Additional non-White countries which could have expanded in the 1850-1914 time frame?

CaliGuy

Banned
In our TL, Japan and Ethiopia were able to not only maintain their independence in the 1850-1914 time frame (during the late Age of Imperialism), but also managed to expand their own territory during this time:

Japanese_Empire2.png


ethiopia.jpg


Anyway, my question here is this--exactly which additional non-White (and outside of the New World/Americas, of course) countries could have realistically not only retained their independence, but also expanded in the 1850-1914 time period?

Also, for the record, I myself think that Egypt is one such contender; after all, they already managed to expand in the late 19th century in our TL and had sufficiently smart leadership in the form of Muhammad Ali:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ec/Egypt_under_Muhammad_Ali_Dynasty_map_en.png

Thus, with a continuation of more competent leadership and perhaps better luck as well, it might have been possible for Egypt to formally acquire independence from the Ottoman Empire as well as to both continue expanding and to avoid becoming colonized/conquered by the Europeans (specifically by the British).

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 

Deleted member 67076

The Ottoman empire, the Zanzibari Sultanate, a modernized China, the Sokoto Caliphate and Thailand are all states that I can think of having the potential for expansion in the time period youre thinking of.
 

ben0628

Banned
Already mentioned nations:

1) Ottoman Empire: Could have expanded at any time during the multiple wars it fought in this time period.
2) Zanzibar/Oman: Could have expanded further into Africa during the 1850's, 1860's, and 1870's however it would still be annexed by Great Britain and other European nations during the Scramble for Africa.
3) Qing/Post Qing China: Could have expanded in a few different directions if it played its cards right.
4) Other Sub-Saharan African States (Sokoto Caliphate, Dahomey, Zulu, etc.): Like Zanzibar, they could have expanded but by the 1890's they would have been annexed by European countries.
5) Thailand: I don't know.

Some that haven't been mentioned:

6) Korea
7) Afghanistan
8) Egypt
9) Iran
 
5) Thailand

Thailand has the nasty problem of running up against Britain and France in any direction they go. There's a very narrow window of opportunity. Probably means expanding into Burma/Shan States and/or further into the Malay Peninsula against Britain or regaining lost land (modern Laos) against France/expanding into Cambodia.

And Korea could gain Gando from China (with the help of either Japan or Russia, of course), and also be able to avoid annexation.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
The Ottoman empire,

When exactly are you thinking of here?

the Zanzibari Sultanate,

More details, please!

a modernized China,

How exactly do you realistically get China to modernize that early, though?

the Sokoto Caliphate

How exactly do you get the Sokoto Caliphate to continue expanding after the mid-1830s, though?

Also, can the Sokoto Caliphate avoid getting colonized afterwards?

In addition to this, what about the Toucouleur Empire?

and Thailand are all states that I can think of having the potential for expansion in the time period youre thinking of.

How exactly and where exactly would Thailand expand considering that it lost a lot of territory during this time? :

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/45/Siam_territoral_losses.gif

Siam_territoral_losses.gif
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Already mentioned nations:

1) Ottoman Empire: Could have expanded at any time during the multiple wars it fought in this time period.

Wasn't the Ottoman Empire already declining during this time, though?

2) Zanzibar/Oman: Could have expanded further into Africa during the 1850's, 1860's, and 1870's however it would still be annexed by Great Britain and other European nations during the Scramble for Africa.

Where exactly in(to) Africa would it have expanded, though?

Also, could it have avoided getting colonized by the European Powers afterwards?

3) Qing/Post Qing China: Could have expanded in a few different directions if it played its cards right.

More details, please!

4) Other Sub-Saharan African States (Sokoto Caliphate, Dahomey, Zulu, etc.): Like Zanzibar, they could have expanded but by the 1890's they would have been annexed by European countries.

What about the Toucouleur Empire, though?

Also, is there any way to prevent them from getting colonized by the European Powers afterwards?

5) Thailand: I don't know.

Thailand lost a lot of territory to Britain and France during this time in our TL, though; thus, how exactly would you get it to expand?

Some that haven't been mentioned:

6) Korea

You mean Gando?

7) Afghanistan

It did expand north in our TL but also lost a lot of territory in the south to Britain; indeed, how exactly do you get rid of these territorial losses?


Already mentioned. :)


Where exactly, though?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Thailand has the nasty problem of running up against Britain and France in any direction they go. There's a very narrow window of opportunity. Probably means expanding into Burma/Shan States and/or further into the Malay Peninsula against Britain or regaining lost land (modern Laos) against France/expanding into Cambodia.

When exactly is the best time for any Thai expansion, though?

Also, why exactly didn't Britain and France reduce Thailand to its ethnic borders (as in, all of the ethnic Thai areas/territories but nothing else/more)? :

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...x-Ethnolinguistic_groups_of_Thailand_1974.png

450px-Ethnolinguistic_groups_of_Thailand_1974.png


And Korea could gain Gando from China (with the help of either Japan or Russia, of course), and also be able to avoid annexation.

You mean had the Russo-Japanese War been completely avoided?
 

Zachariah

Banned
I'd also add the Merina Kingdom of Madagascar, thanks largely to Jean Laborde's groundwork as the chief engineer of the Merina monarchy, supervising the creation of a modern manufacturing center under Queen Ranavalona I, and establishing a military industrial complex, with the help of five other Europeans. They had no imported machinery beyond simple blacksmith's tools and no documents, but within 6 years, by 1840, he had constructed blast furnaces with waterwheel-powered draught producing cast iron, puddling mills producing wrought iron, a steeling plant producing spring steel, a glassworks, brickworks and cement-plant, a heavy foundry capable of producing 24-pound cannons, a musket factory, a gunpowder mill, a tower to make lead shot, and textile mills- in doing so, ending the kingdom's dependence on Europe for modern weaponry. Laborde also opened up mines, roads, and bridges in various parts of the island. He built ox and horse wagons and a short horse-drawn stretch of railway. Perhaps if Radama II hadn't announced his intention to allow disputes to be settled by duels in the European manner, much to the disapproval of many of his advisers at court who feared the practice would lead to anarchy, leading to a military coup d'etea known as the Aristocratic Revolution on the following day, by the Prime Minister and his brother (the head of the Malagasy Army), which resulted in the public executions of every member of his progressive entourage by impalement, as well as Radama II's execution by strangulation.

Perhaps if Radama II had backed down on this matter, taken things more slowly and had managed to consolidate his reign over time, the Merina Kingdom could have remained independent and uncolonized, by exploiting the rivalry and tension between the French and British in the same way that Thailand did; making the 'territorial gains' of fully integrating the small portions of the island which weren't technically under their administration yet in 1850, along with persuading the sultanates of the two largest islands in the Comoros, Mohéli and Ngazidja (aka Grande Comore) to place the then Malagasy-speaking islands under Malagasy protection (instead of French protection as they did in 1886). From there, depending on how early they managed to do so, they could potentially steal the march on the British and/or Germans by fighting a war against the Sultanate of Zanzibar over the Zanj Coast and the African Great Lakes region; which would probably develop into a proxy war of sorts, with the British and French supporting the Merina Kingdom and the Germans supporting the Sultanate of Zanzibar. With the disparity in population, size, military and industrial capacity, the Malagasy would be almost guaranteed to win; and though the French and British would probably end up dividing most of the spoils on the mainland between themselves, especially further inland, the Merina would still at the very least add South-East Tanganyika to its territories. And they'd be in a very favorable position to make further gains in the East African Theater of WWI after 1914.
 
A Philippines that gains its independence in the early 19th century like the rest of the Spanish Empire, whatever its government, could take bits and pieces from the Dutch East Indies. :p
 
I'd also add the Merina Kingdom of Madagascar, thanks largely to Jean Laborde's groundwork as the chief engineer of the Merina monarchy, supervising the creation of a modern manufacturing center under Queen Ranavalona I, and establishing a military industrial complex, with the help of five other Europeans. They had no imported machinery beyond simple blacksmith's tools and no documents, but within 6 years, by 1840, he had constructed blast furnaces with waterwheel-powered draught producing cast iron, puddling mills producing wrought iron, a steeling plant producing spring steel, a glassworks, brickworks and cement-plant, a heavy foundry capable of producing 24-pound cannons, a musket factory, a gunpowder mill, a tower to make lead shot, and textile mills- in doing so, ending the kingdom's dependence on Europe for modern weaponry. Laborde also opened up mines, roads, and bridges in various parts of the island. He built ox and horse wagons and a short horse-drawn stretch of railway. Perhaps if Radama II hadn't announced his intention to allow disputes to be settled by duels in the European manner, much to the disapproval of many of his advisers at court who feared the practice would lead to anarchy, leading to a military coup d'etea known as the Aristocratic Revolution on the following day, by the Prime Minister and his brother (the head of the Malagasy Army), which resulted in the public executions of every member of his progressive entourage by impalement, as well as Radama II's execution by strangulation.

Perhaps if Radama II had backed down on this matter, taken things more slowly and had managed to consolidate his reign over time, the Merina Kingdom could have remained independent and uncolonized, by exploiting the rivalry and tension between the French and British in the same way that Thailand did; making the 'territorial gains' of fully integrating the small portions of the island which weren't technically under their administration yet in 1850, along with persuading the sultanates of the two largest islands in the Comoros, Mohéli and Ngazidja (aka Grande Comore) to place the then Malagasy-speaking islands under Malagasy protection (instead of French protection as they did in 1886). From there, depending on how early they managed to do so, they could potentially steal the march on the British and/or Germans by fighting a war against the Sultanate of Zanzibar over the Zanj Coast and the African Great Lakes region; which would probably develop into a proxy war of sorts, with the British and French supporting the Merina Kingdom and the Germans supporting the Sultanate of Zanzibar. With the disparity in population, size, military and industrial capacity, the Malagasy would be almost guaranteed to win; and though the French and British would probably end up dividing most of the spoils on the mainland between themselves, especially further inland, the Merina would still at the very least add South-East Tanganyika to its territories. And they'd be in a very favorable position to make further gains in the East African Theater of WWI after 1914.

Oh my. This looks like an interesting idea. And one I've never seen before. An Empire of Madagascar.
 
In our TL, Japan and Ethiopia were able to not only maintain their independence in the 1850-1914 time frame (during the late Age of Imperialism), but also managed to expand their own territory during this time:

Japanese_Empire2.png


ethiopia.jpg


Anyway, my question here is this--exactly which additional non-White (and outside of the New World/Americas, of course) countries could have realistically not only retained their independence, but also expanded in the 1850-1914 time period?

Also, for the record, I myself think that Egypt is one such contender; after all, they already managed to expand in the late 19th century in our TL and had sufficiently smart leadership in the form of Muhammad Ali:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ec/Egypt_under_Muhammad_Ali_Dynasty_map_en.png

Thus, with a continuation of more competent leadership and perhaps better luck as well, it might have been possible for Egypt to formally acquire independence from the Ottoman Empire as well as to both continue expanding and to avoid becoming colonized/conquered by the Europeans (specifically by the British).

Anyway, any thoughts on this?

Dahomey Kingdom, Zulu, Mali Songhai & Solinke , Abyssinia
 
Persia/Iran made some attempts to expand into modern Afghanistan (especially Herat, several times) during the 19th century, but the British viewed them as too close to Russia and forced them to withdraw each time. Avoid the Great Game dominating British strategic thinking or draw Persia closer to Britain, and you could avoid that.

Going the other way, Afghanistan also has potential.
 

Deleted member 67076

When exactly are you thinking of here?
Couple of timelines have done the Ottomans bouncing back after winning the 1876-77 Russo Turkish War due to better administrative planning and the prevention of the assassination of their defense minister. From there on industrialization takes place and allows the empire to both reintegrate Egypt (Which was not entirely independent in name only until the 1880s) and push forth into the Sahara.

More details, please!
Zanzibar was already expanding deep into Africa under the guidance of leaders such as Tippu Tip. If, the split between Oman and Zanzibar was avoided, and/or the Scramble for Africa is avoided or blunted, then what is now the East African community (With a bit of Eastern Congo such as the Kivus and the former Katangan province) would be under Omani control, settled by a class of of Arab, Indian, and Muslim landlords over the native population in a near feudal style of rule.

How exactly do you realistically get China to modernize that early, though?
Either change the Qing leadership (someone has done a timeline on this) or end the Qing regime and replace it with one more friendly to industrialization.


How exactly do you get the Sokoto Caliphate to continue expanding after the mid-1830s, though?
Avoid the Scramble for Africa and prevent the reign of Adbur Rahman Atiku (who had no sense of diplomacy). Sokoto was already revolutionizing its the administrative-bureaucratic structures, supplemented with growing economical strength and the ability to mass produce rifles and field large armies at home. Its population was around 12-15 million and growing due to improvements

If you avoid the British conquest, the rest of the Sahel is prime game for conquest. Like, from Segou to Cameroon.

Also, can the Sokoto Caliphate avoid getting colonized afterwards?
Easily so, it'd make for an excellent buffer state. Nor am I one to believe the Scramble was preordained by and large. It was a result from an economic depression in the 1870s and thus a desire for captive markets, and for the notion of colonies = prestige. Even then, all colonies except for German Togo and the Belgian Congo were net losses in profit. Additionally, colonization schemes were unpopular with the European Left, and at some points the European Right (who in at least the French case hated how the governments treated the natives out of some weird Orientalist like for their traditional culture) It would be easy to conceive of a situation where colonization gives way to vassal states as that's both the cheaper and more efficient option.

In addition to this, what about the Toucouleur Empire?
In massive decline after 1860. The French were able to pick it apart during the 1880s

How exactly and where exactly would Thailand expand considering that it lost a lot of territory during this time?
I'd assume by changing its government and finding itself a third patron to balance Britain and France. And after modernization, sweep in to take back its land during a war where either of the powers is occupied.[/QUOTE]
 
Besides the above, here are three more countries that may be wanked if you play your cards right:

1.) Aceh: This sultanate was a spice and coffee exporter during the 1800's and had it's independance supported by a system of redundancy (protected by both the British and the Ottomans, as well as being courted by Italy. Look up Nino Bixio and Celso Cesare Moreno). BUT, it got it's protection status revoked in a series of treaties regarding British/Dutch spheres of influence and fell after a decades-long colonial campaign. The Ottomans didn't help them whatsoever.

If you want it, you can make the Acehnese play-off multiple sides while trying to aquire weapons and resources for either modernize or prepare for the inevitable. You can also get the Ottomans to help in some way.

2.) Johor: 1800's Johor was another sultanate that could have had multiple futures. It's ruler during the late 1800's (Temenggung Abu Bakar) was an Anglophile who financed his state's modernization on his fortunes based on plantations of pepper, gambier and other spices. He encourgaed Chinese immigration to Johor to oversee the cash crops (which had the side-effect of making Johor a minority-majority sultanate) and even got so far as promulgating a constitution and having his nation participate in the Universal Exhibitons of France and the U.S.

But, he died and his dissolute son took over the throne, with the treasury empty. But even then, it took the British till WWI to fully put the state under their control. Make Abu Bakar live longer or have a better son, or make him create a central bank or finance board, and Johor might just slip through London's fingers. Tho British influence may still hang around till the end of the Empire.

And if really want to be ambitious...

Brooke Sarawak: This is a very borderline case as the state was basically founded by James Brooke, an adventurer with military experience who, with skill, influence, and sheer dumb luck, carved a kingdom for himself and his family in Borneo. Lasting from 1841 till the 1941 Japanese invasion, Sarawak was an... odd state where local traders were predominant and only one foreign company traded directly with the state. But the Brookes weirdly took their "protector of the natives" role seriously (the White Rajahs often led Dayak war campaigns at the helm) it did hold out till the 1880's when it requested for British Protectorate status, and even then the Brookes had free internal reign till the end.

Make Charles Brooke decide not to aquire protectorate status, or just make him sign a military/naval alliance with the British (the family had DEEP connections with the Royal Navy, dating back to James Brooke's stint with the colours), and you get a White Rajah state overseen by a Malay civil service and defended by Dayaks well into the 20th century.
 
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Zachariah

Banned
Another suggestion which hasn't been put forward yet- Morocco. IOTL, we saw the Hispano-Moroccan War (1859–60); a dispute over Spain's Ceuta enclave, along with the perceived weakness of the Moroccans in losing the first Franco-Moroccan War in 1844 and signing the Anglo-Moroccan treaty of Friendship in 1856, led Spain to declare war. Ignoring Britain's pleas for a peaceful settlement, the Spaniards invaded Morocco, drove the Sultan's army back to the city of Tétouan, and won the ensuing battle to capture the city. Victorious, Spain won a further enclave (Ifni), an enlarged Ceuta and Melilla, and war reparations of 20 million duros (Peseta) as part of the settlement, one which the British pressured both the Moroccans & Spanish to accept under the threat of intervention. But what if the Moroccans had won the Hispano-Moroccan War- either on their own, or through the help of their allies, the British and perhaps even the Americans, who they'd also had their Moroccan–American Treaty of Friendship with for almost a century by this point? Mightn't the Moroccans have potentially retaken Ceuta and Melilla, with their increased military strength and prestige perhaps enabling them to extend their claim further south into Western Sahara and Mauritania? And a proper Moroccan-American alliance could be extremely useful for both parties when the Spanish-American War (which had been festering since the early 1870s IOTL) and/or 2nd Hispano-Moroccan War kicks off (since the Spaniards would definitely be coming back for round 2 if they'd lost territory to the Moors). The USA could take Cuba, Puerto Rico, Guam and the Philippines, while Morocco could take the Canary Islands and any remnants of Spanish Africa. This could also drive the Spaniards into WW1 alongside the Central Powers, with the Moroccans firmly entrenched as an ally of the British and Americans- and perhaps even the French, given that the First Franco-Moroccan War was fought over Morocco's alliance with and support for the anti-colonial Algerian leader Emir Abdelkader, and that Abdelkader himself became a "friend of France" within the space of 15 years. So WW1 would be more finely poised than it was IOTL; but if they and the Entente won, then Morocco could benefit greatly from the collapses of both Spain and the Ottoman Empire, as the most culturally compatible candidate to administer at least one of the Class A LoN mandates.
 
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CaliGuy

Banned

I'd also add the Merina Kingdom of Madagascar, thanks largely to Jean Laborde's groundwork as the chief engineer of the Merina monarchy, supervising the creation of a modern manufacturing center under Queen Ranavalona I, and establishing a military industrial complex, with the help of five other Europeans. They had no imported machinery beyond simple blacksmith's tools and no documents, but within 6 years, by 1840, he had constructed blast furnaces with waterwheel-powered draught producing cast iron, puddling mills producing wrought iron, a steeling plant producing spring steel, a glassworks, brickworks and cement-plant, a heavy foundry capable of producing 24-pound cannons, a musket factory, a gunpowder mill, a tower to make lead shot, and textile mills- in doing so, ending the kingdom's dependence on Europe for modern weaponry. Laborde also opened up mines, roads, and bridges in various parts of the island. He built ox and horse wagons and a short horse-drawn stretch of railway. Perhaps if Radama II hadn't announced his intention to allow disputes to be settled by duels in the European manner, much to the disapproval of many of his advisers at court who feared the practice would lead to anarchy, leading to a military coup d'etea known as the Aristocratic Revolution on the following day, by the Prime Minister and his brother (the head of the Malagasy Army), which resulted in the public executions of every member of his progressive entourage by impalement, as well as Radama II's execution by strangulation.

Three questions:

1. In spite of her support for some modernization, wasn't Ranavalona I hostile to excessive European influence in Madagascar?
2. Who would have become the monarch of Madagascar had Radama died before his planned coronation? Also, how exactly would this have affected Madagascar's history?
3. Did Madagascar stagnate after Radama's execution, or what?

Perhaps if Radama II had backed down on this matter, taken things more slowly and had managed to consolidate his reign over time, the Merina Kingdom could have remained independent and uncolonized, by exploiting the rivalry and tension between the French and British in the same way that Thailand did; making the 'territorial gains' of fully integrating the small portions of the island which weren't technically under their administration yet in 1850, along with persuading the sultanates of the two largest islands in the Comoros, Mohéli and Ngazidja (aka Grande Comore) to place the then Malagasy-speaking islands under Malagasy protection (instead of French protection as they did in 1886).

Two questions:

1. Didn't Britain lose interest in Madagascar after the construction of the Suez Canal?
2. Had Madagascar continued to honor the Lambert Charter, would it have permanently retained its independence?

From there, depending on how early they managed to do so, they could potentially steal the march on the British and/or Germans by fighting a war against the Sultanate of Zanzibar over the Zanj Coast and the African Great Lakes region; which would probably develop into a proxy war of sorts, with the British and French supporting the Merina Kingdom and the Germans supporting the Sultanate of Zanzibar. With the disparity in population, size, military and industrial capacity, the Malagasy would be almost guaranteed to win; and though the French and British would probably end up dividing most of the spoils on the mainland between themselves, especially further inland, the Merina would still at the very least add South-East Tanganyika to its territories. And they'd be in a very favorable position to make further gains in the East African Theater of WWI after 1914.

Question--wouldn't it have been smarter for the Merina to focus on defending Madagascar rather than on expanding? After all, the French would still want to conquer Madagascar whenever possible, no?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, thank you very much for bringing up the topic of Madagascar, Zachariah! :) Frankly, based on what I have just read about Madagascar up to 1895, I am honestly wondering if, with the right leadership, Madagascar could have eventually become Africa's equivalent of Meiji Japan for Asia.

Indeed, any thoughts on this?
 
It technically ended in 1849, but Ranjit Signh's Sikh Empire was close to the time frame you want, had a powerful economy and military, and with a more orderly succession could have become a formidable power on the subcontinent, perhaps expanding into Balochistan.
 
Madagascar's issues are, of course, is the backwardness of the country, the low population, the relative lack of industrial resources such as coal and the complete disunity of the island before the 19th century. It's a great shame, as a Meiji Madagascar is a cool concept, just not very likely.

Really, you have to look at places with areas of high population density, as these areas would have the commercial basis to develop quickly into a capitalist economy under the right conditions. The Yangtze Delta in China stands out as the obvious candidate, with a per-capita income roughly equivalent to Britain's in the 18th century, a population of 30 million and trade links across much of China and South East Asia.

What else stand out as good candidates? Certainly, the Bengal Region could be a serious contender under the right circumstances. If the British can be prevented from gaining the area in the mid 18th century, not only with British Imperialism likely be stalled in the rest of India, but the Bengal would have a good chance to develop. Under different circumstances, Egypt could prove to be another contender, though the problem with all of these regions is a lack of industrial resources. Unfortunately, areas of the non-European world where coal is easily found tend to be relatively sparsely populated (such as Iran).

As a bonus, I would argue that the Chao Phraya Basin in Thailand could potentially be more populated in a world where the Burmese invasions are not repeated. Even today, the fertility of the area allows Thailand to be the world's biggest rice exporter. With different conditions, could it give Thailand the population density for a far more commercially focused economy? I'd definitely be interested in a scenario like that. Thailand's main problem of course, is that the areas that were taken from it were nearly all non-Thai in population. Indeed, Thailand was left with significant areas with non-Thai populations, including Muslim Malay populations in the South even today.
 
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