AET: 1968 & 72 w/ RFK

So I realize this general topic -- a PoD where Robert F Kennedy isn't killed -- that has been done near to death, but I wanted to ask some specific questions:
  1. Who wins the remaining Democratic primary in Illinois?
  2. If it is at least plausible for Bobby to secure the nomination at the convention (w/our PoD), what needs to happen?
  3. If these things do happen, how (if at all) does this specifically affect the way Nixon runs his campaign?
  4. Though it's generally assumed that RFK wins the general, is it at least plausible for Nixon to still win (given all the above)? What needs to happen for this to transpire?
  5. Is Nixon does manage to win in the above manner, how, if at all, is his (first) term different from OTL? Looking at it another way, how different can it be; for example, could de-escalation in Vietnam happen more quickly?
  6. Assuming Nixon wins and governs in the above manner, how do the 1972 Democratic Party primaries play out? If it makes a big difference, we might suppose that RFK died (or was out of commission) circa 1971 or so.
  7. Assuming yes to (4) and the rest of the above, how likely is it that Nixon can be defeated in his re-election bid?
  8. If, by contrast, we go with RFK winning, thensame questions, but for the Republican primaries and Bobby's re-election.
Look forward to responses.
 
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Zharques

Donor
In my view, if RFK wins primaries but loses the election to Nixon, he can make a solid run in '72, blaming the loss on a number of factors. OTL Humphrey made a solid go of it in '72, runner up to McGovern. If we assume RFK avoids convention troubles, the McGovern-Fraser commission might be delayed a few years too. If RFK makes it to the general '72 against Nixon I think RFK would really have it in the bag - make an issue of how either Nixon hasn't pulled out of Vietnam like he promised, or botching the pull out, depending on how Nixon's term goes.
 
I do not think RFK could have won in 1968.

LBJ loathed RFK and was obsessed with being seen as the "mistake between the Kennedys.

He would have done everything he needed to in order to insure RFK lost in 68
 
Even after California, the delegate math was really uphill for Kennedy. Jeff Greenfield does a fantastic job of going into detail about the specific hurdles RFK faced. Without giving away too much from Greenfield's AH plot, RFK would have to figure out how to overcome his massive delegate deficit in the south.

With regard to LBJ and RFK, LBJ certainly did not like Nixon, but throughout the primaries, he'd be doing everything he could to make sure his party doesn't nominate RFK.
 

Zharques

Donor
In '72 in the scenario I presented, McGovern's unlikely to get the nod, so his biggest competitors would most likely be HHH in the North and George Wallace in the South. Muskie likely would be a bit of a non starter. I personally think RFK would face a challenger in Eugene McCarthy, too.

Personally I think most in the North would be outflanked by RFK pulling the "remember how good things were when my brother was president" and a few things about continuing legacy, before launching into a "I'm my own man" phrase. The deep south would be lost to Wallace, though.
 
@creighton If Kennedy's biggest deficit in 1968 was in the south, how much could his friend Smathers help out? Could choosing the senator from Florida as his running mate, combined with efforts by Daley, do the trick?

@Zharques So the 1972 primaries would be between Kennedy and Humphrey, except in the south where Wallace (or someone like Wallace, if he ends up running as an independent again) holds sway; that right? If so, I imagine if RFK ends up out of commission (eg still dies tragically, but later than otl) that HHH would walk away with the nomination; thoughts?

CONSOLIDATE: More generally, who are the possible running mates in the noted elections? I've already mentioned Smathers as a possibility for RFK's VP in 68, but is Nixon now less likely to go with Agnew? And going into 1972, who would HHH (or whoever gets the challenging nomination) most likely pick?
 
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Zharques

Donor
Aye unlikely he gets past Wallace places like Alabama, Georgia, ect. in delegate even with a Southern running mate. Wallace would likely run as a Dixiecrat again, negating the Southern Strategy again. At the very best, if RFK had a running mate from the South, he's only likely to pick up Florida, Texas, and a few of the northern south states.

Nixon would likely dump Agnew if RFK is his opponent, no longer underestimating the reach of the Kennedy's. He would most likely try to outflank him in the South (most likely putting John Connally on the ticket), but if he tried in the North his most likely choice would be Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. But Connally is a much more likely choice.
 
Something related has been nagging me -- if Humphrey is elected to the presidency in his own right in 1972, there's a very good chance he still finds he has terminal cancer just a few years later, meaning he's not likely to serve a full second term, or possibly even decide not to run again; if the latter is the case, that throws the cat among the pigeons all over again for the 1976 presidential election.
 
Something related has been nagging me -- if Humphrey is elected to the presidency in his own right in 1972, there's a very good chance he still finds he has terminal cancer just a few years later, meaning he's not likely to serve a full second term, or possibly even decide not to run again; if the latter is the case, that throws the cat among the pigeons all over again for the 1976 presidential election.

I've thought about this scenario before, and while I sort of buy into the idea of the Presidency for the term from '77-'81 is as close as one can humanly get to cursed, whoever could probably get elected in '72 would be of the New Deal Consensus and run for re-election (unless you buy into the idea of the whole decade being cursed), leading to a major shake-up in '80 with an outgoing incumbent and a popular consciousness that wants something different.
 
I think RFK is very likely to lose the nomination to Humphrey (HHH had everything sown up pretty tight- while RFK and McCarthy were knocking each other in the primaries, he was quietly building support elsewhere). He'd have a strong chance of getting nominated in 1972 though, as a candidate who can win the support of the New Left whilst still being more palatable to the establishment then McGovern. He's certainly going to do better than McGovern but whether he can actually beat Nixon is an altogether trickier question.
 
I am trying to remember where I read that many of Southern Democratic leaders were going to back RFK at the convention in order to prevent the Wallaceites factions from taking over their state party organizations.
In the general election, RFK could have blunted the "Law and Order" appeal that Nixon was using against Humphrey and RFK did have support from the working white class that was drifting to Nixon and Wallace.
 
I think McCarthy's candidacy and LBJ hating RFK would mean Humphrey still gets the nomination. If RFK were able to get the nomination in '68 despite McCarthy and Johnson, I still think Nixon wins. Wallace would still run third party and I think the Democratic brand itself was too damaged for him to make up enough ground in the north to win. If Nixon's term goes the same as OTL, Bobby would be stupid to run in 1972, then again I wouldn't put it past him as the Kennedy's didn't always have the best instincts when it came to running for the Presidency (Bobby running in 1968 was dumb as it was an awful year for Dems and Teddy was stupid enough to sit 76 out and instead challenge an incumbent in 1980). My gut tells me if RFK lives, he runs and wins in 1976.
 
@dw93 Even if RFK tries again in 1972, would be get the nomination? While I do agree that him being nominated twice in a row won't be doing his party any favors, I do like the idea of Humphrey (or a different Democrat) defeating Nixon's reelection efforts.
 
The main issue with an RFK run was that the convention was decided by the party machines. If he did run, LBJ wouldn't work like hell for him in Texas (like he did for HHH). Either Nixon or Wallace wins in the state.

RFK in 1972 is interesting; even if he doesn't get the nomination he's the frontrunner. John Connally (assuming he doesn't switch) and George Wallace would run (along with some other New Dealers), but RFK would take the nomination. He'd still lose to Nixon (unless there's a Wallace third party run or some scandals), but by a much more respectable margin.
 
@dw93 Even if RFK tries again in 1972, would be get the nomination? While I do agree that him being nominated twice in a row won't be doing his party any favors, I do like the idea of Humphrey (or a different Democrat) defeating Nixon's reelection efforts.
McGovern-Fraser might still happen, so that alone could stop him from getting the nomination in 1972 as it did Humphrey. As for defeating Nixon, if Nixon's term goes similarly to OTL, I doubt a different nominee in 1972 would make the difference on the overall outcome, although a different nominee would fair better than McGovern. What would interest me is if Bobby wins in 1976, how much better than Carter does he do in dealing with the shit show that was the 77-81 term? How badly would a failed one term President Robert Kennedy tarnish the family name/brand/legacy?
 
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