AET: (US) 1940 w/o WWII

Say while FDR is still elected and re-elected in the US, Hindenburg does not run for re-election in Germany (1932) and his successor sees the Weimar Republic weather the Great Depression without appointing Hitler or anything like that. Bottom line -- come 1939, Europe is still at peace, while Japan is still embroiled in China. And FDR, without a chaotic foreign situation, decides not leave open the possibility of a third term.

As custom for AETs -- first, who would be running for the respective nominations, and who would then secure them? Then, how does the general play out?

For example -- as I see it, Wendell Wilkie doesn't really stand anything of a chance for the GOP nomination TTL; that seems to leave Robert Taft and Thomas Dewey, and with no foreign threat, Taft may well have the edge. I understand also that James Farley was the favorite for the Dems if Roosevelt wasn't drafted, though I can see Hull as a possibility. If Taft gets the Republican nod, and a member of FDR's inner circle like Farley gets it from the Democrats, then you'd have about as stark a referendum on the New Deal as you could get; in that scenario, I see Democrats getting a third term fairly easily.

Does this sound about right?

CONSOLIDATION: Also, if by chance we arrive at a consensus winner (or really short list of potential winners), I'd also be interested in briefly looking at what the next Presidency may be like TTL...
 
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I pretty much agree with your assessment here.

As I understand it, Wilkie's nomination in 1940 OTL was a bit of a fluke anyway. I can't see Dewie as the nominee in 1940-he wasn't even Ny Governer at that point. The race will be between Taft, Vandenburg, Mcnary and perhaps Bricker. All at this point have very simelar policies, but I think Taft is the nominee.

As for the Dems, I'd favour Jim Farley, though Alman Barkley and Cordell Hull could be in with a chance. One thing I'm fairly sure of is that Jack Garner won't come close to the nomination-the tradition of VP's succeeding their presidents wasn't around yet, he was by this point in his 70's and FDR wouldn't be keen on Garner running either.

Assuming you've got a Taft/Farley Match-up, I think Farley will win fairly easily. Some people will try and make an issue out of his religion, but at the end of the day he'll be running for FDR's third term and Taft will remind too many voters of Coolidge/Hoover for their liking.

As for Farley's presidency, it's dificult to tell what it'd be like exactly, given that World War II (the thing that defined FDR's third term) isn't happenning ITTL.

My guess is that he'd run things simelarly to FDR, though he won't be able to persuade as many people to go along with him and back his agender. It also depends what happens with the economy as well-if it continues to recover, Farley probably wins a second term in office. If not, then the republicans stand a chance of getting back in if they play their cards right.
 
I guess that just leaves the guy who gets the DNC VP nomination (which, if the Curse of Tecumseh holds, would be important) -- a southerner would be a safe bet, maybe Cordell Hull or William Bankhead...
 
Well then in 1944 you'll probably see Dewey-Farley. If Farley can win reelection then 1948 then it will be interesting to see if Harold Stassen can make a run. Although he was Governor Pre-WW2 IOTL his Naval Experience was surely a plus when he ran. But, if he is in the same position his was IOTL in 1948 then there's no Taft that he can gaffe towards by challenging in Ohio, and the issue of banning the Communist Party probably wouldn't have been as large of an issue. Anyway, that means that Stassen can very well run and win in 1948.
And of course ignoring the much larger butterflies down the road from no WW2 (although it was probably eventually inevitable, never mind that though) another U.S Presidential POD is that Joseph Kennedy Jr. will be alive by his coming of age to run for President, and if he wins (probably in 1960, but maybe in 1956 at the earliest) he will not be the same Kennedy as any of his brothers. As in, an anti-Semite social conservative.
 
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