After a Different Gettysburg

Suppose the Battle of Gettysburg is a Confederate victory somehow, but the Army of the Potomac has withdrawn intact. Union casualties are about 23,000 (fighting strength after the battle of 70,000) and Confederate casualties are about 14,000 (fighting strength after the battle of about 57,000; not nearly as many wounded and very few missing). Gettysburg was not decisive and although considered a Confederate "victory" it is not the knockout blow or show of strength Lee had hoped for. It is now July 4th, 1863 and most of the Confederate officers think they have the strength to continue fighting...for a while. Does Lee decide to retreat into Virginia or push for a follow-up battle? Where is the most likely location for a next battle, when will it occur, and what do you think the conditions will be?

Personally I think Lee will either retreat (if he thinks the supply lines are unstable) or try to surround DC and Baltimore with an eye to destroy all rail connections leading into the Capital. A follow-up battle at the Susquehanna River near its delta at one of the key railroads would be an all-or-nothing gamble. It would put Philadelphia and Baltimore in striking range but would be a massive gamble if their supply lines are cut.
 
these are like nearly the exact same questions i'm asking. course as of right now i'm more focused on "how" they win at Gettysburg
 
Hence why I thought these threads compliment and do not compete. A victory at Gettysburg is probably not enough to win the war, and the question is will Lee gamble with his army and try to the knockout blow or retreat to Virginia. If he gambles where/when is the showdown likely to occur?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Lee obviously cannot remain for very long in Pennsylvania. If he win a clear victory at Gettysburg, the AotP will fall back to Pipe Creek to cover Baltimore and Washington. Lee cannot move north over the Susquehanna without the Yankees easily cutting him off from Virginia. What will happen is that Lee will busy himself tearing up the B&O Railroad and foraging from the rich farms of Pennsylvania before getting back to Virginia while the getting is good. With a victory at

The main consequences of a Confederate victory at Gettysburg are likely to be political and diplomatic. War-weariness is beginning to settle over the North by the summer of 1863 (reaching its culmination its the summer of 1864). The Union triumph at Gettysburg IOTL raised morale a bit, but the New York Draft Riots still broke out a few weeks later. In a TL with a Union defeat at Gettysburg, the morale on the home front will be in a much worse shape. I would suspect that the news of the fall of Vicksburg will be overshadowed by news of the defeat at Gettysburg.

Diplomatically, in Britain there was a move afoot from some MPs to introduce a resolution to recognize the Confederacy, with France having already indicated it would follow suit. When news of the Union victory at Gettysburg arrived, the effort fizzled quickly. If the news instead was of a Confederate triumph at Gettysburg, the outcome might have been different. After all, invading enemy territory and defeated the enemy's main army in a pitched battle is something that a nation does, not just a band of rebels.

In short, the actual military results of a Confederate victory at Gettysburg might not amount to much. But politically and diplomatically the results could be quite significant. And when it comes to war, politics and diplomacy are usually more important than military matters.
 
General Audacity is likely to pursue the Union army, however. And while the Pipe Creek line is nice, it has to be reached and held before it can break the ANV like rocks do waves.

Something to consider: Just as OTL, rains are coming. Rains that will be a serious problem.

How that influences the two armies in this situation would be important.
 
Maybe, but there are very few examples of a defeated army being successfully pursued in the Civil War.
well I meant that have Lee find out theAoP is following him when he invades the north & turns & meets up somewhere in Maryland
These Gettysburg threads are all coming up now because its the 150th anniversay? isn't it?

actually I was just wanting to start a TL but thanks for reminding me it was coming up in a month
 
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