ACH and WI: White Russian victory.

[Zoidberg12]

How could a White Russian victory be achieved? I understand that this may be a tougher one. As a understand there was allot if disunity between the many White Russian factions and other weaknesses compared to the Bolsheviks, but this could still work, but what would need to be changed?

I should say, if the Whites win, they could restore the Tsar, or maybe set up a republic. I image a struggle between liberals and conservatives, and I see the later winning out. This could lead to either an autocratic state or a full on dictatorship, mabye even a fascist esque one.

Allot of breakaway states will end up existing. There's just a ton of minorities that a weakened Russia will not be able to hold on to. They may have irredentist claims on these states, but they wont be able to do much about it.

Just my ideas. Any others?

 

[Evan]

The easiest way, I'd say, would be to butterfly away the whole Civil War by preempting the October Revolution. Perhaps Lenin returns to Russia later (if at all) and the Bolsheviks have merged with the Mensheviks and given up their idea of immediate revolution. Perhaps Lenin is arrested after the failed coup in the summer and the Bolsheviks are dispersed. One way or another, even if a later civil war happens (which I don't think would necessarily occur), all the factions left are "Whites."

 

[Tom_B]

How could a White Russian victory be achieved? I understand that this may be a tougher one. As a understand there was allot if disunity between the many White Russian factions and other weaknesses compared to the Bolsheviks, but this could still work, but what would need to be changed?

I should say, if the Whites win, they could restore the Tsar, or maybe set up a republic. I image a struggle between liberals and conservatives, and I see the later winning out. This could lead to either an autocratic state or a full on dictatorship, mabye even a fascist esque one.

Allot of breakaway states will end up existing. There's just a ton of minorities that a weakened Russia will not be able to hold on to. They may have irredentist claims on these states, but they wont be able to do much about it.

Just my ideas. Any others?

The Russian Civil War is an interesting topic but a very complicated one.

Three possibilities off the top of my head:

1] Lockhart Plot succeeds. The idea of Sidney Reilly ruling the Russian Empire whether overtly (admittedly borderline ASB) or covertly (more likely) amuses me

2] Brusilov backs the Whites. Probably emerges as either the central figure or at least part of a triumvirate

3] Kaplan kills Lenin (ironically option #1 probably requires that she doesn't shoot him) and the Bolsheviks fall apart without him

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Asbs are the easiest route.

Not required, likely, but the whites were nothing like unified, and their infighting helped the reds, afaik, as much as anything else.

My guess is its possible, but needs a pod before the fighting started.

 

[LNSS]

I once read about the subject, and I remember I had reached a conclsuion that a couple key victories and different decisions would have saved the whites.

Another option though, is maybe the Entente enforcing a modified version of the Brest-Litovs Treaty and guaranteeing the independence of Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic States, and providing more help to the whites through there.

Also maybe Kerensky would be the head of government of a Russian Republic, wasn't he supported by all factions?

 

[James G]

White Russian Victory

1) A victory for the White Russians would bring about, IMO, a vicious Bolskevik terrorist movement nationwide.
2) Russia would likely go to war with Japan too, out in the Far East where the Japanese had established control during the Civil War.
3) A winning White Russian Government would also probably soon be involved in wars across Eastern Europe with the Poles, the Baltic States, the western Ukraine at least.

 

[Zoidberg12]

The Russian Civil War is an interesting topic but a very complicated one.

Three possibilities off the top of my head:

1] Lockhart Plot succeeds. The idea of Sidney Reilly ruling the Russian Empire whether overtly (admittedly borderline ASB) or covertly (more likely) amuses me

2] Brusilov backs the Whites. Probably emerges as either the central figure or at least part of a triumvirate

3] Kaplan kills Lenin (ironically option #1 probably requires that she doesn't shoot him) and the Bolsheviks fall apart without him

These are all good ideas. Sidney Reilly, one of the many models for James Bond, involved in the White government would be an awesome spy novel. The idea with Brusilov could have some interesting butterflies.

1) A victory for the White Russians would bring about, IMO, a vicious Bolskevik terrorist movement nationwide.
2) Russia would likely go to war with Japan too, out in the Far East where the Japanese had established control during the Civil War.
3) A winning White Russian Government would also probably soon be involved in wars across Eastern Europe with the Poles, the Baltic States, the western Ukraine at least.

I very well could see a Bolshevist terrorist movement after a White Victory, though a White Russian Republic would probably be to weak to go against Japan or Eastern Europe, at least in the short term. A decade or two after their victory and they very well could be involved in more wars.

I also heard somewhere that one of the reasons Kerensky's government failed was because he wanted to continue fighting the Central Powers. What if he decides to make peace with the Germans, could this lessen the Bolshevik's support in any way?

 

[BBadolato]

Kerensky would have to look at reality and realize that the Russian Army is in no shape fight and get through his head to considering cutting his losses. If Brusilov was apart of the Government couldn't he have told the higher up how bad the Russian Army's situation really was?

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

How about Kornilov's coup against the republic being successful? Combined that with Kerensky's reluctance to release the Bolsheviks and that alone may help a bit.

 

[Krases]

Ive been kinda interested in in a realistic 'capitalist revolution' where after the whites win a tenuous victory a group of American industrialists come in as part of a deal to remake the Russian economy and modernize it. Could have some interesting results especially if some of these industrialists are big on agriculture.

 

[Enigmajones]

How about Kornilov's coup against the republic being successful? Combined that with Kerensky's reluctance to release the Bolsheviks and that alone may help a bit.

The Kornilov Coup did not exist. There is little evidence to support that a coup was in the works, and Kerensky had all the reason to get Kornilov out of the way. Now however, if Kerensky can compromise with Kornilov, then the Petrograd Soviet will hang from the street lamps, the Red Army forms but with a completely gutted leadership, the Bolsheviks are in dire straights in late 1917. Kornilov was widely admired throughout Russia, and with the Cossacks, under the incomparable Kaledin will likely become an efficient armed force.

The Bolsheviks main base of power was European Russia, and in a larger fashion central Russia. Moscow will likely not fall to the Reds at first, but I don't doubt that street fighting in Moscow would render the city unrecognizable. I'd like to continue this thought, but I have to leave, and this is basically the start of my timeline.

Also support for reinstating the Tsar was nil.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

I can imagine Kolchak emerging as the unlikely candidate to lead a White Russian government, and this kind of premise is what I am thinking of including in one of my current TLs.

 

[Enigmajones]

I can imagine Kolchak emerging as the unlikely candidate to lead a White Russian government, and this kind of premise is what I am thinking of including in one of my current TLs.

Kolchak is an obvious choice, but I think Wrangel is the better candidate.

 

[Cook]

One way or another, even if a later civil war happens (which I don't think would necessarily occur), all the factions left are "Whites."

Ah no, most of the factions would consist of the Green Russians.

 

[Enigmajones]

Ah no, most of the factions would consist of the Green Russians.

The Greens have the most to gain from a White victory. They control the power structure and if they handle the army right, there wont be a second Russian Civil War in the next ten years.

 

[Cook]

The Greens have the most to gain from a White victory.

Evan’s scenario was that there was no October Coup, in that situation any election to replace the Provisional government would have been dominated by the Green Russian factions.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

A White victory would require:
1. The Whites actually having popular support
2. Less soloing among the generals, a more unified command
3. A different attitude towards seceding territories, so they actually would get help from Finland, Poland, Baltic States etc.

A White victory would mean
1. Tensions between the generals and the Provisional Government (most generals were Conservative or Reactionary, while the Provisional Government was dominated by Liberals, Centrists and different types of non- Bolshevik Socialists). Risk: Military Coup
2. Tensions between the generals, tendencies towards territorialism. Risk: Warlordism
3. What to do with seceding areas. Which areas to let go, which to give some kind of autonomy, and which areas to crush militarily. Is Poland and Finland worth fighting for? Is Caucasus? Is Turkestan? What kind of relation to have with the Cossacks? With the people of the Ural? Risk: Prolonged war and ethnic conflicts
4. Foreign Policy towards the Great Powers. What kind of relation would Russia need to foster with the Great Powers? With the powers that aided the Whites such as Britain, France and the US? What kind of relation to have with Japan that aided the Whites, but only to secure interests in the Far East? What kind of relation to have with the Weimar Republic? Risk: Isolation
5. The economy? What kind of economic system to embrace? How to lift Russia up? How to industrialize? How to satisfy the need of the workers and poor peasants that won't go anywhere but are still deeply dissatisfied with status quo. Risk: Popular Uprisings

 

[Corjomc]

2 ideas

1. What if they were able to rescue the Czar?

Whichever faction did free him may have the means to make the others join their united front



2. What if the Whites win but not ALL of Russia? What if the Rodina splinters into 2 or more states?

 

[Tom_B]

The Night Stalker

I have an extremely hard time seeing Kolchak gaining power by himself. When I suggested Brusilov supporting the Whites and joining a triumvirate then Brusilov-Kolchak-Wrangel is an interesting possibility. While conservative Brusilov was not as rigid as the Night Stalker.

In no October Revolution scenarios you get Chernovist Russia for at least a few months. This would lead to a White vs Green Civil War with Lenin eventually making a move at some point.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Will Russia also be in danger of falling into a right wing dictatorship though? Assuming that the Brusilov-Kolchak-Wrangel triangle is kept, there will be a power struggle within these three men.