After a victory in the Chinese Civil War, could the KMT capture Manchuria?

Could the KMT keep Manchuria after defeating the CCP?

  • Yes, they can.

    Votes: 29 70.7%
  • No, the soviets will intervene.

    Votes: 12 29.3%

  • Total voters
    41
So, suppose that the KMT manages to defeat the CCP early in the Chinese Civil War before much trouble can happen, and march on Manchuria. What happens next? Can the nationalists keep Manchuria or will the USSR intervene?
The soviets could prop up a friendly communist regime in a region that was about to be revealed as relatively rich in oil. However, propping up the CCP in Manchuria could mean that the KMT will end up antagonizing the USSR for the rest of the Cold War, so the possibility of the soviets dropping Manchuria is technically there.
What do you think?
 

RousseauX

Donor
So, suppose that the KMT manages to defeat the CCP early in the Chinese Civil War before much trouble can happen, and march on Manchuria. What happens next? Can the nationalists keep Manchuria or will the USSR intervene?
The soviets could prop up a friendly communist regime in a region that was about to be revealed as relatively rich in oil. However, propping up the CCP in Manchuria could mean that the KMT will end up antagonizing the USSR for the rest of the Cold War, so the possibility of the soviets dropping Manchuria is technically there.
What do you think?
The KMT in otl came very close to taking Manchuria and winning in the late 1940s and Soviets weren't going to bail out the CCP

The Soviets under Stalin had good relations with the KMT, making the CCP win the civil war was not high priority
 

RousseauX

Donor
Also the Communists did not control Manchuria before 1946 or so which is really late in the civil war so the question doesn't make sense
 
Then the issue all turns on what Stalin wants. He may just turn Manchuria into a “North China” ala North Korea or East Germany. In which case, we have a new flash point for the Cold War.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Stalin handed over Manchuria to the Nationalist Chinese after defeating the occupying Japanese. For this scenario to happen with Russia continues to occupy it and turns it into a independent country or it invades China after the communist rebels were defeated.

Please advise which scenario you are envisioning.
 
Stalin handed over Manchuria to the Nationalist Chinese after defeating the occupying Japanese.
Stalin didn't want to recognise the communists as China government quite yet. To continue to recognise Chiang as China head of state and not turn Manchuria to him, on paper at least, was a bit untenable. Hence why he signed a treaty to that effect.

As soon as that treaty was signed, however, the soviets did their utmost to not respect it. They specifically organised their withdrawal to ensure that communists forces would replace them (the only territories in Manchuria the KMT took was a few cities evacuated by the russians before they predicted the american would airlift nationalists forces there), they made sure that the japanese arms there end up in communists hands, as well as more then a few pieces of russian equipment.

So no, Stalin definitely didn't hand over Manchuria to the Nationalists.

As for the matter at hand, I'd say it would depend on the minutias if this Alt-Chinese Civil War and how badly, exactly, are the bridges between Nanjing and Moscow as a result. One thing is sure tough: if the soviets do move into Manchuria they certainly won't tolerate Mao for long and would probably have him replaced by Wang Ming as the latter was far more ideologically close to Moscow and more reliable from their POV.
 
While the Soviets did help the CCP in the course of withdrawing from Manchuria, nevertheless the fact remains that they completed their withdrawal long before it was clear the Communists would win the civil war. I doubt that Stalin would have sent the Red Army back if Chiang had occupied Harbin. BTW, it is a myth that Chiang refrained from taking Harbin in 1946 because Marshall dissuaded him; as I noted at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/gRV99OKh4jc/hMSaSkGkCeQJ
"Marshall did not coerce a reluctant Chiang into losing a golden opportunity to wipe out Lin Biao's troops; rather, Chiang as well as Marshall was worried that going too far north could be provocative to Stalin, and anyway capturing Harbin would not have made that much of a difference, militarily speaking, for the KMT" because Lin Biao's troops would flee to the hinterland, where the CCP was strong. But if Chiang should endanger them there, too, I don't think they will get anything more than aid, not troops, from the USSR, and if need be they will flee to the USSR.
 
From the early 1930s it had been US, and Chinese, policy that Manchuria was part of China. Not allowing Chinese forces to reoccupy Manchuria would basically be an act of war of the USSR against China, a US ally, in an area where the Soviets were relatively weak and the US and China strong - assuming the the CCP has been pretty much wiped out. Having Manchuria in the hands of the USSR or a friendly regime was nice, but not essential, as the Chinese no matter what were going to be too bust for a long time fixing their country up and stabilizing things to represent a real threat to the Soviet Far East. Attempting to essentially annex territory that the USSR had acknowledged was part of China might have potential to upset the apple cart in Eastern Europe which was much more vital to Soviet interests.

Letting an existing CCP get Japanese weapons and even some important territory as the USSR withdrew was a low cost low risk policy. If it works fine, if not so what. If by the the time Chinese forces are going to replace Soviet ones the CCP has been beat down, Stalin won't risk important gains for Manchuria.

A question is will Kim the first still get installed by the USSR in their half of Korea? If Chiang owns Manchuria, the only connection between a communist North Korea and the USSR is a very small border.
 
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