Afghan-Pakistan War sometime before 1979

Ak-84

Banned
A major conflict on Pakistan's Western Borders.

Lets say the whole Pashtunistan issue eventuallu leads to war. What would be the most likely time. What would be the war aims of the bellkigerents. India and and the Superpowers role if any. And the ultimate result.
 
Possibly a very pro-Indian new government comes into power, and in order to win legitimacy among the Pashtun tribes of Southern Afghanistan, the new Afghani leader (communist dictator? President?) rachets up the rhetoric about "all Pashtuns belonging in their homeland of Afghanistan". As instability mounts in Pakistan during the final years of Bhutto's reign, the Afghans attacks Pakistan's tribal areas, hoping to "liberate" them without much trouble.

The consequences of the war? Pakistan invades India out of force of habit, as well as sends troops north, Zia ul-Haq overthrows the government, there is a limited nuclear exchange that evolves into Pakistan becoming a nuclear wasteland, along with Northern India?
 

Ak-84

Banned
WHy would Pakistan invade India if Afghanistan attacks FATA. In your senario, Pakistan is committing suicide, which thus far it has shown little desire to do.

Most likely would be efforts (probably successful) to evict the Afghans from FATA, and possible counter attacls into Afghanistan, an attack from Quetta (where Pakistan has two divisions stationed) towards Kandahar.
 

nastle

Banned
outside powers ?
India and USSR would definately back the afghan claims against a US ally

There is no way pakistan army could even fight a 2 front war let alone win one...nukes are out of question
not only they dont have any at that time, but they have no means of delivering them
 

nastle

Banned
WHy would Pakistan invade India if Afghanistan attacks FATA. In your senario, Pakistan is committing suicide, which thus far it has shown little desire to do.

Most likely would be efforts (probably successful) to evict the Afghans from FATA, and possible counter attacls into Afghanistan, an attack from Quetta (where Pakistan has two divisions stationed) towards Kandahar.
Why successful ? it would be a big mess for pak fauj
Afghans are likely to be well supplied by india and USSR
kinda like a reverse of afghanistan war
 
I posted just such a scenario yesterday.

The hardest part I think is getting India to go along, although something like a high profile terrorist attack / assassination could be the catalyst.

If the Pakistanis can be persuaded to throw in the towel early in order to save the Punjab and Sind I think the Indians/Afghans/Soviets could accomplish their war aims at reasonable expense. If, however, the Pakistanis refuse to concede defeat things would get VERY ugly: an invasion of the Pakistani heartland would be a bloodbath for all concerned (which is why I think the Pakistanis would have the sense to surrender and cede peripheral areas first).

edit -- I don't think Pakistan had any working nuclear weapons at this point, and if they did have one or two not-very-deliverable a-bombs they'd be suicidal to use them under any scenario.
 
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I posted just such a scenario yesterday.

The hardest part I think is getting India to go along, although something like a high profile terrorist attack / assassination could be the catalyst.

If the Pakistanis can be persuaded to throw in the towel early in order to save the Punjab and Sind I think the Indians/Afghans/Soviets could accomplish their war aims at reasonable expense. If, however, the Pakistanis refuse to concede defeat things would get VERY ugly: an invasion of the Pakistani heartland would be a bloodbath for all concerned (which is why I think the Pakistanis would have the sense to surrender and cede peripheral areas first).

edit -- I don't think Pakistan had any working nuclear weapons at this point, and if they did have one or two not-very-deliverable a-bombs they'd be suicidal to use them under any scenario.

Didn't know that, I didn't do my research i guess... Anyway though, in reference to the questions about my (admittedly possibly ASB) scenario above, I was under the impression that Pakistan's security establishment is almost maniacally obsessed with India and victory against India (as you can see now with its war against the Taliban). They might, assuming they believe India has supported the Afghan invasion, launch a pre-emptive war to deny the Indians the chance to annex their territory. They would hope that the loyalist Pashtuns in the NWFP and FATA would resist long enough for their army, or a conscript force, or even the Americans, to come rescue them. India is the real enemy, and is the only existential threat, in their minds at least.
 

Ak-84

Banned
Your guess is wrong then and based on conjectures, presumptions and surmises. India seen as a threat true but not something the Army has to worry about at least until the mid sixties and even after. Please do not place 1990's and 2000's stategic outlook on earlier era.

Furthermore "hoping that loyalist Pashtuns would resist" is ASB to the extreme, Pakistan was not long past having had a pashtun as a President and furthemore FATA and NWFP were and still are manor recruting grounds for the Army,
 
not to distract too much from the original idea of this thread, but was there ever anytime between 1948 and 1979 that Afghanistan and Pakistan might've merged somehow? peacefully, that is.
 

Ak-84

Banned
In 1956, such a confederation was proposed and seriously considered. Pakistan was at that time toying with ceasing to be a dominion (an idea that was not particularly popular) and it was thought a Union with Afghanistan could be done instead. Nothing came of it.
 
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