ACW: Grant instead of Pope for Second Manassas

[kaijudirector]

This is a little idea I had since I am reading John J. Hennessy's Return to Bull Run (an excellent read by the way, 100% would recommend). What if Grant went East instead of Pope?

My idea for the POD is a slightly different Shiloh, where Grant doesn’t mess up on Day 1 (perhaps staying put at Pittsburgh Landing, or a stronger recon finding Johnston’s army). With this, the stain of Grant being caught with his pants down is nonexistent. Grant is not punished into becoming Halleck’s figurehead number two.

Grant and Halleck are sent east after Corinth falls (assuming Halleck still takes personal command during the siege of course). Halleck becomes Union Commander-in-Chief as per OTL, and Grant becomes commander of the Army of Virginia on June 26, when OTL Pope took command.

Jackson’s Valley Campaign is of course mostly over and Grant has to work with the remainder of the Army of the Shenandoah, now reorganized into I, II, and III Corps as the Army of Virginia. Grant can expect reinforcements from McLellan but of course, it’s a slow time coming. Still, I doubt Grant will be that restless, but I don’t think he will be foolish as Pope was (of course we have OTL Cold Harbor to prove that he wasn’t the most subtle military commander in history). Grant will probably have to work with a string of not-so-competent commanders and demoralized men, but at least he won’t be making grandiose speeches that overhype him (at least publicly).

So with that in mind, how do things turn out now? Could he strike at a recently-exhausted Stonewall on the Rapidan (remember, he was burnt out during the Seven Days) and somehow prevail? Would he fall for Lee sending Jackson to Manassas (Grant not having an extra year to study Lee or earn experience at Vicksburg and Chattanooga) or fall for another trap? Or would Halleck end up looming over Grant (he didn't do much to rein Pope in but still, it could happen)?

As a side note, it would also be interesting to speculate what will become of the Army of the Tennessee. Pope could take over since he’s still in the west in this scenario, but perhaps Grant could ask if Sherman would take command instead. Perhaps Pope takes over for a while, screws up badly somewhere on the road to Vicksburg, and then Sherman takes over. Or perhaps Pope takes over from Buell and then screws up somewhere else in Tennessee.

 

[jmc247]

The Army of Northern Virginia was in better shape in 1862 then it was in two years later. At the same time the Union Army in the East was less seasoned then they would be two years later.

Grant by 1864 was the beneficiary of a better army then existed previously and still things were near disaster for him at various points.

 

[kaijudirector]

The Army of Northern Virginia was in better shape in 1862 then it was in two years later. At the same time the Union Army in the East was less seasoned then they would be two years later.

Grant by 1864 was the beneficiary of a better army then existed previously and still things were near disaster for him at various points.

Exactly. I mentioned a few points that Grant doesn't have the experience and the time to study Lee as he had IRL. Still, again, would be interesting to see what Grant will do despite it. Besides, there were a few close calls despite the inexperience of Union troops in the East. Think of Kernstown and how Kimball managed to beat Stonewall. Plus, Stonewall almost lost at Cedar Mountain at the start of the OTL Second Manassas campaign, so I guess anything can still happen.

 

[Elfwine]

One probably significant point in Grant's favor over Pope's, besides Grant as a better general: Grant is not likely to rub people the wrong way the way Pope did, which is not of small value.

I am not sure if he'd win, but I certainly think the situation is going to go better for the Union, all things being even. Wagering on more of a bloody stalemate instead of driving Pope from the field.

 

[kaijudirector]

I am not sure if he'd win, but I certainly think the situation is going to go better for the Union, all things being even. Wagering on more of a bloody stalemate instead of driving Pope from the field.

Then I assume we’re still getting the “he fights” quote from Lincoln.

Grant could get seconded (no pun intended) to McLellan’s overall command in that case. The Maryland campaign could still happen but if Grant has some level of command during the prelude I think he could do definitely do more. Perhaps he could push for striking Lee while he’s separated if the special order cigars are still found (and Grant will probably smoke them himself) or have a go at it himself without asking higher authority (unlikely but probably possible) If it still comes down to a showdown at Antietam we might get a Day 2. And assuming it still ends in a stalemate with Mac refusing to release the reserves, then the AOTP has a new commander heading into winter…

That could also lead into an interesting aftermath. I can see Grant going for either Fredericksburg or the Wilderness. IMO Fredericksburg could have been avoided if Burnside wasn’t so facilitating and Chancellorsville could have been won if Hooker had not lost his nerve.

 

[Elfwine]

I'm not sure you would still get a Maryland campaign here (and thus what follows from there). A bloody stalemate at Bull Run, with troops coming from the Army of the Potomac leaves Lee with a rather serious "Well. Grant is still here." problem. The Army of Virginia isn't a non-issue falling back to Washington here.

So that leaves the question of "Now what?" before we even get to Antietam Creek.

 

[kaijudirector]

I'm not sure you would still get a Maryland campaign here (and thus what follows from there). A bloody stalemate at Bull Run, with troops coming from the Army of the Potomac leaves Lee with a rather serious "Well. Grant is still here." problem. The Army of Virginia isn't a non-issue falling back to Washington here.

So that leaves the question of "Now what?" before we even get to Antietam Creek.

Lee would still need to feed his troops though. Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t he also imagine feeding the AONV off the Maryland harvest? Maybe he winters in the Shenandoah if he doesn’t decide to march North?

 

[Elfwine]

I know Lee wanetd to move the war north of the Potomac as far as the harvest goes, but that makes dealing with Grant more decisively than "stalemate" likely a "Okay, but how?" dilemma.

If he winters in the Shenandoah, he's leaving Grant free in northern Virginia for all sorts of Not Fun For Virginia fun. This is not a great scenario for Lee.

 

[jmc247]

Lee would still need to feed his troops though. Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t he also imagine feeding the AOTP off the Maryland harvest? Maybe he winters in the Shenandoah if he doesn’t decide to march North?

The Shenandoah kept full starvation for the army from setting in of the kind they experienced at the end, but to keep Virginia fed and avoid the bread riots like Richmond suffered in ‘63 they needed to get at the foodstuffs of MD or PA.

 

[rob2001]

You know I always found it strange how those orders were found. As if someone deliberately left them there. I mean who wraps them around a pair of cigars and put them in envelope like that.

 

[kaijudirector]

You know I always found it strange how those orders were found. As if someone deliberately left them there. I mean who wraps them around a pair of cigars and put them in envelope like that.

Just one of those silly things that happen because of the fog of war. It was an honest mistake that McLellan was to sluggish to capitalize on.

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

This was discussed in a thread a few months ago also. The South's troops may have been better but they were also outnumbered worse. Part of it depends on what Jackson does at 2nd Bull Run. He was almost crushed before Lee got there.

Even assuming Jackson loses but doesn't get totally stomped, Grant is likely to win a Shiloh type victory and keep Lee from heading North. Lincoln was looking to replace McClellan and he might very well give Grant command in early September.

If the troops don't have food then then the army of northern Virginia is is going to have problems. Is Grant smart enough to realize the importance of logistics here? If he kept Lee from successfully raiding Union supplies once in that area, does he realize that that is what they will be after? Does he decide to advanced toward, is it Gordonsville? Where does he go Southeast and try to hit Spotsylvania and advanced toward Richmond? If he surprises me by doing the latter I think he can take it. He would be a couple months early so he wouldn't have the mud problem that Burnside ran into. On the other hand, he would probably struggle to get across the North Anna. Unless he decides to do a siege of Petersburg early he probably decides that holding holding Spotsylvania is good enough and that having the North Anna as the frontier heading into 1863 is at least a lot better looking than what the Union did have.

Best case scenario, as was said in previous posts, is that Grant whittles them down and takes Richmond in June or July. Most likely it's later that summer or early fall, and it could be in to 1864 anyway because a siege of Petersburg would be harder with Virginia not as devastated by the war.

Meanwhile Pope is dumb and Sherman ends up being the one to take Vicksburg in summer of 1863.

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

Would McClellan go into overdrive intriguing against grant more than against Pope?

I mean, he already knew of the drunkenness accusations, and even refused to see grant in the early months of the war when McClellan was in Ohio to begin with.

 

[Elfwine]

He might not feel as threatened (for want of a better word, at least) by Grant as Pope - there's no "darling of the Radical Republicans I already dislike." element to intensify it.

 

[kaijudirector]

This was discussed in a thread a few months ago also.

May I ask where?

Is Grant smart enough to realize the importance of logistics here?

Definitely, he was a quartermaster during the Mexican War. And I'm sure that's why he was willing to let Sherman do the March to the Sea and Sheridan set the Shenandoah afire.

Meanwhile Pope is dumb and Sherman ends up being the one to take Vicksburg in summer of 1863.

Actually, I read somewhere that Pope was on friendly terms with Grant and Sherman, so he conceivably won't give the Fitz-John Porter treatment to Sherman if he screws up. I actually see a lot of Pope in both Sherman and Sheridan, the difference of course is that the former two are a lot more competent.

 

[DTF955Baseballfan]

May I ask where?

Here, in checking the link it wasn't a long discussion, just something that @Arnold d.c brought up as a possibility with Grant winning bigger at Shiloh. So, I hadn't even thought of it myself - the newness of the idea probably being what made me think there was more.

Of course, then you have the question of why is Grant sent east, is it because he learned some valuable lessons at Shiloh? Because Shiloh was the same but Pope did worse?

 

[kaijudirector]

Here, in checking the link it wasn't a long discussion, just something that @Arnold d.c brought up as a possibility with Grant winning bigger at Shiloh. So, I hadn't even thought of it myself - the newness of the idea probably being what made me think there was more.

Of course, then you have the question of why is Grant sent east, is it because he learned some valuable lessons at Shiloh? Because Shiloh was the same but Pope did worse?

Actually, my POD here was "Grant doesn't screw up as badly at Shiloh Day 1". I'm not going to get into the specifics, but I think you providing "Lew Wallace attacks from the rear" could have been one of the reasons why.

 

[Valentinian]

Like James T. Kirk , I don't like no win scenarios. Unfortunately, the Army of Virginia was as close as a Northern army faced during the Civil War. Given the totality of circumstances with a disgruntled AotP, incompetent corps level commanders under him, and a set of grossly unrealistic expectations placed upon him, not even Grant could have pulled a rabbit out of his hat. Hopefully, Grant does not get exile to Minnesota as a result like Pope did.

 

[wcv215]

Like James T. Kirk , I don't like no win scenarios. Unfortunately, the Army of Virginia was as close as a Northern army faced during the Civil War. Given the totality of circumstances with a disgruntled AotP, incompetent corps level commanders under him, and a set of grossly unrealistic expectations placed upon him, not even Grant could have pulled a rabbit out of his hat. Hopefully, Grant does not get exile to Minnesota as a result like Pope did.

Grant has significant military successes, no other serious setbacks if Shiloh is changed into a major success, and a powerful Congressional ally (from Lincoln’s home-state no-less). He might get sent back West, but I don’t see an exile here. Just return to the Mississippi front. And that’s at worst. Despite Lincoln’s reputation as a meddler he did stand by successful generals who weren’t full of themselves. Grant still qualifies on both counts.

And given that Lincoln’s opinion of Grant only improved after actually meeting him I don’t think that’s going to change here.

 

[Valentinian]

I agree that Lincoln wouldn't cast him aside. I could see Lincoln create something for him, such as a command on the coast, or Lincoln's pet project of an advance on East Tennessee (besides the Army of the Cumberland).