ACW in a Mex-Wank TL

[DuQuense]

I'd start with no Treaty of San Ifenando [sp] giving Louisiana back to France. This keeps Louisiana Spanish.
Spanish American War of 1804~05 is ended by the Treaty of London. US gains Florida, along with New Orleans and Environs. Spain keeps rest of Louisiana.
Spain wins in 1819, and the revolution appears over. Lots of French & Spanish Trouble Makers [Republicans] emigrate [involuntary] to Mexico and SAmerica
Then in the mid 1820's Bolivar and Friends start in SAmerica, and it spreads again to Mexico.
Several years later the Mexicans win, Lead by a Mexican - George Washington Figure - However , this is a true Victory, instead of the Buyout Victory of OTL 1819.
While the Spanish Loyalists flee, there is no need for Mexico to Bankrupt itself, paying off the Spanish Dons.
Mexico then establishes something like the '24 Constitution, only more stable due to having money [instead of debt] in the Treasury.
In the 1850's Canada & Mexico establish the northern border across Louisiana at the 4x th Parallel.
With out the Western Lands to expand into the US is constrained to east of the Mississippi, and Mexico receives a lot more Immigrants than OTL.
Mexico also has the moneys to pay it's Soldiers, so Mexican forces patrol and prevent attempts by Immigrating Americans to expand Slavery into Mexican Texas and Louisiana.
While Favoring the North, Mexico maintains Neutrality in the American Civil War. While getting rich, Selling Cotton from the cotton Fields of Texas & Arkansas.
.

So the USA is confined to East of the Mississippi and south of the Lakes/St Laurence, except for a very small area around New Orleans/ Mississippi Delta.
?How and When goes the American Civil War?


Assume the same 1840's Irish/German Immigration into Boston, New York and New Orleans.

The First Army of the US v Sioux battle took place in Missouri 1824. Won't happen ITTL.
If Crockett & Houston et al, immigrate to Texas, it will be as good Future Mexicans.
No Oklahoma to Move the Five Civilized Tribes into. Any clearing or Trail of tears will probably be pushing them into South Florida.
Except No Jackson as Hero of the Greek War 1812, or Defender of New Orleans, so probably no President Jackson.
No Louisiana Territory so all States are established by the 1830's with no New territory to Expand into, or form states out of. Frontier closed by 1840.

 

[jycee]

So the USA is confined to East of the Mississippi and south of the Lakes/St Laurence, except for a very small area around New Orleans/ Mississippi Delta.
?How and When goes the American Civil War?


Assume the same 1840's Irish/German Immigration into Boston, New York and New Orleans.

The First Army of the US v Sioux battle took place in Missouri 1824. Won't happen ITTL.
If Crockett & Houston et al, immigrate to Texas, it will be as good Future Mexicans.
No Oklahoma to Move the Five Civilized Tribes into. Any clearing or Trail of tears will probably be pushing them into South Florida.
Except No Jackson as Hero of the Greek War 1812, or Defender of New Orleans, so probably no President Jackson.
No Louisiana Territory so all States are established by the 1830's with no New territory to Expand into, or form states out of. Frontier closed by 1840.

With all these butterflies a Civil War as in OTL is very unlikely. Furthermore if Mexico is stable and wanked, why would the Irish go to the US? Early wanked Mexico means paradise for many Catholics.

 

[robertp6165]

So the USA is confined to East of the Mississippi and south of the Lakes/St Laurence, except for a very small area around New Orleans/ Mississippi Delta.
?How and When goes the American Civil War?


Assume the same 1840's Irish/German Immigration into Boston, New York and New Orleans.

The First Army of the US v Sioux battle took place in Missouri 1824. Won't happen ITTL.
If Crockett & Houston et al, immigrate to Texas, it will be as good Future Mexicans.
No Oklahoma to Move the Five Civilized Tribes into. Any clearing or Trail of tears will probably be pushing them into South Florida.
Except No Jackson as Hero of the Greek War 1812, or Defender of New Orleans, so probably no President Jackson.
No Louisiana Territory so all States are established by the 1830's with no New territory to Expand into, or form states out of. Frontier closed by 1840.

There won't be a Civil War. The Civil War grew out of stresses which came about because of the acquisition of territory west of the Mississippi...first through the Louisiana Purchase, then later by the Mexican Cession. In this ATL there is no such territory, and no conflict between the sections over the expansion of slavery into them. The "Free Soil" movement never comes into being in the North, and the Abolitionists remain a tiny, radical fringe movement there.

In order to maintain the balance of free and slave States, the territories in the South, west of the Carolinas and Georgia, will likely be divided into smaller subunits before admission as States. So you may have, for example, two smaller States where Alabama is now, and two where Mississippi is now, plus East and West Florida, which would give 14 Slave States to match against the 14 Free States north of the Ohio River. Or, if Florida never is annexed for some reason, Tennessee could be divided into East and West Tennessee.

Alternatively, Maine might not be allowed to split off from Massachusetts, which would mean only 13 Free States, and less splitting up of Southern territories to compensate.

You probably end up with a U.S. that looks something like this (the map assumes the territories north of the Ohio are admitted as States per OTl, with the exception that the strip of territory in northwestern Minnesota which was ceded to the US by the Treaty of Paris in 1783 is attached to Wisconsin, and no State of Minnesota is ever created).