alternatehistory.com

The American Civil War was fought ultimately over slavery. All other concerns were ultimately ancillary and derived from slavery. However, the southern states seceded upon the election of a President who vowed not to abolish slabery but that it would expand no further under his administration, that the territories would all be free. This was unacceptable to the South, which felt that slavery needed to expand for political (for representation) and economic (to establish new plantations and find new, fertile and undegraded soil)

With secession, hadn't the Confederates actually accomplished Lincoln's work for him? Not that Lincoln would accept secession. But, by gutting the representation of slave states in Congress (and then, even moreso when the upper South seceded), there would be no chance that slavery would be utterly blocked from the territories. The Confederates would need to expand elsewhere, but there is no reason to think the Union would not support the defense of any other territories in the Americas. Plus, the resources of the Confederates would be far fewer than the combined Union, further hampering any expansionism.

So, in short, even if Lincoln had just let the Confeds go (in particular, the first wave), wouldn't the Confederacy be utterly screwed?
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