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Say while FDR is still elected and re-elected in the US, Hindenburg does not run for re-election in Germany (1932) and his successor sees the Weimar Republic weather the Great Depression without appointing Hitler or anything like that. Bottom line -- come 1939, Europe is still at peace, while Japan is still embroiled in China. And FDR, without a chaotic foreign situation, decides not leave open the possibility of a third term.

As custom for AETs -- first, who would be running for the respective nominations, and who would then secure them? Then, how does the general play out?

For example -- as I see it, Wendell Wilkie doesn't really stand anything of a chance for the GOP nomination TTL; that seems to leave Robert Taft and Thomas Dewey, and with no foreign threat, Taft may well have the edge. I understand also that James Farley was the favorite for the Dems if Roosevelt wasn't drafted, though I can see Hull as a possibility. If Taft gets the Republican nod, and a member of FDR's inner circle like Farley gets it from the Democrats, then you'd have about as stark a referendum on the New Deal as you could get; in that scenario, I see Democrats getting a third term fairly easily.

Does this sound about right?

CONSOLIDATION: Also, if by chance we arrive at a consensus winner (or really short list of potential winners), I'd also be interested in briefly looking at what the next Presidency may be like TTL...
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