After-effects of Russo-Japanese War "pyrrhic victory"?

[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Russo-Japanese War 1904-1905[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]An observant crewman on the Russian battleship, [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Petropavlovsk[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif], spots that the vessel i[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]s heading towards a minefield, is able to give warning and saves the ship. Later, with Stepan Makarov promoted to Admiral, despite the superiority of the Imperial Japanese Navy's ships, he gives the Japanese Admiral Togo a very difficult time and changes the course of the war. [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Japan loses all four of the Sakhalin and Kurile Islands to Russia, and is barely able at the end to win the war. There is a great wave of public anger over the huge losses and near defeat in Japan. This anger worsens as military historians and a governmental investigation reveal the in[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]competence, lack of preparation, and ill-placed over-confidence of the Imperial Japanese Army and Navy. General Nogi Maresuke is disgraced by the investigations despite earlier being regarded as a hero; in atonement he commits suicide, but leaves a letter which sparks further controversy about the Japanese military conduct of the war. These scandals together force a re-thinking of strategies and the realisation that Japan needs improved tactics, substantially better strategic thinking, more rapid modernisation of technology, and well equipped forces. An important political and social consequence is a dramatic weakening of the too commonly prevalent delusion in Japanese racial superiority, and the previous tendency towards "victory disease".


What are the likely results of this in Russia? What effect would it have on the Russian military during the Great War and afterwards?

How would it affect the next military conflict between Russia and Japan? What effect would it also have on Japan's strategies and equipment, etc, in the Pacific War? What would that affect in Europe?

I have the sneaky suspicion that WW2 would be messier, slightly longer. Possibly also that Russia ends up taking all of Germany (no West/East split).



Btw, hello everyone. My first post on this board
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The House of Romanov suddenly starts looking a lot healthier, but it's still living on borrowed time, depending on what Czar Nick does with it. If he can't steer it through the early 20th century, the Russian Revolution will still happen in some form, though his family may make it out.

For the Japanese, the most obvious conclusion is, as you said, losing victory disease. Curbstomping two great naval powers (China, then Russia) with the odds clearly against them made the IJN think they could punch at America's weight come 1941. On the other hand, it could mean an even greater degree of militarism, as the Japanese realize they still can't beat a Western power, and put even more resources into their armed forces. The second occurrence, of course, shoves Japan straight into bankruptcy.
 
With a minor victory by Russia, the Russian Revolution of 1905 is likely avoided or is lesser. This means no Duma, which either helps avoid the Revolutions of 1917 by not giving the people a way to organize against the Czar or helps it by not giving the people a pressure valve by which to release some tensions prior to 1917. I'm not sure which way it would go. Furthermore, a Japanese defeat means that the outright annexation of Korea is either delayed or never happens, meaning they have a more difficult time projecting into Manchuria and China, especially with the lack of access to railways. That or the disgrace of the Navy means the Imperial Army gains more say sooner.
 
You beat me to it!

The House of Romanov suddenly starts looking a lot healthier, but it's still living on borrowed time, depending on what Czar Nick does with it. If he can't steer it through the early 20th century, the Russian Revolution will still happen in some form, though his family may make it out.

For the Japanese, the most obvious conclusion is, as you said, losing victory disease. Curbstomping two great naval powers (China, then Russia) with the odds clearly against them made the IJN think they could punch at America's weight come 1941. On the other hand, it could mean an even greater degree of militarism, as the Japanese realize they still can't beat a Western power, and put even more resources into their armed forces. The second occurrence, of course, shoves Japan straight into bankruptcy.

On second thought, outright bankruptcy is very likely, since it nearly happened with their victory.
 
You beat me to it!



On second thought, outright bankruptcy is very likely, since it nearly happened with their victory.

Now that's interesting in the political consequences in Japan. It would make a supposed "victory" taste very bitter for the Japanese public, and the military would lose a lot more "face" as they get blamed for it.

Debts are very embarrassing, especially when they can't be repaid.
 
With a minor victory by Russia, the Russian Revolution of 1905 is likely avoided or is lesser. This means no Duma, which either helps avoid the Revolutions of 1917 by not giving the people a way to organize against the Czar or helps it by not giving the people a pressure valve by which to release some tensions prior to 1917. I'm not sure which way it would go. Furthermore, a Japanese defeat means that the outright annexation of Korea is either delayed or never happens, meaning they have a more difficult time projecting into Manchuria and China, especially with the lack of access to railways. That or the disgrace of the Navy means the Imperial Army gains more say sooner.

What happens in 1917 would no doubt be affected by how this version of Russia fought in any conflicts between 1905 to 1917.

Anyway, I was thinking of Japan suffering the sort of "victory" that doesn't feel like they've won by more than the skin of their teeth, and leaves a lot to be desired. Perhaps a "victory" which both sides can crow about because it's so unclear objectively.
 
The House of Romanov suddenly starts looking a lot healthier, but it's still living on borrowed time, depending on what Czar Nick does with it. If he can't steer it through the early 20th century, the Russian Revolution will still happen in some form, though his family may make it out.

Agreed, it's not enough to save the Tsar or avoid revolutions.

Maybe the Romanovs get to live in exile


For the Japanese, the most obvious conclusion is, as you said, losing victory disease. Curbstomping two great naval powers (China, then Russia) with the odds clearly against them made the IJN think they could punch at America's weight come 1941.

I have the impression that the Japanese military didn't understand the industrial capacity difference or what it would mean. They'd still take on America, I think, but perhaps with some extra caution and preparation. It takes more than just one failure to get rid of jingoism and belief in their destiny to be a great power one day. Japanese today still haven't lost that bit, really. As far as I can tell from living in Japan.

On the other hand, it could mean an even greater degree of militarism, as the Japanese realize they still can't beat a Western power, and put even more resources into their armed forces. The second occurrence, of course, shoves Japan straight into bankruptcy.

Taking the DPRK route? Bigger armies, bigger artillery, and mad plans for secret super-weapons?
 
Okay, I've been thinking more about the previous replies...

As jaybird suggests, the House of Romanov would look a lot healthier for a little while longer. The government is perhaps even more likely to go charging off into the next war with more confidence; using mostly the same unchanged tactics/strategy that worked generally well against the Japanese. After all, they very nearly "won", and could claim that taking the Sakhalin Islands was a victory of sorts, although international observers see that the Russia was the loser even if not outright. Russia loses face, but not so bad.

So, the incident of "Bloody Sunday" doesn't occur. No massacre, no "Revolution of 1905". Consequently no "October Manifesto" and no creation of the Duma. The unrest otherwise continues.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Father_Gapon Father Gapon would also not be assassinated, and has no reason to suddenly flee Russia. His Assembly of Russian Factory and Mill Workers of St. Petersburg continues to grow larger and he becomes gradually more influential. It's possible that Grand Duke Nicholas gets to know Father Gapon because of this.

(edited because didn't want to jump too far ahead)
 
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