ACH/WI: Georg Anton Schäffer manages to take Hawaii

I was reading up about the Schäffer affair and was wondering if it would be possible for him to succeed, and if he did, what the effects of that would be.

Is there some way for him to succeed and for Hawaii to remain Russian up to the present day? If so, what are the butterflies from this?
 
You're making the rather common assumption, which I myself fell into before someone else pointed it out in another thread, that the Hawaiian islands all have to be taken over by the same country. If Schaffer is able to take several if them but then runs into difficulty like in our timeline it could end up with a number staying independent and possibly later coming under the power of another country. That could be rather amusing, half the chain owned by the Russians - either directly or indirectly via a People's Republic of Hawaii or an autonomous republic within Russia - and the other half the American both staring over the line at each other. :) The results of a communist Hawaii would be... interesting.

For the sake of argument assuming that they gain control of all of them if the US still take the Philippines, which I think is fairly likely, then the attack on Pearl Harbor becomes the attack on Manila and Subic Bays. Assuming that they lose the Philippine islands as in our timeline that means any ships that were sunk in harbour in shallow waters are lost and can't be recovered, it also pretty much pushes the Americans all the way back across the Pacific which is going to help bugger up their logistics something fierce.
 
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