively small numbers of a new design was a waste of resources. The FW200 was far from perfect, but it was available and adequate, and looking at the historical record of German attempts to introduce new aircraft shows a huge number of failed projects, so there's no guarantee that the intended replacement would meet expectations.

what my takeaway from development cycle of LW, they wrote off or rode designs? there was plan for fifth engine for nose of Condor, but that was only improvement so they did not proceed since the great HE-177 would soon be available ...

per my earlier post, the twin fuselage HE-111 Zwilling could have served along with Condor using? 90% existing parts?

same with munitions, the earliest experiments were with SC-250 bomb which was what Condor could carry but it morphed into Fritz-X 5 times the weight, radio control, etc. available when Allies were already in North Africa.
 
A lot of the comments understate the German problem and the scale of solution needed and the way Germany fights the war, what they do is a feature not a bug.

Just to scale things the Kreipe Korster study gives the LW aircrew production 1 sept – june 44 as 29k personnel. The Commonwealth air training programme alone is designed in December 39 to produce 50,000 aircrew a year.

The Army is geared for fast violent decisive campaigns lasting around 2 months max its perfectly acceptable to push everything into winning the campaign decisively and then rebuild. After all you are losing 20-50% of the front line aircraft strength during the campaign anyway.

The Luftwaffe staff recommendation was actually to reduce the size of the air force by 20-30% in order to ensure adequate reserves of aircraft.

The Luftwaffe command solution was to maximise front line strength when you needed it. And that means at every pre war crisis you end up suspending training and suspending the expansion of training and not so incidentally intimidating France. Once you go to war its maximise everything.

Germany has a very thin technical skills base. Immediately pre war they are running into skill shortages in the aircraft industry capping off production. Those shortages will extend to maintenance crews in the service. This is not surprising, they go from nothing to 10,000 a/c pa in around 7 years.

The same issue applies to the Heer. Its mobile units have around a 6-week full strength life. After around 6 weeks the forward maintenance organisation rapidly collapses until units are around 50% vehicle strength and they stay there until they get to stand down. This is just mechanical issues not enemy action.

Changing that requires an increase not just in aircraft and IP but also in the base personnel to service them and the training establishment to produce them in the first place and that comes at a cost in something else. Basically the army. That's counterproductive, reducing the scale of the army especially the motorisation runs entirely counter to the concept of warfare intended to avoid a war of attrition against an economically superior enemy.

Come wartime there is a massive expansion from summer 39 – just before the BoF the LW increases flight schools by 42% and aircrew to 4700 ( up 31%) with 3,900 first line aircraft available for the BoF. But they also lose about 1000 kia and 700 wia in training accidents to achieve this. Thats a large proportion of the annual production of training aircraft btw.

As long as you as you win what’s the problem? You can win, then stand down and replace at comparative leisure.

That changes for the LW in 1940 when they get stuck in a long war Vs the RAF, but its manageable. The LW can decline battle any time it chooses, the RAF is not hitting anything vital. But it does not change for either the Heer or Germany. They can still win wars in short campaigns and are gearing up for the 6 week campaign to destroy Russia and get the resources needed for long war.

Sometime between late 41 and mid – late 42 it becomes a problem the LW cannot manage, some units are losing 100% of aircrew every three months, but by then you are playing catch up with much larger technical and economic powers who intended to fight a long war from the start and you are going through your entire front line strength about every 9 months.
 
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