Assuming Al Gore doesn't run instead, then Hillary slamdunks Edwards, but he does manage to build up a head of steam as a minority candidate fighting at least until Super Tuesday (maybe longer), sort of like a more high profile Jerry Brown '92 campaign. I doubt Edwards gets chosen as VP. Even if his personal scandal is butterflied away in this scenario his people are still going to get into a pretty vehement war of words with Clinton's people, and it will be nasty while it lasts. The Netroots demand it that cycle.
As for others getting into the race, I doubt it. The great non-candidates of the cycle were Gore and Mark Warner, and neither were responding to Obama. Indeed Obama was most likely responding to Gore's decision not to run, seeing as that opened up a vast sum of Hollywood donor money.
Warner was responding to whether or not it was necessary for an actual redstate Democrat to run as the heir to Clintonism. That wasn't needed, so he didn't run.
(If Gore runs, then he could actually beat Hilary, just as long as he wins Iowa off the bat. But that's not the PoD here.)
VP pick? Like I said, Edwards as leader of the anti-Hilary wing of the party isn't going to be much of a choice. But if he's roused up the passions of the Clintonphobes in the party then I think his effect will be to make Hilary choose someone to her Left as running mate. Sort of like how McCain was forced to choose Palin to appease his party's Right.
This would be where BHO comes into his own, you might think.
Uh huh. No.
If there has to be a progressive star on the ticket, then the collective logic of the Clintons and their old crew, plus their new campaign guru Mark Penn, all leads to... Sherrod Brown of the pivotal swing state of Ohio. Right there, that's a 50% + 1 electoral coalition of New Dems and post-Howard Dean progressives.
If there doesn't have to be progressive on the ticket then the field of choices is much greater.
I don't want to cast aspersions, but if Obama never runs for POTUS then I'm afraid he's too Congressional Black Caucus-ey and Cook County-ish to fit in with the Clinton ideal of recreating something that looks like their '92 appeal to middle America.
The PoD I had in mind -- in mid-2006, while Obama is working on his book, Audacity of Hope, he has to start over due to a technical issue (laptop breaks or something); as a result, the book's release (and subsequent tour) is delayed several months, so that by the time he feels the country's love, it's too late to effectively throw his hat into the ring.
I seriously doubt Obama requires that book in order to get in the race.
He has a couple of things even better than a book tour after election day, '06: he has personal understandings with Senate Majority Leader-Elect Harry Reid and House Speaker-Elect Nancy Pelosi; he has a reputation as the leading non-Clinton fundraiser among elected Democrats; he has an anti-war base; he has Plouffe and Axelrod.
The book tour was just an excuse to schedule media.