Afghanistan War WI

MrHola

Banned
OTL:

When the Afghan Communists took power in 1978, they were divided into two factions, each named after their party newspaper. The Khalq ("Masses") tended to be rural, Pashtuns, radical, and independent. The Parcham ("Banner") was mostly urban, composed of ethnic minorities, relatively moderate, and pro-Soviet. The Khalq was a bit larger and controlled the army; the Parcham dominated the secret police and civil service.

Nur Muhammed Taraki, the head of the Khalq, took over. Taraki was a classic ideologue who didn't understand things on the ground (and the only Communists with experience at administration tended to be in the Parcham). He began to quarrel with his deputy, Hafizullah Amin. While Taraki was impractical, Amin was a ruthless SOB. He began brute-force modernization of the countryside, driving many peasants into the Mujehadin. The Soviets begged him to slow down the pace, but he replied: "Did Stalin make the Revolution with white gloves?"

Amin began openly courting the US (even as he was fighting US-backed rebels), and his flatterers started calling him the "Asian Tito." Taraki flew to Moscow, where he promised he'd get rid of Amin and slow down the revolution. Amin was ready for him; as soon as Taraki arrived in Kabul, Amin's thugs grabbed him and smothered him with a pillow.

That did it for the Soviets (who had already turned down several requests from Taraki to invade). They rushed in, murdered Amin, and put Parcham leader Barbrak Karmal in charge. The invasion destroyed the Communists' credentials as Afghan nationalists, the Khalqi army was completely hostile to the Parcham government, and Karmal turned out to be a complete nitwit. Gorbachev sacked Karmal in 1985, but the damage was done.

POD: Instead of flying Taraki to Moscow, the Soviets asassinate Amin, and Taraki is once more leader of Afghanistan. The Khalq is in charge instead of the Parcham, so the Communist army is more competent, but it's secret police and administration are weakened.

Do the Soviets still invade? They don't need to as much, since thegovernment is now a loyal puppet, but Taraki is going to keep begging them. There are still some provoking factors (like the riot that killed Soviet advisors in Herat).

How do the Mujehadin do? The Khalqi army tended to be strong but brittle -- its best units could cream the rebels, but troops any worse than that tended to desert or defect. Without the Soviets, the Mujehadin probably take over the southeast and northeast, with the Communists in control everywhere else. While the Mujehadin will be short on arms, the Khalqis are always undermanned and can't go on the offensive.

Madrassas will sprout like OTL, with Saudi money. Without a Soviet invasion, Pakistan in the Zia era will be something of a pariah. I'm not sure if the "Arab-Afghans" like Bin Laden will come to join the fight or not.

Detente is already dying, so even if there's no Soviet invasion, tensions will increase between the USA and USSR no matter what. SALT II dies before being signed.

If the Soviets do invade, the Mujehadin probably don't grow as much, because the Soviets would actually be invited in. American reaction would probably be the same as OTL -- invited or not, it's still flexing muscle outside the Warsaw Pact, and there's still the fears of a Soviet move to the Indian Ocean.

I think the Soviets get sucked in eventually, if only because increasing Soviet advisors and failure to defeat the rebels will get Brezhnev (or whoever makes decisions while Brezhnev's brain is in la-la land)to think it's an emergency. But the invasion is delayed by a year or more, and they've got an Afghan government that is a bit better prepared. Once they're in, the temptation to replace the Khalq with Parcham will probably take hold (especially if the Afghan army hasn't been doing well).
Anything else?
 
how about the soviets funding and arming, and probbably sending trained personel to one side and the americans doing what they did in OTL?
althou if theres no direct soviet involvment maybe USA would also be less involved

or more something like Checenia?

the war could last longer IMO since this would not be seen so much as open agression, but probaby theyd market it more as aiding a friendly nation fight terrorism, so even Jelcin would probbably send foces to Afganistan and Putin would continue

Possibly the Chechens would develop a network of conections with the Taliban, and both forces could become even more deadly
 
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