Abyssinia Survives the Second Italo-Abyssinian War?

Whilst browsing the internet for an unrelated topic I stumbled across Dr. Brett Holman's Airminded blog a few days ago and one article in particular that caught my eye was The Emperor's Viceroy. Short version is that shortly after the start of the Second Italo-Abyssinian war agents for Abyssinia approached Airspeed in the UK to purchase the one-off Airspeed Viceroy which was a racing version of their Envoy transport aircraft that had been specially developed to take part in the England-Australia MacRobertson Air Race but due to technical problems was returned by the orderer. It turns out that the idea was for Abyssinia to use the converted transport as a fast bomber not unlike the later de Havilland Mosquito - which made a fair amount of sense since due to the the more powerful engines and mountings, enlarged fuel tanks, and other modifications it would have been much faster than any of the aircraft the Italians were using in the region - to attack and destroy the Italian oil storage tanks at Massawa to cripple their air and ground operations. The Italians were able to gain their victory before the plane could be moved out to Abyssinia so the idea came to nothing.

Suppose it hadn't though? Lets assume for the sake of the thread that either the Abyssinian government moves much faster when the war starts or the Walwal Incident/Abyssinia Crisis causes them to start the purchase beforehand, and that, perhaps to coincide with their Christmas Offensive, the Imperial Ethiopian Air Force is able to successfully bomb and destroy the oil tanks as Massawa. Apart from what's in the individual vehicle tanks and trucks the Italian armour and lorries taking part in the invasion are going to start running into major logistical problems, likewise the Royal Italian Air Force. The latter in particular is a boon to the Abyssinians since it was the Italian planes attacking their ground forces and the use of poison gas that caused them great problems. In our timeline Mussolini sent reinforcements after the Christmas Offensive so he likely still does here, the main challenge for the Italians is going to be trying to cobble together a replacement for a major section of their logistical chain. Do people think that Abyssinia had any chance of gaining a draw and surviving, albeit with some concessions, or were they doomed from the start?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
For Ethiopia an airforce was a long time investment even during the Italo- Abyssinian war considering hoe few people they had that actually could pilot a plane. They'd basically need to borrow most of their pilots from abroad.

Here's the Cold truth, since Adwa Italy had gone through alot of modernization, Ethiopia not that much. The Ethiopian army was still at this time various private armies of warlords and aristocrats with dubious loyalties.
 
The best way for Abyssinia to "survive" is Mussolini accepting Hoare-Laval on the spot, instead of loitering until the offer is withdrawn. Ethiopia is just too far behind to be able to oppose Italy; the war can go better or worse, but the end result is a given.
 
Actually the best way for Abyssinia to survive is if Britain block the Suez Canal for Italian ships.

They still would fall, abissinia couldn't defeat the italians, just delay the inevitable, we are talking about a 50 year technological difference, plus the fact that part of the abissinian army was controlled by local warlords
 
Top