Accountability: The Fall of Bill Clinton

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January 25, 1998

It was going to be a relatively nice day, the high near 45. Sunday traffic was lighter in D.C., not that it mattered for the President’s motorcade. But despite having the ultimate right of way, it was still a few minutes behind schedule. Erskine Bowles was puttering in the lobby, honestly enjoying the brief respite. To say the previous few days were crazy was an understatement. Being White House Chief of Staff, arguably the second most powerful position in the country, Bowles had different tolerance levels than most people for stress, but this was of a different caliber.

The break was over when the black limousine rolled to a stop out front. Salutes from the Marine Guard signaled the President’s arrival as the doors opened. It almost smelled like spring. With him was Ron Klain, not unexpected but still a wrinkle. “Good morning, Mr. President. They’re waiting for you in the Oval Office.” Bowles strode along the President, who was giving his coat to his bagman.

“So, what do we expect to hear from them?” he said in his accent, different from Bowles’s own slight twang.

Bowles flipped open his notebook. “Well, we floated several names. If I had to short list it, I’d go with Pryor, Chiles, or Nunn. DeConcini, Wofford, and Schaefer seem less likely. Senators like other Senators. I’d say we’re good with all of them.”

The President stopped walking, “Chiles? Didn’t he heart surgery over a decade ago?”

“He's doing a good job as Governor now, and he was a Senator. The entire point of this list, sir, is to appoint somebody who can do the job but doesn’t want it. The list skews… greyer for that reason. You told me the goal was not to rock the boat. To be frank, unless we want to make it a fight, Republicans are holding all the cards on this.” Bowles had learned the blunt truth was best.

“Jesus,” the President sighed then kept walking, "We couldn't win a fight, not now." Klain was still following. They were almost to the Oval Office.

“Sir, Ron,” Bowles had to be blunt again, “it would be best if, Ron, you waited outside. We want to go in there like it is business as usual in the Oval.” There was an awkward pause before they agreed. Ron split off towards the private office.

The Oval Office was quiet, unusual for a room full of politicians. It had been a loud few weeks in Washington but enough had been said by then. Divided by party, Democrats and Republicans avoided making eye contact after the curt pleasantries. The room was a little cramp with the leadership of both houses of Congress stuffed on the furniture. Their staff had to wait in the Roosevelt Room.

Tom Daschle stared holes into the side of the Speaker’s head as he was whispering something to Trent Lott. “Anything we need to know over here?” Daschle asked, a clenched jaw betraying his level tone.

Speaker Gingrich turned and replied, “No… just chatting.” Gingrich looked like the cat who caught the canary. He then added, “Your guy is late” with a head gesture towards the empty Resolute Desk. Armey thought the symbolism was a good touch.

“Our guy is the President,” Daschle retorted.

Gingrich refrained from rolling his eyes at the Minority Leader’s emphasis. “Well… he’s still late.”

As if summoned, the door opened and in walked the President, followed by Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles. The relatively youthful President looked drained and tired from recent events. “Please be seated,” he requested, even though the room had barely attempted to stand in his presence. “Sorry to keep you waiting, but I hope we can be quick.” He circled around to the Resolute Desk but didn’t sit.

Nods of agreement were shared across the room. “I think we can be,” Daschle replied, “do our friends across the room agree?”

Lott confirmed, “Yes, Mr. President,” making the honorific sound like an insult.

President Al Gore had heard dozens of names suggested over the past few days. Even his predecessor had offered his opinion on the matter, unsolicited. Gore wondered if he had made a cursed wish, like on a monkey paw or something. He was President, but it had to be in the crudest way possible. “Thanks again Bill…" he thought while standing by the Resolute desk.

“Well, alright, who’s going to be Vice President then?” he asked.
You're off to a great start!
 
Some notes...

So the POD is when Linda Tripp set-up Monica Lewinsky to be detained, for lack of a better word, by the FBI and Starr's office, she does not enter the room with them. It was seen as odd in reflection that she would sit in on the interview. If Tripp didn't join, perhaps Lewinsky would've felt more pliable before she could get in touch with her mom or council. Lewinsky was still treated in probably an unprofessional way.

The fact that Lewinsky was cooperating and admitting to the matter gives more heft and validation to Michael Isikoff's story, which IOTL Newsweek refuse to run. The details about the internet publishing were all real concerns at the time. IOTL, Drudge was the first to publish the matter and instantly tainted the story as right-wing smear, despite the Post confirming it soon after. The 'blue dress' was known about that week IOTL, but sort of got buried in the initial reporting and didn't really break until Lewinsky's eventual cooperation.

Benjamin Netenyahu really was in DC when that story first broke. Richardson really did have the first crack in administration support, and Bowles was mortified about the scandal the entire time. The 1/23 Cabinet meeting IOTL was notable for the strong denials from the likes of Albright and other Cabinet members.

So, ITTL, the news breaks a bit earlier, with a more reputable source, with Lewinsky's cooperation and more details confirmed earlier. The total pressure is greater and snowballs the initial impact. I chose this point mostly because of the podcast Slow Burn. Its descriptions of Lewinsky's detainment and how close things were to tipping early were really evocative. Eli Atte in a brief interview for it also recalled how that week, basically everyone assumed Clinton was going to resign, that there was no way for him to survive.

To give a peek behind the kimono, I have ~35,000 words written of a rough draft through about 2020 ITTL, to varying degree of detail. My first draft had Sam Nunn as the choice for Vice President, but I changed it to Cohen in review, mostly for story reasons. What is noted above is true, that Gore and Cohen had a good working relationship, but more importantly he had gone through the extensive vetting for Defense Secretary and would be acceptable to the establishment of both parties. There will be those who disapprove and defect from confirmation, more notably for Democrats.
I knew that the photo with Nixon and Clinton was significant. There are a lot of parallels between these two in this TL.
 
After five years as Vice President, there was no doubt that Al Gore was as prepared as possible to fulfill the Presidency on ‘day one’. That being said, no one is really prepared. The office does not work like history’s recollection of it, with timelines of events laid out in clear succession, issues divided into ‘foreign’ and ‘domestic’. It all happens all at once. Immediately, Gore had to grapple with Iraq, Russia, Social Security, tax reform, the looming midterms, and the most salacious political scandal since Alexander Hamilton.

The first major pushback Gore faced was over his selection of Vice President, William Cohen. Gephardt’s comment in the Oval Office betrayed what became a bigger concern – a backlash from the Democratic base. The first major action Gore was trying to take in office was a sell-out of the party. The fact that it was unexpected or unconsidered by Gore spoke to mindset of the moment. While Cohen was a Republican moderate, for example being relatively pro-choice, he was still to the right of the Democratic caucus on most issues. President Gore and Cohen came to the agreement that Cohen would not publicly defend administration policies he did not genuinely support. While Clinton-Gore had been an effective tag-team for 7 years, Gore would not have the assumed backing of his Vice President on political matters.

The Cohen Senate hearings began in the in February and would be brief, but there was a larger revolt was in the House. Minority Leader Gephardt publicly supported the President, there was little effort to convince those skeptical in the caucus by House leadership. The White House went into overtime to back the President’s choice. Even Gore was frustrated by the issue, having his choice forced by the Republican majorities. After his Senate hearings, Cohen’s appointment was buoyed by an unexpected group – the Congressional Black Caucus. William Cohen’s wife, Janet Langhart, was a black woman. Langhart, a journalist, was known in DC circles and had a visible role, being dubbed the “First Lady of the Pentagon”. Langhart had sat behind her husband during the long sessions and an image of them embracing in the hearing room was seen across the country. The CBC decided that having Langhart as Second Lady would be a powerful symbol of racial change in the country.

While the Cohen hearings were happening, Republicans on the Hill and in the media were having a bit of a victory lap. But almost immediately they started asking “What did Gore know and when did he know it?” The Independent Counsel Ken Starr’s investigation was on-going, as was the Jones harassment suit. Gore had to immediately separate himself from any supposed wrongdoing that may have been happened. Through February, polling seemed favorable and the public of the opinion that Gore was not involved in Clinton’s shenanigans. The public persona of Gore, strait-laced and stiff, likely helped him dramatically in those early weeks. The National Prayer Breakfast on February 5th served as an excellent forum for Gore to praise family values and express his faith.

That same day, Ken Starr held a press conference, saying that the investigation was “moving very quickly” and that he expected a swift conclusion. Public polling showed a swift swing against his investigation. No decisions on prosecution against the now ex-President had been made, though. In the public relation wars, Clinton saw a sympathetic surge of approval out of office, and by 2 to 1 margin Americans said the Starr investigation should end now that Clinton resigned.

Without the cover of executive privilege, Clinton staffers like Sidney Blumenthal rapidly gave close door testimonies to the grand jury. By April, Starr submitted his report to House Judiciary Committee. While Clinton had committed actions that abused his office and were potential federal crimes, he decided to refrain from prosecution given his resignation. Ken Starr had motivated reasoning – he was eager to leave the important, but frankly grimy, work behind him and was in line to be the next dean at Pepperdine University Law School, and perhaps had one foot out the door. The House soon released the full report to the public on the internet by the end of April. While juicy and sensational, with Clinton already out of office, the Gore Administration looked to move past it quickly. The legal trouble was not over for Clinton, however, as the Jones harassment case was still an open and serious matter.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world kept spinning. Gore’s first days in office were met with a noticeable drop in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite. This mimicked the October 27, 1997 mini-crash and they returned to positive territory by the State of the Union. The economy was strong but there was always room for improvement. Al Gore had arguably been the most influential modern Vice President, with strong influence and domestic and foreign policy. But now he was the Commander-in-Chief, with all the added pressures.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s visit was Gore’s first high profile opportunity for statecraft. The Good Friday Agreement, which Clinton championed, would demonstrate America’s continued soft power abroad. Gore’s strong ties with Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin gave him a springboard towards strengthening ties with the former chief geopolitical rival, although the Ruble crisis brought uncertainties. The situation in the Balkans was still heated as Yugoslavia and its region Kosovo continued to clash, requiring active management with Europe and the Russians. Above all, the containment of Iraq would require close management. In the State of the Union, Gore had outlined Saddam Hussein’s continued efforts to obtain nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. But Hussein’s ambitions were controlled. Gore praised the United Nation’s efforts in containing those efforts and pledged continued US support. Despite the drama at home, the United States’ standing in the world remained strong and the federal budget was on target to run a surplus for the first time since the 1960s.

With the Starr investigation winding down, there was now enough air to stoke the flames of another. Since the 1996 election, a controversy had been nipping at the Democratic party, especially Gore. First prominently raised by a Los Angeles Times article, the possible effort of the Chinese to influence the Democratic Party gained new attention. In particular, fundraisers and donations were supposedly being funded from the People’s Republic of China directly to the Democrats in exchange for political favoritism.

It had been a sideshow of the continual “Clinton Wars” that had plagued the administration since inauguration. Being convoluted and boring compared to Clinton’s misdeeds, the scandal had not really garnered the same headlines. It was also a more complicated story, and some of the actors were associated with both Democratic and Republican officials like former Speaker Gingrich. The Republican House and Senate both had open investigations, as did the Justice Department. The House effort, led by Rep. Dan Burton, was largely seen as a farce, costing more than the Watergate investigation and producing few results. Burton would be further discredited after his own affair (resulting in a child out of wedlock) was made public.


The Senate investigation by the Committee on Governmental Affairs, on the other hand, made a bigger splash. Led by Senator Fred Thompson, former actor and from Gore’s home state of Tennessee, the Senate had maintained some more gravitas and sincerity in its efforts. Thompson immediately seized on the opportunity of additional media coverage when publishing the committee report in March. It was split down party lines, 8 to 7, with Senator John Glenn submitting a minority report for the Democrats. While, the report seemed to exonerate Gore of any explicit wrongdoing, Thompson used his new platform to lecture the country about the ‘unsavory character’ of the Democratic Party. While Clinton was gone, the rot was still there, seemed to be the message, with all eyes on the November midterm elections. Gore cancelled a trip to China that Clinton had been planning due to mounting political pressure. In June, the Justice Department would internally recommend an independent counsel to further investigate any alleged fund-raising abuses. This was refused by Attorney General Janet Reno.

William Cohen was eventually sworn-in as Vice President of the United States in early April. Only the crankiest voices on the left were still complaining about it. With Cohen in place and the Starr investigation winding down, Gore finally felt like he had some breathing room.

When it became the “Gore White House,” the entire staff had been picked by Clinton, albeit often with Gore’s input. Gore knew that he had to simultaneously maintain the status quo of an effective Executive Office and change enough to make it is his own. Messaging these changes would be just as important as the changes themselves. He had to clean house without looking like he was kicking anybody out, even if they were doing just that. Clinton’s Executive Office had been operating with two effective divisions – those managing scandal and those actually managing governance. Gore wanted to end that.

The first change was immediate as he brought on his Chief of Staff Ron Klain as a Special Advisor, with the obvious intent to move him to White House Chief of Staff when there was an opening. Franklin Raines’ resignation as Director of the Office of Management and Budget gave that opportunity. Erskine Bowles, who had proved effective at budget negotiations, slid over to OMB and Klain became Chief of Staff. Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations John Podesta, to not be sidelined, moved to White House Counsel after Charles Ruff resigned to private practice and provide legal services to private citizen Bill Clinton.

Two moves were also soon possible for his Cabinet. Secretary of Energy Federico Peña resigned in early June. Gore tapped the Deputy Elizabeth Moler to lead the department, which was welcomed internally as Peña was seen as an outsider and not fit for the role. The bigger break would come when Attorney General Janet Reno would resign in a few weeks later, supposedly on request from the President. Gore expected the move would make his administration appear more open and transparent. Reno had been a target of repeated attacks by Republicans. As a symbol of Clinton stonewalling, rightly or wrongly, her departure was supposed to be seen as a fresh start. In addition, it would give Gore the opportunity to highlight his own personal agenda by nominating Deputy AG Eric Holder as her replacement.


It was not an uncontroversial move. Democrats like James Carville said he was being a pushover. Republicans, although happy to see Reno gone, still publicly chastised the President for playing politics with the Justice Department. The Republican Senate seemed unwilling to even vote on the matter until July 24, when a gunman opened fire in the Capitol building, killing two United States Capitol Police officers. In a move of perhaps crass politicization, some Republicans realized that hamstringing the Justice Department after such a high-profile incident was not a good look and acquiesced. Holder was hammered in his hearings over his stands on affirmative action and other ‘special interest’ liberal positions but was undeniably qualified for the role and eventually was confirmed.

While the machinations of domestic life continued, America’s apparent invulnerability after the Cold War on the world stage would be challenged.
Things are heating up so far, and I like it!
 
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