Afghan history without the Soviet invasion

CaliGuy

Banned
What would Afghanistan's history over the last 40 years have looked like without the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan?
 
It would still have a king, even if islam would still be important, islamism would not.

The monarchy had already ended in 1973. The Soviets didn't invade until 1979. Anyway, the Soviets not invading could be a help in the long run, provided that they still support the Afghans with air and artillery support, trainers and funds etc. etc. The Afghan army actually fought better after the Soviets were gone. Of course, the Soviets still need the Afghan communist regime to mellow to soak the moderates off the Islamist opposition. If that were to happen then Afghanistan could actually be significantly better of than it's today.
 
if there is a communist government they would sent large amounts of advisers , special forces and aid and Mujahideen would still rise but they won't get as much western aid without soviet ground forces
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The monarchy had already ended in 1973. The Soviets didn't invade until 1979. Anyway, the Soviets not invading could be a help in the long run, provided that they still support the Afghans with air and artillery support, trainers and funds etc. etc. The Afghan army actually fought better after the Soviets were gone. Of course, the Soviets still need the Afghan communist regime to mellow to soak the moderates off the Islamist opposition. If that were to happen then Afghanistan could actually be significantly better of than it's today.
Would the Communist Afghan government still get overthrown in this TL after the collapse of the Soviet Union?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
If the Soviets hadn't invaded Afghanistan was going to polarize between radical Marxists (the Soviets sidelined the extremists when they invaded) and mujhadeen. The radical Marxists probably did not have good prospects against the Mujhadeen. If they did, the Soviets would not have felt the need to intervene directly, replace the President, and so on.
 
What would Afghanistan's history over the last 40 years have looked like without the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan?

I am doubtful that it would be too good, but it may have done better than OTL.

Prior to 1979, the Soviets had already assassinated the leading left wing leader (who the Soviets saw as being too radical since they saw his policies as needlessly aggravating the rural Afghans), the regime was increasingly seeking American support to supplement the support they were getting from the Soviets (which raised Soviet fears that Afghanistan might flip entirely from being friendly as it was under the king, meaning the Soviets would have hostile neighbours along their entire Southern border), there was already growing tension between urban and rural and Islamist and secular and nationalism was already dangerously high (witness the Afghan governments of the period and their rising interest in taking off the Tribal frontier zone off Pakistan which the Soviets really didn't like since even if Pakistan was a US ally, a big land grab right in their back yard was not something they wanted to see).

Without the invasion, IMO we see an earlier civil war. I'm not convinced that the Afghan government and secularists would have won that without serious Soviet intervention.

If the Soviets don't stage a major intervention, and instead cut their losses, things could get interesting, as Afghanistan falls to an Islamist regime at about the same time as Iran does. Alternatively, the US could step in, cut support for the rebels and up support for the secularist government in a bid to flip the already vacillating Afghans from the Soviet camp to the American camp.

fasquardon
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Alternatively, the US could step in, cut support for the rebels and up support for the secularist government in a bid to flip the already vacillating Afghans from the Soviet camp to the American camp.
What would happen if the rebels still win afterwards, though?

If the Soviets hadn't invaded Afghanistan was going to polarize between radical Marxists (the Soviets sidelined the extremists when they invaded) and mujhadeen. The radical Marxists probably did not have good prospects against the Mujhadeen. If they did, the Soviets would not have felt the need to intervene directly, replace the President, and so on.
If Afghanistan falls to Islamist Muhajideen, could these Islamists be a bit smarter than the Taliban and thus try creating an alliance with Iran?
 
If Afghanistan falls to Islamist Muhajideen, could these Islamists be a bit smarter than the Taliban and thus try creating an alliance with Iran?

The Shia Muhajideen were a minority. Most Muhajideen groups were Sunni. One could get a pro-Iran Sunni regime (particularly if Punjabi nationalism means the regime has a poor relationship with Pakistan), but anything like the Taliban of OTL wouldn't be acceptable to Iran, even if they were smarter.

What would happen if the rebels still win afterwards, though?

The Soviets try to court the rebels?

Could lead to the amusing situation of the Soviets supporting the theocrats while the Americans supported the Marxists (similar things happened previously in the Cold War, so not impossible).

fasquardon
 
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