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Following Kansas, the the loss of faith of the deep south in the ability to advance or protect their perceived interests through the "National Party", and particularly the selection of the "traitor" Douglas in the national convention, the deep southern representatives bolted and ran Breckenridge for president.

With the democratic vote splintered Lincoln, who won only 40% of the popular vote had the election handed to him.

For the sake of this scenario let's assume that Douglas, or some other northern democratic leader, manages to straddle the fence over Kansas without burning himself over with either the deep south or his constituency in his home state. Let us further assume that Breckenridge, or some other southern leader (Hunter for instance) with a adamant pro-slavery record (And secessionist record OTL) is his vice president. Let us assume that the election is hotly disputed, with the result hinging on vote counts in Illinois and Indiana where the "Wide Awakes" and "Douglas Minutemen" violently clash and certain polling stations are burned, and that a demand for a recount/revote causes the whole process to be determined in the (Democrat packed) supreme court. Finally, let us assume that after winning a hotly disputed election (Doable if the West Coast, Illinois and Indiana flip) Douglas contacts typhoid fever, as OTL, and the presidency goes to his southern fire breathing vice president.

(Never mind that the first seems impossible and the fourth butterflied away. This is a thought exercise, not a TL)

What next?

How will the Republican party leadership and individual Northern States react? If matters escalate to, for example, New England, New York and Pennsylvania passing nullification laws on the fugitive slave act or in some other way disregarding the federal government might a Southern President be tempted to try to push them out of the Union? Can he?
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