AET: 2008 w/o Obama

How do the Democratic primaries play out if Obama doesn't run? Does Edwards stand alone on her left-flank, or do Senate Democrats look to another candidate? Would the Republican primaries be affected, and if so, how?

The PoD I had in mind -- in mid-2006, while Obama is working on his book, Audacity of Hope, he has to start over due to a technical issue (laptop breaks or something); as a result, the book's release (and subsequent tour) is delayed several months, so that by the time he feels the country's love, it's too late to effectively throw his hat into the ring.
 
Hillary wins. GOP runs in 2012 that Hillary is not a US citizen, as she has not produced an accurate enough birth certificate. So the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy[SIZE=-4](tm)[/SIZE] convinces the Republican Base that she was really born in Hell:eek: and is the Anti-Christ for the End Times to Come (which can only be stopped by pulling the Republican lever!:rolleyes::D).

Hillary re-elected.:) End times don't arrive.:p

lol wat

...........
 
Oh, I thought you meant McCain wins. I think the reason there was such a delay with the whole "occupy wall street" and all that other protest was because people were giving Obama a chance. However 2010 comes along, the Republicans sweep and Obama isn't the Messiah people thought.
 
Well, the dems can't run against the war, and there will be a little less excitement (Obama really fired up the base).

McCain still wins the GOP nod.

Don't recall any polls on a McCain vs Hillary match up.

Likely Hilllary wins.
 
Assuming Al Gore doesn't run instead, then Hillary slamdunks Edwards, but he does manage to build up a head of steam as a minority candidate fighting at least until Super Tuesday (maybe longer), sort of like a more high profile Jerry Brown '92 campaign. I doubt Edwards gets chosen as VP. Even if his personal scandal is butterflied away in this scenario his people are still going to get into a pretty vehement war of words with Clinton's people, and it will be nasty while it lasts. The Netroots demand it that cycle.

As for others getting into the race, I doubt it. The great non-candidates of the cycle were Gore and Mark Warner, and neither were responding to Obama. Indeed Obama was most likely responding to Gore's decision not to run, seeing as that opened up a vast sum of Hollywood donor money.

Warner was responding to whether or not it was necessary for an actual redstate Democrat to run as the heir to Clintonism. That wasn't needed, so he didn't run.

(If Gore runs, then he could actually beat Hilary, just as long as he wins Iowa off the bat. But that's not the PoD here.)

VP pick? Like I said, Edwards as leader of the anti-Hilary wing of the party isn't going to be much of a choice. But if he's roused up the passions of the Clintonphobes in the party then I think his effect will be to make Hilary choose someone to her Left as running mate. Sort of like how McCain was forced to choose Palin to appease his party's Right.

This would be where BHO comes into his own, you might think.

Uh huh. No.

If there has to be a progressive star on the ticket, then the collective logic of the Clintons and their old crew, plus their new campaign guru Mark Penn, all leads to... Sherrod Brown of the pivotal swing state of Ohio. Right there, that's a 50% + 1 electoral coalition of New Dems and post-Howard Dean progressives.

If there doesn't have to be progressive on the ticket then the field of choices is much greater.

I don't want to cast aspersions, but if Obama never runs for POTUS then I'm afraid he's too Congressional Black Caucus-ey and Cook County-ish to fit in with the Clinton ideal of recreating something that looks like their '92 appeal to middle America.

The PoD I had in mind -- in mid-2006, while Obama is working on his book, Audacity of Hope, he has to start over due to a technical issue (laptop breaks or something); as a result, the book's release (and subsequent tour) is delayed several months, so that by the time he feels the country's love, it's too late to effectively throw his hat into the ring.

I seriously doubt Obama requires that book in order to get in the race.

He has a couple of things even better than a book tour after election day, '06: he has personal understandings with Senate Majority Leader-Elect Harry Reid and House Speaker-Elect Nancy Pelosi; he has a reputation as the leading non-Clinton fundraiser among elected Democrats; he has an anti-war base; he has Plouffe and Axelrod.

The book tour was just an excuse to schedule media.
 
Oh, I thought you meant McCain wins. I think the reason there was such a delay with the whole "occupy wall street" and all that other protest was because people were giving Obama a chance. However 2010 comes along, the Republicans sweep and Obama isn't the Messiah people thought.

Welcome to the fellowship of AH.com my friend. Yes, you did misread the OP, but that happens frequently. Who do you imagine the Democrats would end up nominating for POTUS & VPOTUS if Obama had not entered the race?

<<<<<----->>>>>

Here are my thoughts JFP:

Announced candidates as of the end of '06 include the OTL group of Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Richardson & Vilsack, plus Tom Daschle (to release a butterfly into the mix).

By the end of '07 Dodd, Richardson & Vilsack have dropped out. Early in '07 Wesley Clark considers entering the race but later decides not to. All year rumor that Al Gore would enter the race swirled around the nation - he consistantly stated however that he would not be seeking the nomination. A "Draft Gore 2008" was launched mid-year but never gained much momentum.

Clinton & Edwards trade victories in the early primaries, Daschle finishes a strong 3rd each time. Dodd & Biden drop out after Iowa, Kucinich drops out after Florida.

Clinton wins 13 "Super Tuesday" primaries on 2-5-08, Edwards wins 5 and Daschle wins 4. Later that week the Edwards' campaign begins to implode - Edwards is turning angry and defensive amidst mounting criticism of his decision to persue the presidency while his wife is battleing terminal cancer and persistant rumors concerning his having an affair with campaign staffer Rielle Hunter. Public caustic comments made to a reporter in Maryland on February 10 and a profanity laced tirade during a campaign staff meeting which became public on February 14 mortally wound his campaign.

In the end, Hillary wins the nomination and selects Bill Richardson as her running mate.
 
Clinton & Edwards trade victories in the early primaries... Clinton wins 13 "Super Tuesday" primaries on 2-5-08, Edwards wins 5 and Daschle wins 4.

I have a hard time seeing Edwards come first in any primary other than Iowa, while I don't think Daschle will come first in any primary at all.

Hilary is just that inherently strong against all non-Obamas and non-Gores IMO.

Later that week the Edwards' campaign begins to implode - Edwards is turning angry and defensive amidst mounting criticism of his decision to persue the presidency while his wife is battleing terminal cancer and persistant rumors concerning his having an affair with campaign staffer Rielle Hunter. Public caustic comments made to a reporter in Maryland on February 10 and a profanity laced tirade during a campaign staff meeting which became public on February 14 mortally wound his campaign.

I think it's unnecessary for broad speculation to include this sort of fictional detail, particularly as OTL's Edwards kept all his private turmoil undercover (it's almost a fluke that the National Enquirer were finally able to nail him). He didn't crack up in public. I don't see why he should crack up just because he's moved from third place getter to being '08's version of Gary Hart's '84 campaign.
 
Am i the only one who thinks McCain wouldn't pick Palin? With Hillary failing to excite the base like Obama did I think McCain would've realized he needed a woman-friendly candidate, but he could still choose someone with considerable experience. I think we see McCain/Romney because Romney is appealing to women, young, and has experience
 
Hillary re-elected in 2012. In 2016, Senator Al Franken is elected 45th President of the United States. Bill O'Reilly commits ritual seppuku. As does Sean Hannity, Roger Ailes, Rush Limbaugh, Michael Savage, Brit Hume, and the entire cast of Fox and Friends. Karl Rove is lynched. By Republicans.:p


Please don't make silly, trollish posts in serious threads.
 
Am i the only one who thinks McCain wouldn't pick Palin? With Hillary failing to excite the base like Obama did I think McCain would've realized he needed a woman-friendly candidate, but he could still choose someone with considerable experience. I think we see McCain/Romney because Romney is appealing to women, young, and has experience

Do you think that Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic nomination?

I also don't believe that McCain would choose Palin in TTL. Presuming that McCain wins the Republican nomination (and I think he would), I imagine, depending on how the primaries unfold, that he'd choose someone like Ridge, Pawlenty, or possibly (as you suggest) Romney. Another good choice, one that I would doubt would come to pass, would be Condoleezza Rice.
 

iddt3

Donor
Would McCain even make the nomination? Didn't his campaign suffer a major implosion at some point? It just seems with those kind of up and downs his campaign is a great deal more chancy then Hillary's w/o Obama.
 
Would McCain even make the nomination? Didn't his campaign suffer a major implosion at some point? It just seems with those kind of up and downs his campaign is a great deal more chancy then Hillary's w/o Obama.

You're right. McCain threaded a very tough needle with a lot of luck. Romney couldn't win in Iowa. Guilaini had to not compete in New Hampshire. Huckabee had to be too broke to compete effectively in Florida. Fred Thompson had to stay in the race and prevent Huckabee winning South Carolina. Etc….
 
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